Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2002 15:15:33 -0500
Previous Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Updated the Acc/Dis charts . . . "Fred Richards"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00F6_01C2A383.A5BC0080 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00F7_01C2A383.A5BC0080" - ------=_NextPart_001_00F7_01C2A383.A5BC0080 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Confirming what we have already been seeing in 2002, the ISM forecasts a = continued "jobless" economic recovery in 2003. They expect factory = revenues to grow by 5.4% compared to the 1.1% thus far in 2002. = Manufacturing capital spending is expected to increase 4.6%, but = employment is expected to shrink a further 0.6%. By contrast, the = service sector is expected to reduce capital spending by 0.4% while = increasing employment by 0.2%. Wholesaler's inventories fell 0.3% in October, first drop in 6 months. = Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% after the 0.4% jump in September. = Sales declined 0.1%, suggesting to me two things: wholesalers are = reacting faster to sales to prevent a glut of inventory; and inventories = overall are very low so any improvement in sales will ripple all the way = back to the producers. All businesses combined showed a 0.2% increase in = inventories, in line with expectations and below Sept's 0.6% increase. New claims for unemployment benefits rocketed right back up = unexpectedly, offsetting the equally unexpected drop in the prior week. = Both are due to govt difficulties in making seasonal changes due to the = Thanksgiving holiday. The 4 week average showed an increase of 10,000. = The Continuing claims had a huge drop of 165,000. While the media tries = to suggest this shows people are finding jobs, I find it far more likely = that it merely reflects the number of people losing unemployment = benefits, and dropping off the charts. Certainly, no economic report I = have seen suggests measurable job creation. Retail sales for November were much better than expected at the core = level (excluding autos) rising 0.5% vs expected 0.2%. Overall, sales = rose an expected 0.4%. Some of the biggest gains came in furniture and = building equipment / garden supplies (gardening in December??, gotta be = a Sun Belt thing!!). Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index beat expectations, rising = to 87.0 in mid-December from 84.2 in November. Expectations were a rise = to 85.0. The current conditions component rose to 95.9 from 93.1, while = the expectations component rose to 81.2 from 78.5. The market tanked on Friday thanks to a deflationary PPI Report showing = that producer prices fell 0.4% in November, expected was no change. That = does, however, partially offset the huge and unexpected jump of 1.1% in = October. The core rate was down 0.3%, mostly offsetting the 0.5% rise in = Oct. Expectations there as well were for no change. Energy prices = dropped 1.8% (won't happen in December, I think) and passenger car = prices dropped 3.6%. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend substantially = declined, reflecting "M". ASGR - B4 BGFV - c&h formed, new company so beware of pro forma earnings BSTE - c&h, but handle getting too old and even has a small c&h in the = long handle CCDC - 8 week consolidation CPG - LLUR, but rough. good sales growth, poor earnings as most go to = pay dividends (5.6% yield), REIT CRAY - B4, low priced CTSH - 8 week consolidation EBAY - nice c&h IDXC - deep cup, good growth, in my VR Fund MVL - c&h PCLE - B5+ QSII - B4 UMPQ - c&h, handle trending down, declining volume Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00F7_01C2A383.A5BC0080 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Confirming what we have already been seeing in = 2002, the=20 ISM forecasts a continued "jobless" economic recovery in 2003. They = expect=20 factory revenues to grow by 5.4% compared to the 1.1% thus far in 2002.=20 Manufacturing capital spending is expected to increase 4.6%, but = employment is=20 expected to shrink a further 0.6%. By contrast, the service sector is = expected=20 to reduce capital spending by 0.4% while increasing employment by=20 0.2%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesaler's inventories fell 0.3% in October, = first drop=20 in 6 months. Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% after the 0.4% jump in = September. Sales declined 0.1%, suggesting to me two things: wholesalers = are=20 reacting faster to sales to prevent a glut of inventory; and inventories = overall=20 are very low so any improvement in sales will ripple all the way back to = the=20 producers. All businesses combined showed a 0.2% increase in = inventories, in=20 line with expectations and below Sept's 0.6% increase.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment benefits rocketed = right back=20 up unexpectedly, offsetting the equally unexpected drop in the prior = week. Both=20 are due to govt difficulties in making seasonal changes due to the = Thanksgiving=20 holiday. The 4 week average showed an increase of 10,000. The Continuing = claims=20 had a huge drop of 165,000. While the media tries to suggest this shows = people=20 are finding jobs, I find it far more likely that it merely reflects the = number=20 of people losing unemployment benefits, and dropping off the charts. = Certainly,=20 no economic report I have seen suggests measurable job = creation.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Retail sales for November were much better than = expected=20 at the core level (excluding autos) rising 0.5% vs expected 0.2%. = Overall, sales=20 rose an expected 0.4%. Some of the biggest gains came in furniture and = building=20 equipment / garden supplies (gardening in December??, gotta be a Sun = Belt=20 thing!!).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index = beat=20 expectations, rising to 87.0 in mid-December from 84.2 in November. = Expectations=20 were a rise to 85.0. The current conditions component rose to 95.9 from = 93.1,=20 while the expectations component rose to 81.2 from 78.5.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The market tanked on Friday thanks to a = deflationary PPI=20 Report showing that producer prices fell 0.4% in November, expected was = no=20 change. That does, however, partially offset the huge and unexpected = jump of=20 1.1% in October. The core rate was down 0.3%, mostly offsetting the 0.5% = rise in=20 Oct. Expectations there as well were for no change. Energy prices = dropped 1.8%=20 (won't happen in December, I think) and passenger car prices dropped = 3.6%. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 substantially declined, reflecting "M".</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ASGR - B4</DIV> <DIV>BGFV - c&h formed, new company so beware of pro forma = earnings</DIV> <DIV>BSTE - c&h, but handle getting too old and even has a small = c&h in=20 the long handle</DIV> <DIV>CCDC - 8 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>CPG - LLUR, but rough. good sales growth, poor earnings as most go = to pay=20 dividends (5.6% yield), REIT</DIV> <DIV>CRAY - B4, low priced</DIV> <DIV>CTSH - 8 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>EBAY - nice c&h</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - deep cup, good growth, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>MVL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - B5+</DIV> <DIV>QSII - B4</DIV> <DIV>UMPQ - c&h, handle trending down, declining volume</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></FONT>= </FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:00f501c2a3ad$8e8fbe90$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00F7_01C2A383.A5BC0080-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00F6_01C2A383.A5BC0080 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00f501c2a3ad$8e8fbe90$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z 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