Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "inderjit" <inderjit@adelphia.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2002 23:08:42 -0500
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Hello
Just trying to figure out why it is so quite on this list?
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 3:16 PM
To: CANSLIM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
ECONOMICS
Confirming what we have already been seeing in 2002, the ISM forecasts a
continued "jobless" economic recovery in 2003. They expect factory
revenues to grow by 5.4% compared to the 1.1% thus far in 2002.
Manufacturing capital spending is expected to increase 4.6%, but
employment is expected to shrink a further 0.6%. By contrast, the
service sector is expected to reduce capital spending by 0.4% while
increasing employment by 0.2%.
Wholesaler's inventories fell 0.3% in October, first drop in 6 months.
Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% after the 0.4% jump in September.
Sales declined 0.1%, suggesting to me two things: wholesalers are
reacting faster to sales to prevent a glut of inventory; and inventories
overall are very low so any improvement in sales will ripple all the way
back to the producers. All businesses combined showed a 0.2% increase in
inventories, in line with expectations and below Sept's 0.6% increase.
New claims for unemployment benefits rocketed right back up
unexpectedly, offsetting the equally unexpected drop in the prior week.
Both are due to govt difficulties in making seasonal changes due to the
Thanksgiving holiday. The 4 week average showed an increase of 10,000.
The Continuing claims had a huge drop of 165,000. While the media tries
to suggest this shows people are finding jobs, I find it far more likely
that it merely reflects the number of people losing unemployment
benefits, and dropping off the charts. Certainly, no economic report I
have seen suggests measurable job creation.
Retail sales for November were much better than expected at the core
level (excluding autos) rising 0.5% vs expected 0.2%. Overall, sales
rose an expected 0.4%. Some of the biggest gains came in furniture and
building equipment / garden supplies (gardening in December??, gotta be
a Sun Belt thing!!).
Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index beat expectations, rising
to 87.0 in mid-December from 84.2 in November. Expectations were a rise
to 85.0. The current conditions component rose to 95.9 from 93.1, while
the expectations component rose to 81.2 from 78.5.
The market tanked on Friday thanks to a deflationary PPI Report showing
that producer prices fell 0.4% in November, expected was no change. That
does, however, partially offset the huge and unexpected jump of 1.1% in
October. The core rate was down 0.3%, mostly offsetting the 0.5% rise in
Oct. Expectations there as well were for no change. Energy prices
dropped 1.8% (won't happen in December, I think) and passenger car
prices dropped 3.6%.
_____
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It
is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's
"M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with
constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from
(and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is
strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views
or opinions of my employer.
I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better,
and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout
scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria,
focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my
personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no
due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM
patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases
(shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM
pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my
personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any
stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest.
The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend substantially
declined, reflecting "M".
ASGR - B4
BGFV - c&h formed, new company so beware of pro forma earnings
BSTE - c&h, but handle getting too old and even has a small c&h in the
long handle
CCDC - 8 week consolidation
CPG - LLUR, but rough. good sales growth, poor earnings as most go to
pay dividends (5.6% yield), REIT
CRAY - B4, low priced
CTSH - 8 week consolidation
EBAY - nice c&h
IDXC - deep cup, good growth, in my VR Fund
MVL - c&h
PCLE - B5+
QSII - B4
UMPQ - c&h, handle trending down, declining volume
Happy Hunting,
Tom Worley
<mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net> stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Hello<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'>Just trying to figure out why it is =
so
quite on this list?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial;mso-no-proof:yes'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><font size=3D2 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Arial'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D2 =
face=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original =
Message-----<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>From:</span></b>
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] <b><span
style=3D'font-weight:bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Tom Worley<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> =
</span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"12" Day=3D"14" Year=3D"2002"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Saturday, December 14, =
2002</span></font></st1:date><font
size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> </span></font><st1:time
Hour=3D"15" Minute=3D"16"><font size=3D2 face=3DTahoma><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>3:16 PM</span></font></st1:time><font size=3D2 =
face=3DTahoma><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'><br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> CANSLIM<br>
<b><span style=3D'font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [CANSLIM] =
Worley's
Weekend Weeview</span></font></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><strong><b><font =
size=3D3 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ECONOMICS</span></font></b><=
/strong><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Confirming what we have =
already been
seeing in 2002, the ISM forecasts a continued "jobless" =
economic
recovery in 2003. They expect factory revenues to grow by 5.4% compared =
to the
1.1% thus far in 2002. Manufacturing capital spending is expected to =
increase
4.6%, but employment is expected to shrink a further 0.6%. By contrast, =
the
service sector is expected to reduce capital spending by 0.4% while =
increasing
employment by 0.2%.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Wholesaler's inventories =
fell 0.3%
in October, first drop in 6 months. Expectations were for a rise of 0.1% =
after
the 0.4% jump in September. Sales declined 0.1%, suggesting to me two =
things:
wholesalers are reacting faster to sales to prevent a glut of inventory; =
and
inventories overall are very low so any improvement in sales will ripple =
all
the way back to the producers. All businesses combined showed a 0.2% =
increase
in inventories, in line with expectations and below Sept's 0.6% =
increase.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>New claims for unemployment =
