Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "kmalm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2002 11:43:46 -0600
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Hi Curt,
I think you've identified the stickier issues in CANSLIM and interpreting WON's
work. As both Tom and Andy have pointed out in their posts, while WON may *seem*
to be stating that ROE>=17 is a "minimum requirement' it turns out it is a
guidepost to lead you to better quality stocks. As with other indicators, this
is based on his historical view of winning stocks, meaning that "on average"
winning stocks had an ROE>=17. As with D/E, ROE can be misleading. For example,
if a company rejiggers their capital structure and increases their outstanding
shares, this will have an immediate impact on the ROE measure. Another way of
viewing it would simply be by asking a question. That is, if you were looking at
a stock and it had a "perfect" cup with handle (ok, it's theoretical!); high RS
Rank; an RS line making new highs; met all other earnings, sales and profit
margin guidelines, and broke out on 150% of ADV, would you pass it up because it
had an ROE of 16.5%? If so, why? Does the "low" ROE mean that it is not a good
company or a good stock?
Katherine
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Curt Corley
Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 6:45 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
Hi Katherine,
Thanks for your input. I agree with you and appreciate your interpretation of
HTTMIS for the most part. Although I did not mention it, I do compare D/E to
the other companies within the same industry. I depart from your
interpretation, however, regarding the meaning of the values. If I really want
to follow WON’s guidelines, I have to consider some of those values as solid
criteria to be met – not just “typical” or “average” values for winning stocks
over time. Take ROE for instance. According to my interpretation of the blue
book, Chapter 20 clearly states what the ROE should be before you buy a stock.
If the ROE is below that amount, it doesn’t even show up on my radar. And that’
s a good thing (at least for me), because I don’t have to devote time to find
excuses as to why it didn’t meet that criterion. For me: the more strict the
interpretation, the better. After devoting time to my family, my job, and other
obligations (not to mention the down-time I allow myself – including the time
spent on the CANSLIM Digest list), I don’t have very much time to devote to
fundamental and technical analysis of stock candidates. So I would prefer to
keep my stock candidates down to at least two dozen different stocks a week.
Once again, thanks for your input. As always, you’re an excellent contributor
to this list and one of the reasons the list will probably still be around 5
years from now.
Cheers,
Curt
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Wednesday, December 04, 2002 9:11 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
Hi Curt,
Thanks for the data on SXT and NXTL. I also agree with you about being a picky
investor and choosing only the best. I'd like to take exception, however, to the
idea that all the hurdles WON mentions in HTMMIS must be met simultaneously in
order for a stock to be considered "a good stock." WON provides guidelines for
each of the CANSLIM criteria, but these are "typical" or "average" values for
winning stocks over time. In other words, you are looking for the greatest
representation of strength from each of these categories, or what I call the
"preponderance of evidence" that the company is a leader, has been able to
generate growth in earnings and revenues, produces excellent profitability for
the capital employed, and has fuel for future growth. Take for example, the
tendency of accounting reporting to lag. By the time it is reported, it's past
history. The price of the stock, on the other hand, is anticipating future
earnings. So, if the technicals show sound accumulation and the preponderance of
evidence of fundamentals and due diligence shows a pattern of growth and
leadership, it's not necessary that each and every CANSLIM fundamental "typical"
recommendation be met.
I'm not arguing for NXTL...but I can use it as an example. 12 month EPS
is -2.10, however, this includes a value from 4 quarters ago of -2.25, a
bathtub quarter that included some unusual one time charges that couldn't be
backed out of the pro forma number. More importantly, however, the most recent 2
quarters have been a positive .35 and .55, showing 166% and 304% growth in
earnings over the same quarter in the prior year. As a result, the TTM ROE is
also going to lag. Now, you have 3 hurdles being missed simultaneously as a
result of one bathtub quarter (EPS growth, ROE and raw EPS) because each of
these accounting measures is inter-related. It also doesn't recognize the
*turnaround* in the pattern of earnings over the last 2 quarters, something WON
has talked about in the past as an important indicator after a company has gone
through tough times.
One last example, i.e., the hurdle for the D/E ratio. While WON suggests that
"lower is better" it is also important to compare the D/E to other stocks in the
same industry. For example, in highly capital intensive industries it is common
to carry a fairly high D/E ratio, as much of the physical plant and equipment is
financed through debt. It is not uncommon for companies to rejigger their
capital structure to take on more debt when interest rates are low. It's far
more important to determine if their earnings (and/or cash flow) are sufficient
to cover interest payments than it is to judge them on the D/E in and of itself.
