Re: [CANSLIM] M

From: Spencer48@aol.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Mon, 25 Nov 2002 00:39:28 EST

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Andy:

     I believe I read in Barron's that the "bullish newsletter advisors" are 
those who are long term bulls-even though they may be short term and even 
intermediate term bears.  The conclusion I came to is that the distinction 
between bullish and bearish advisors is that the bearish ones believe that 
the market is headed for a long term (ie. more than 6 months) bear market; 
the bulls on the other hand think that-even though there might be bear 
corrections-a long term bull (with a duration of over 6 months) will come 
before the beginning of another long term bear will.  

     As far as your "gaming" comment, in general, I think less of the SEC 
than I do of independent advisors even though your comment may imply the 
opposite.   As for the AAII survey, it seems that your "cause and effect" is 
out of focus: it is not merely the "vote" of bearishness that causes the 
market to rally, it is the despondancy of investors due to a bear market that 
causes them to "vote" bearish, and which then leads (due to a turnabout in 
investor psychology and a lot of money on the sidelines) into a bull market.  

     By the way, it is ironically funny that the advisors, referred to in 
your E-mail, are accused of "gaming" the system with their dissemblings, when 
later it is suggested by you that you vote "bearish" just so that the market 
will turn into a bull.  

jans

In a message dated 11/23/2002 11:02:36 PM Eastern Standard Time, 
AJAskey@aol.com writes:

<< Here's a question:  who are these 50% bullish advisors?  I can't find 
anyone 
 who is really bullish.  Some, like me, are bullish now but will change in a 
 heartbeat if M turns against us.  But who besides Joe Battapaglia is really 
 bullish?  Don Hays says he is bullish be he has raise 11% cash in the past 
 few months (data from his site at <A HREF="http://www.haysmarketfocus.com">
http://www.haysmarketfocus.com</A>).

 Could it be that these investment advisors are hurting for clients and would 
 be committing career suicide by admitting bearishness?  How 'bout the AAII 
 survey. I vote bearish in that every week because everyone likes the number 
 low.  I'm just doing my part and I wonder how many are doing the same.  
These 
 two surveys appear to me to be one of the easiest things to game without 
fear 
 of the SEC. 

In a message dated 11/23/2002 7:35:08 PM Central Standard Time, 
Spencer48@aol.com writes:  
> What gives me pause about the near future strength of the market is 
> this:  The Investor's Intelligence Bullish Advisors are at 50%; the Bearish 
> 
> Advisors are below 30%.  These %s are very near bearish levels (based on 
> past 
> experience with the percentages).  This indicator, by the way, is in a 
> graphic at the bottom of The Big Picture page in IBD. >>

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