Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2002 10:10:52 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0066_01C29DD8.EC9798D0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0067_01C29DD8.EC9798D0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0067_01C29DD8.EC9798D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS New construction rose 0.3% in October, above expectations of no change. = Most of the rise came from September being revised down. The good news / bad news story at the start of the week, and which = seemed to set the tone thereafter, was the ISM report on manufacturing = activity. Optimistic forecasts had put it rising from 48.5 in October to = an expansion level of 51.3. It did rise, but only to 49.2, giving us a = third consecutive month of contraction. New orders fell from 50.9 to = 49.9, as did the employment index falling to 43.8 from 45.0 and giving = an early warning of Friday's employment report. The three major car manufacturers reported drops in sales during = November from 12 to 18%, shouldn't have been a surprise to anyone. And = their bottom line has been severely hurt by all the incentives and zero = percent financing, which is a problem that will likely linger even after = sales pick up. Ford cut its revenue and earnings forecast for the 4th = quarter. Layoff announcements dropped 11% in November from October, but total job = cuts this year already total over 1.3 million, and new jobs still are = not being created. Third quarter productivity was revised upward to 5.1% from 4%, well = ahead of expectations of a revision to 4.5%. For the 12 month period = ending September, productivity rose 5.6%, best gain since Q1 of 1973. = Wonder how much of this reflects a fear syndrome, workers producing more = to avoid being the next one laid off?? Home refinancing fell sharply last week, down 26.8%, but was still = nearly 70% of all home loan business. By contrast, demand for loans to = buy a new house rose 10.4%. Factory orders rose 1.5% in October, partially offsetting the 2.4% drop = in September, and first increase since July. Expectations were for a = rise of 1.7%. Durable goods orders were revised down to 2.4% from the = earlier report of 2.8%. Continuing the trends we have seen for years of a shift to services vs = manufacturing, the ISM Service index was 57.4 for November vs 53.1 in = October, and well ahead of expectations for 54.0. This was the 10th = straight month of growth. Also continuing a trend of recent weeks, new claims for unemployment = dropped 13,000 to 355K, lowest in 21 months. Expectations were for a = rise in claims. The four week moving average fell to 376,500. In what was supposed to be the biggest story of the week, unemployment = rose to 6.0% while 40,000 jobs were lost. Expectations were for a = smaller rise to 5.8% from 5.7%, and job increases ranging from an = "official" forecast of 38-40 thousand jobs to a whisper number of 58 to = 100 thousand jobs. Last time we were at 6% was in April, before that it = was August 1994. No surprise, the sector losing the most jobs was = manufacturing, losing 45K jobs. Retail also lost 39K jobs. Where was = there gains? Service, up 50K. Govt also gained 8K jobs, most cost to the = taxpayers. Contrast this report to the three week decline in new = unemployment claims. Economists estimate that we need 125K new jobs = every month just to keep up with the number of new people entering the = labor force. To start truly lowering unemployment, this number will have = to be even higher. Only the timing was a surprise, and not by much. Treasury Secretary = O'Neill and Senior Economist Lindsey resign Friday, helping offset the = terrible employment report, and reversing the market in expectation of = more Presidential economic stimulus. After the Republican victory last = month, this was only a matter of time. Wall Street didn't like O'Neill, = and expectations are that the replacements will be more friendly, and = supportive of tax cuts and other stimulus. One high on the list, besides = making last year's tax cuts permanent, is eliminating the double = taxation on dividends. I vote to eliminate the corporate tax, treat = dividends as a pretax reduction of profits. Shareholders already have = the choice of buying stocks for growth, income, or a combination. Paying = tax on the income at the individual level seems inherently fair to me. = But corporations need to have the choice of deciding to reward = shareholders with part of the profits, or plow the money back into the = company (or year end bonuses for executives, fancy houses and fine art). = Even more important in my mind is a replacement for Pitt, we need a = strong leader for the SEC, as well as filling the vacancies on the = Accounting Board. Possible successors being mentioned for O'Neill are = Sen. Phil Gramm and Charles Schwab. Possibilities to replace Lindsey = include R. Glenn Hubbard and Martin Feldstein. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- FOMC Feds meet again Tuesday in what is expected to be a non-event. There is = a remote possibility that they might change the bias towards another = rate cut in the future. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend remained stable to = slightly declining. ALB - double bottom, at the pivot ARTI - very high handle, but strong growth ASGR - B5, strong growth ATRS - young LLUR?? CHCO - LLUR CHS - high handle, or second base on the previous handle? CTSH - B6 EXPD - nice b/o Thursday FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund MVL - c&h NTAI - high handle NXTL - c&h PCLE - B5, strong growth PETC - c&h PPD - c&h TSCO - LLUR TWP - high handle Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0067_01C29DD8.EC9798D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New construction rose 0.3% in October, above = expectations=20 of no change. Most of the rise came from September being revised=20 down.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The good news / bad news story at the start of = the week,=20 and which seemed to set the tone thereafter, was the ISM report on = manufacturing=20 activity. Optimistic forecasts had put it rising from 48.5 in October to = an=20 expansion level of 51.3. It did rise, but only to 49.2, giving us a = third=20 consecutive month of contraction. New orders fell from 50.9 to 49.9, as = did the=20 employment index falling to 43.8 from 45.0 and giving an early warning = of=20 Friday's employment report.