There's much more to it than the brief examples I've given here, such as the
stage of the business and the evolution of their D/E during each phase of
maturity, etc., but it does demonstrate one more reason why writing off a
company simply because it's D/E is > 50% (or some other hurdle) is a dangerous
practice.
Katherine
----- Original Message -----
From: Curt Corley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 8:57 PM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
The web-based stock diagnosis service (located on a site that we all
know and love and which will remain nameless) gives these two stocks
high overall ratings. But I don't agree with the ratings.
I have Stock Investor Pro screener, and I set it up to look at all the
factors that WON mentions in his most recent edition of HTMMIS. Both
SXT and NXTL look extremely disappointing to me. Here's the list of
fundamentals that are below standard according to HTTMIS:
SXT:
(1) Compounded annual EPS growth from continuing operations over the
last 3 years is -5.1%.
(2) Twelve-month ROE is only 11.3%.
(3) Twelve-month Pretax profit margin is only 12.5%
(4) Twelve-month After-tax profit margin is down to 8.7% from 9.3% 3
years ago.
(5) Long-term Debt/Equity ratio for the most recent quarter is a
whopping 103.9! This is an all-time high.
(6) 12-month Cash-Flow per share is 1.2% less than 12-month EPS.
NXTL:
(1) 12-month EPS is -2.10.
(2) Compounded annual EPS growth from continuing operations over the
last 3 years is -12.6% (-27.9% over the last 5 years)
(3) Quarterly Sales is only 14.4%
(4) Annual sales growth is decelerating.
(5) Pretax profit margin is -18.1%
(6) After-tax profit margin is -37.2% (which is not near it's all-time
high)
(7) High Long-Term Debt/Equity ratio.
(8) 12-month Cash-Flow-Per-Share is -110% less than 12-month EPS.
I agree with the guidelines and rules set forth by WON, but I treat the
ratings with a grain of salt. According to a popular financial paper
(and its associated web site), there will always be 200 stocks out of
every 10,000 that are going to look good in each category -- no matter
what -- simply because they are in the top 20% of all stocks for that
category. In reality, there are currently less than 50 stocks that meet
all of the criteria set forth in HTMMIS. In fact, my pickiest WON stock
screen only came up with 15 stocks. After looking at the charts, the
pickings are even slimmer.
Now, I'm certainly not saying that there will be only 15 stocks that
will give you good returns. And I'm also not saying that you cannot
make good money using the unnamed paper and web site for a reference. I
subscribe to that paper myself. I do, however, believe you shouldn't
assume a stock in the top 20% has good fundamentals. I also believe you
can pick CANSLIM stocks a lot easier using a good stock screener.
Since most of us aren't burdened with the task of finding places to
invest millions of dollars, we can afford to be picky and buy only the
best.
Curt
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Jeff Mulder
Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 7:16 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
I'm not interested in SXT. I was responding to a request for technical
and
fundamental opinions regarding SXT and NXTL.
- Jeff
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Boyd" <theboyd@tisd.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 10:04 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
> Jeff,
>
> May I ask why you are interested in this stock? From my view point
there
> are many better looking charts and fundamentals out there than this
one.
> Just curious.
>
> Norm
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Jeff Mulder" <jeff@mulder.com>
> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 8:39 PM
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
>
>
> > SXT is in a better buying position now than a week ago. Price has
> tightened
> > up nicely while clarifying short-term support. However, as Tom
pointed
> out,
> > you probably won't get much juice from this one.
> >
> > SXT's group looks good. The Media General Industry Average is
> consolidating
> > at new highs.
> >
> > - Jeff
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <Vanchee1@aol.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2002 5:14 PM
> > Subject: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT
> >
> >
> > > Looking for a little feed back, but heres my thoughts, thinking
about
> > buying
> > > these two Mon.
> > > SXT 84/90 BAA, I like the chart, not too extended at this point.
Volume
> > has
> > > been slightly higher but not real great. Earning are good and they
have
> > been
> > > buying smaller companies that will provide some synergies. I know
there
> > are
> > > 47 mil shares outstanding but do not know what the float is, if
anyone
> has
> > a
> > > link to where I can find the float on different companies please
post,
> > > thanks.
> > >
> > > NXTL 80/99 ADA, chart also looks good, earnings are getting
better,
and
> > the
> > > company is doing a good job of paying down dept.
> > >
> > > Any feed back is appreciated.