benefits
rocketed right back up unexpectedly, offsetting the equally unexpected =
drop in
the prior week. Both are due to govt difficulties in making seasonal =
changes
due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The 4 week average showed an increase =
of
10,000. The Continuing claims had a huge drop of 165,000. While the =
media tries
to suggest this shows people are finding jobs, I find it far more likely =
that
it merely reflects the number of people losing unemployment benefits, =
and
dropping off the charts. Certainly, no economic report I have seen =
suggests
measurable job creation.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Retail sales for November =
were much
better than expected at the core level (excluding autos) rising 0.5% vs
expected 0.2%. Overall, sales rose an expected 0.4%. Some of the biggest =
gains
came in furniture and building equipment / garden supplies (gardening in
December??, gotta be a Sun Belt thing!!).</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><st1:place><st1:PlaceType><font
size=3D3 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Univ.</span></font></st1:Pla=
ceType><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'> of =
</span></font><st1:PlaceName><font
face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>Michigan</span></font></st1:PlaceName></st1:p=
lace><font
face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'>'s consumer sentiment =
index beat
expectations, rising to 87.0 in mid-December from 84.2 in November. =
Expectations
were a rise to 85.0. The current conditions component rose to 95.9 from =
93.1,
while the expectations component rose to 81.2 from =
78.5.</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'> <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The market tanked on Friday =
thanks
to a deflationary PPI Report showing that producer prices fell 0.4% in
November, expected was no change. That does, however, partially offset =
the huge
and unexpected jump of 1.1% in October. The core rate was down 0.3%, =
mostly
offsetting the 0.5% rise in Oct. Expectations there as well were for no =
change.
Energy prices dropped 1.8% (won't happen in December, I think) and =
passenger
car prices dropped 3.6%. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div class=3DMsoNormal align=3Dcenter =
style=3D'margin-left:.5in;text-align:center'><font
size=3D3 face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>
<hr size=3D2 width=3D"100%" align=3Dcenter>
</span></font></div>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><strong><b><font =
size=3D3 face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST =
WANNABES</span></font></b></strong>
<font face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>This list is in no way =
intended to
recommend any stocks to the group. It is a part of my regular personal
assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name =
implies,
only intended to identify some stocks with constructive chart patterns =
that may
be worth <strong><b><font color=3Dred face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial;
color:red'>WATCHING</span></font></b></strong><strong><b><font =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-family:Arial'> and learning =
from</span></font></b></strong> (and of
course doing your own due diligence). <em><b><i><font color=3Dblue =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-family:Arial;color:blue;font-weight:bold'>I am employed in
Operations by a =
</span></font></i></b></em></span></font><st1:country-region><st1:place><=
em><b><i><font
color=3Dblue face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial;color:blue;font-weight:
=
bold'>US</span></font></i></b></em></st1:place></st1:country-region><em><=
b><i><font
color=3Dblue face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:Arial;color:blue;font-weight:
bold'> Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my =
own
ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of =
my
employer.</span></font></i></b></em><font face=3DArial><span =
style=3D'font-family:
Arial'><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>I typically list stocks =
with both RS
and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing =
any
merger / acquisition / buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet
this general RS/EPS criteria, focusing on ones at or close to =
a new
12 month high. I consider all industry groups and prices, even those I =
will not
consider for my personal investing. I no longer will actively
consider earnings forecast for this year and next due the confusing =
data
presented by DGO. <font color=3Dred><span style=3D'color:red'>I do no =
due
diligence, that is your responsibility</span></font>. I will note any =
CANSLIM
patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat =
bases
(shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also =
note LLUR
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern.
Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal =
investing due
size, price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a =
current
personal financial interest.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>The population of stocks I =
am
reviewing this weekend substantially declined, reflecting =
"M".<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>ASGR - =
B4<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BGFV - c&h formed, new =
company
so beware of pro forma earnings<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>BSTE - c&h, but handle =
getting
too old and even has a small c&h in the long =
handle<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>CCDC - 8 week =
consolidation<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>CPG - LLUR, but rough. good =
sales
growth, poor earnings as most go to pay dividends (5.6% yield), =
REIT<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>CRAY - B4, low =
priced<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>CTSH - 8 week =
consolidation<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>EBAY - nice =
c&h<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>IDXC - deep cup, good =
growth, in my
VR Fund<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>MVL - =
c&h<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>PCLE - =
B5+<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>QSII - =
B4<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>UMPQ - c&h, handle =
trending
down, declining volume<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Happy =
Hunting,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'> <o:p></o:p></span></fo=
nt></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3D"Times New Roman"><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt'><img width=3D100 height=3D55 =
id=3D"_x0000_i1026"
src=3D"cid:image001.gif@01C2A621.3CF50F60" align=3Dbaseline =
border=3D0><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-left:.5in'><font size=3D3 =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-size:12.0pt;font-family:Arial'>Tom Worley<br>
</span></font><a href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><font =
face=3DArial><span
style=3D'font-family:Arial'>stkguru@bellsouth.net</span></font></a><br>
<font face=3DArial><span style=3D'font-family:Arial'>AIM: =
TexWorley</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
</div>
</body>
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