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The three major car manufacturers reported drops = in sales=20 during November from 12 to 18%, shouldn't have been a surprise to = anyone. And=20 their bottom line has been severely hurt by all the incentives and zero = percent=20 financing, which is a problem that will likely linger even after sales = pick up.=20 Ford cut its revenue and earnings forecast for the 4th = quarter.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Layoff announcements dropped 11% in November = from October,=20 but total job cuts this year already total over 1.3 million, and new = jobs still=20 are not being created.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Third quarter productivity was revised upward to = 5.1% from=20 4%, well ahead of expectations of a revision to 4.5%. For the 12 month = period=20 ending September, productivity rose 5.6%, best gain since Q1 of 1973. = Wonder how=20 much of this reflects a fear syndrome, workers producing more to avoid = being the=20 next one laid off??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Home refinancing fell sharply last week, down = 26.8%, but=20 was still nearly 70% of all home loan business. By contrast, demand for = loans to=20 buy a new house rose 10.4%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Factory orders rose 1.5% in October, partially = offsetting=20 the 2.4% drop in September, and first increase since July. Expectations = were for=20 a rise of 1.7%. Durable goods orders were revised down to 2.4% from the = earlier=20 report of 2.8%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Continuing the trends we have seen for years of = a shift to=20 services vs manufacturing, the ISM Service index was 57.4 for November = vs 53.1=20 in October, and well ahead of expectations for 54.0. This was the 10th = straight=20 month of growth.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Also continuing a trend of recent weeks, new = claims for=20 unemployment dropped 13,000 to 355K, lowest in 21 months. Expectations = were for=20 a rise in claims. The four week moving average fell to = 376,500.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In what was supposed to be the biggest story of = the week,=20 unemployment rose to 6.0% while 40,000 jobs were lost. Expectations were = for a=20 smaller rise to 5.8% from 5.7%, and job increases ranging from an = "official"=20 forecast of 38-40 thousand jobs to a whisper number of 58 to 100 = thousand jobs.=20 Last time we were at 6% was in April, before that it was August 1994. No = surprise, the sector losing the most jobs was manufacturing, losing 45K = jobs.=20 Retail also lost 39K jobs. Where was there gains? Service, up 50K. Govt = also=20 gained 8K jobs, most cost to the taxpayers. Contrast this report to the = three=20 week decline in new unemployment claims. Economists estimate that we = need 125K=20 new jobs every month just to keep up with the number of new people = entering the=20 labor force. To start truly lowering unemployment, this number will have = to be=20 even higher.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Only the timing was a surprise, and not by much. = Treasury=20 Secretary O'Neill and Senior Economist Lindsey resign Friday, helping = offset the=20 terrible employment report, and reversing the market in expectation of = more=20 Presidential economic stimulus. After the Republican victory last month, = this=20 was only a matter of time. Wall Street didn't like O'Neill, and = expectations are=20 that the replacements will be more friendly, and supportive of tax cuts = and=20 other stimulus. One high on the list, besides making last year's tax = cuts=20 permanent, is eliminating the double taxation on dividends. I vote to = eliminate=20 the corporate tax, treat dividends as a pretax reduction of profits.=20 Shareholders already have the choice of buying stocks for growth, = income, or a=20 combination. Paying tax on the income at the individual level seems = inherently=20 fair to me. But corporations need to have the choice of deciding to = reward=20 shareholders with part of the profits, or plow the money back into the = company=20 (or year end bonuses for executives, fancy houses and fine art). Even = more=20 important in my mind is a replacement for Pitt, we need a strong leader = for the=20 SEC, as well as filling the vacancies on the Accounting Board. Possible=20 successors being mentioned for O'Neill are Sen. Phil Gramm and Charles = Schwab.=20 Possibilities to replace Lindsey include R. Glenn Hubbard and Martin=20 Feldstein.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>FOMC</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Feds meet again Tuesday in what is expected to be a non-event. = There is a=20 remote possibility that they might change the bias towards another rate = cut in=20 the future.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT = face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S=20 WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 remained stable to slightly declining.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ALB - double bottom, at the pivot</DIV> <DIV>ARTI - very high handle, but strong growth</DIV> <DIV>ASGR - B5, strong growth</DIV> <DIV>ATRS - young LLUR??</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>CHS - high handle, or second base on the previous handle?</DIV> <DIV>CTSH - B6</DIV> <DIV>EXPD - nice b/o Thursday</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>MVL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>NTAI - high handle</DIV> <DIV>NXTL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - B5, strong growth</DIV> <DIV>PETC - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PPD - c&h</DIV> <DIV>TSCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>TWP - high handle</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT></FONT= ></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:006501c29e02$d56b56e0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0067_01C29DD8.EC9798D0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0066_01C29DD8.EC9798D0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <006501c29e02$d56b56e0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm 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