> > >
> > > Thanks Chris
> > >
> > > -
> > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> > -
> > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
> >
> >
>
>
> -
> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
>
-
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D385273417-05122002>Hi Curt,</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D385273417-05122002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D385273417-05122002>I think you've identified the =
stickier=20
issues in CANSLIM and interpreting WON's work. As both Tom and Andy have =
pointed=20
out in their posts, while WON may *seem* to be stating that ROE>=3D17 =
is a=20
"minimum requirement' it turns out it is a guidepost to lead you to =
better=20
quality stocks. As with other indicators, this is based on his =
historical view=20
of winning stocks, meaning that "on average" winning stocks had an =
ROE>=3D17.=20
As with D/E, ROE can be misleading. For example, if a company rejiggers =
their=20
capital structure and increases their outstanding shares, this will have =
an=20
immediate impact on the ROE measure. Another way of viewing it would =
simply be=20
by asking a question. That is, if you were looking at a stock and it had =
a=20
"perfect" cup with handle (ok, it's theoretical!); high RS Rank; an RS =
line=20
making new highs; met all other earnings, sales and profit margin =
guidelines,=20
and broke out on 150% of ADV, would you pass it up because it had an ROE =
of=20
16.5%? If so, why? Does the "low" ROE mean that it is not a good company =
or a=20
good stock?</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D385273417-05122002></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D385273417-05122002>Katherine</SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Curt=20
Corley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, December 04, 2002 6:45 =
PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] NXTL,=20
SXT<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Hi=20
Katherine,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Thanks for =
your=20
input.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I agree with you =
and=20
appreciate your interpretation of HTTMIS for the most part.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Although I did not mention =
it, I do=20
compare D/E to the other companies within the same industry.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I depart from your =
interpretation,=20
however, regarding the meaning of the values.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>If I really want to follow =
<SPAN=20
class=3DSpellE>WON=92s</SPAN> guidelines, I have to consider some of =
those values=20
as solid criteria to be met =96 not just =93typical=94 or =
=93average=94 values for=20
winning stocks over time.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>Take=20
ROE for instance.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>According to my=20
interpretation of the blue book, Chapter 20 clearly states what the =
ROE should=20
be before you buy a stock.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>If the=20
ROE is below that amount, it doesn=92t even show up on my radar.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>And that=92s a good thing =
(at least for=20
me), because I don=92t have to devote time to find excuses as to why =
it didn=92t=20
meet that criterion.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>For me: the=20
more strict the interpretation, the better. After devoting time to my =
family,=20
my job, and other obligations (not to mention the down-time I allow =
myself =96=20
including the time spent on the CANSLIM Digest list), I don=92t have =
very much=20
time to devote to fundamental and technical analysis of stock =
candidates.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>So I would prefer to keep my =
stock=20
candidates down to at least two dozen different stocks a=20
week.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Once again, =
thanks=20
for your input.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>As =
always, you=92re=20
an excellent contributor to this list and one of the reasons the list =
will=20
probably still be around 5 years from =
now.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Cheers,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Curt<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Katherine =
Malm<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Wednesday,=20
December 04, 2002 9:11 AM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL,=20
SXT</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Hi=20
Curt,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Thanks for the data on SXT =
and NXTL. I=20
also agree with you about being a picky investor and choosing only the =
best.=20
I'd like to take exception, however, to the idea that all the hurdles =
WON=20
mentions in HTMMIS must be met simultaneously in order for a stock to =
be=20
considered "a good stock." WON provides guidelines for each of the =
CANSLIM=20
criteria, but these are "typical" or "average" values for winning =
stocks over=20
time. In other words, you are looking for the greatest representation =
of=20
strength from each of these categories, or what I call the =
"preponderance of=20
evidence" that the company is a leader, has been able to generate =
growth in=20
earnings and revenues, produces excellent profitability for the =
capital=20
employed, and has fuel for future growth. Take for example, the =
tendency of=20
accounting reporting to lag. By the time it is reported, it's past =
history.=20
The price of the stock, on the other hand, is anticipating future =
earnings.=20
So, if the technicals show sound accumulation and the preponderance of =
evidence of fundamentals and due diligence shows a pattern of growth =
and=20
leadership, it's not necessary that each and every CANSLIM fundamental =
"typical" recommendation be met.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">I'm not arguing for =
NXTL...but I can use=20
it as an example. 12 month EPS is -2.10, however, this includes a =
value=20
from 4 quarters ago of -2.25, a bathtub quarter that =
included some=20
unusual one time charges that couldn't be backed out of the pro forma =
number.=20
More importantly, however, the most recent 2 quarters have been a =
positive .35=20
and .55, showing 166% and 304% growth in earnings over the same =
quarter=20
in the prior year. As a result, the TTM ROE is also going to lag. Now, =
you=20
have 3 hurdles being missed simultaneously as a result of one bathtub =
quarter=20
(EPS growth, ROE and raw EPS) because each of these accounting =
measures is=20
inter-related. It also doesn't recognize the *turnaround* in the =
pattern of=20
earnings over the last 2 quarters, something WON has talked about in =
the past=20
as an important indicator after a company has gone through tough=20
times.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">One last example, i.e., the =
hurdle for=20
the D/E ratio. While WON suggests that "lower is better" it is also =
important=20
to compare the D/E to other stocks in the same industry. For example, =
in=20
highly capital intensive industries it is common to carry a fairly =
high D/E=20
ratio, as much of the physical plant and equipment is financed through =
debt.=20
It is not uncommon for companies to rejigger their capital structure =
to take=20
on more debt when interest rates are low. It's far more important to =
determine=20
if their earnings (and/or cash flow) are sufficient to cover =
interest=20
payments than it is to judge them on the D/E in and of itself. There's =
much=20
more to it than the brief examples I've given here, such as the stage =
of the=20
business and the evolution of their D/E during each phase of maturity, =
etc.,=20
but it does demonstrate one more reason why writing off a company =
simply=20
because it's D/E is > 50% (or some other hurdle) is a dangerous=20
practice.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Katherine<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; PADDING-RIGHT: 0in; BORDER-TOP: =
medium none; PADDING-LEFT: 4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; MARGIN: 5pt 0in 5pt =
3.75pt; BORDER-LEFT: black 1.5pt solid; PADDING-TOP: 0in; BORDER-BOTTOM: =
medium none">
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- Original Message =
- -----=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: =
0.5in"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcjcorley@hiwaay.net href=3D"mailto:cjcorley@hiwaay.net">Curt =
Corley</A>=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=20
Tuesday, December 03, 2002 8:57 =
PM<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> RE:=20
[CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">The web-based stock =
diagnosis service=20
(located on a site that we all<BR>know and love and which will =
remain=20
nameless) gives these two stocks<BR>high overall ratings. But =
I don't=20
agree with the ratings.<BR><BR>I have Stock Investor Pro screener, =
and I set=20
it up to look at all the<BR>factors that WON mentions in his most =
recent=20
edition of HTMMIS. Both<BR>SXT and NXTL look extremely =
disappointing=20
to me. Here's the list of<BR>fundamentals that are below =
standard=20
according to HTTMIS:<BR><BR>SXT: <BR>(1) Compounded annual EPS =
growth from=20
continuing operations over the<BR>last 3 years is -5.1%. =
<BR>(2)=20
Twelve-month ROE is only 11.3%. <BR>(3) Twelve-month Pretax =
profit=20
margin is only 12.5%<BR>(4) Twelve-month After-tax profit margin is =
down to=20
8.7% from 9.3% 3<BR>years ago.<BR>(5) Long-term Debt/Equity ratio =
for the=20
most recent quarter is a<BR>whopping 103.9! This is an =
all-time=20
high.<BR>(6) 12-month Cash-Flow per share is 1.2% less than 12-month =
EPS.=20
<BR><BR>NXTL:<BR>(1) 12-month EPS is -2.10.<BR>(2) Compounded annual =
EPS=20
growth from continuing operations over the<BR>last 3 years is -12.6% =
(-27.9%=20
over the last 5 years)<BR>(3) Quarterly Sales is only 14.4%<BR>(4) =
Annual=20
sales growth is decelerating.<BR>(5) Pretax profit margin is =
- -18.1%<BR>(6)=20
After-tax profit margin is -37.2% (which is not near it's=20
all-time<BR>high)<BR>(7) High Long-Term Debt/Equity ratio.<BR>(8) =
12-month=20
Cash-Flow-Per-Share is -110% less than 12-month EPS.<BR><BR>I agree =
with the=20
guidelines and rules set forth by WON, but I treat the<BR>ratings =
with a=20
grain of salt. According to a popular financial paper<BR>(and =
its=20
associated web site), there will always be 200 stocks out =
of<BR>every 10,000=20
that are going to look good in each category -- no matter<BR>what -- =
simply=20
because they are in the top 20% of all stocks for =
that<BR>category. In=20
reality, there are currently less than 50 stocks that meet<BR>all of =
the=20
criteria set forth in HTMMIS. In fact, my pickiest WON =
stock<BR>screen=20
only came up with 15 stocks. After looking at the charts,=20
the<BR>pickings are even slimmer.<BR><BR>Now, I'm certainly not =
saying that=20
there will be only 15 stocks that<BR>will give you good =
returns. And=20
I'm also not saying that you cannot<BR>make good money using the =
unnamed=20
paper and web site for a reference. I<BR>subscribe to that =
paper=20
myself. I do, however, believe you shouldn't<BR>assume a stock =
in the=20
top 20% has good fundamentals. I also believe you<BR>can pick =
CANSLIM=20
stocks a lot easier using a good stock screener. <BR><BR>Since =
most of=20
us aren't burdened with the task of finding places to<BR>invest =
millions of=20
dollars, we can afford to be picky and buy only=20
the<BR>best.<BR> <BR>Curt<BR><BR>-----Original =
Message-----<BR>From: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A><BR>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
On Behalf Of Jeff Mulder<BR>Sent: Tuesday, December 03, 2002 7:16 =
PM<BR>To:=20
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>Subject:=20
Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT<BR><BR>I'm not interested in SXT. I =
was=20
responding to a request for technical<BR>and<BR>fundamental opinions =
regarding SXT and NXTL.<BR><BR>- Jeff<BR><BR>----- Original Message=20
-----<BR>From: "Norman Boyd" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:theboyd@tisd.net">theboyd@tisd.net</A>><BR>To: =
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>Sent:=20
Sunday, December 01, 2002 10:04 PM<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] NXTL,=20
SXT<BR><BR><BR>> Jeff,<BR>><BR>> May I ask why you are =
interested=20
in this stock? From my view point<BR>there<BR>> are many =
better=20
looking charts and fundamentals out there than this<BR>one.<BR>> =
Just=20
curious.<BR>><BR>> Norm<BR>><BR>> ----- Original Message =
-----<BR>> From: "Jeff Mulder" <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:jeff@mulder.com">jeff@mulder.com</A>><BR>> To: =
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>>=20
Sent: Sunday, December 01, 2002 8:39 PM<BR>> Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM] NXTL,=20
SXT<BR>><BR>><BR>> > SXT is in a better buying position =
now than=20
a week ago. Price has<BR>> tightened<BR>> > up nicely =
while=20
clarifying short-term support. However, as =
Tom<BR>pointed<BR>>=20
out,<BR>> > you probably won't get much juice from this =
one.<BR>>=20
><BR>> > SXT's group looks good. The Media General =
Industry=20
Average is<BR>> consolidating<BR>> > at new highs.<BR>>=20
><BR>> > - Jeff<BR>> ><BR>> > ----- Original =
Message=20
-----<BR>> > From: <<A=20
href=3D"mailto:Vanchee1@aol.com">Vanchee1@aol.com</A>><BR>> =
> To:=20
<<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
><BR>>=20
> Sent: Saturday, November 23, 2002 5:14 PM<BR>> > Subject: =
[CANSLIM] NXTL, SXT<BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> > > =
Looking for=20
a little feed back, but heres my thoughts, thinking<BR>about<BR>> =
>=20
buying<BR>> > > these two Mon.<BR>> > > SXT 84/90 =
BAA, I=20
like the chart, not too extended at this point.<BR>Volume<BR>> =
>=20
has<BR>> > > been slightly higher but not real great. =
Earning are=20
good and they<BR>have<BR>> > been<BR>> > > buying =
smaller=20
companies that will provide some synergies. I know<BR>there<BR>> =
>=20
are<BR>> > > 47 mil shares outstanding but do not know what =
the=20
float is, if<BR>anyone<BR>> has<BR>> > a<BR>> > > =
link to=20
where I can find the float on different companies =
please<BR>post,<BR>>=20
> > thanks.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > NXTL 80/99 =
ADA, chart=20
also looks good, earnings are getting<BR>better,<BR>and<BR>> > =
the<BR>> > > company is doing a good job of paying down=20
dept.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > Any feed back is=20
appreciated.<BR>> > ><BR>> > > Thanks =
Chris<BR>> >=20
><BR>> > > -<BR>> > > -To =
subscribe/unsubscribe, email=20
"<A =
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
;=20
> > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> =
> >=20
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your =
email.<BR>> >=20
><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> ><BR>> > -<BR>> =
> -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
;=20
> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> >=20
-"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your =
email.<BR>>=20
><BR>> ><BR>><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> -To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>=
; -In=20
the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20
canslim". Do not use quotes in your =
email.<BR>><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To =
subscribe/unsubscribe,=20
email "<A=20
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href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim". Do=20
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email.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY=
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