Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Fri, 20 Dec 2002 02:10:54 -0500

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jans,

I wouldn't put much weight in the low trailing PE, its 5 year range is 4 to
29, it doesn't have a history of trading at much of a premium to the market,
and is close to the high of that range now.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <Spencer48@aol.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, December 19, 2002 2:54 PM
Subject: Re: help with pivots: was Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

Katherine:

     With the mkt. being as it is-as you point out-I agree: I wouldn't buy
CEDC now.  As you observe: Most current BO's are failing nowadays.  However
(I'm looking at DGO), the funds (I'm assuming that they are the institutions
that matter.  If others also are relevant, why do you think that?) aren't
declining (Dec '01: 6; Mar '02: 9; June '02: 8; Sep '02: 9).

     On the daily, I see the wedging handle (however, I don't think that I
agree with you that CEDC has failed yet-although, as I mentioned, due to the
mkt., I wouldn't buy it now (as for selling it-I don't know if I'd do it
now.
I'd probably wait to see how it closes [vis a vis its range] on this high
ADV
day.

     The reason why I've put this stock on my Watchlist:  The weekly has a
very nice C&H.  There indeed was a BO on the weekly earlier this week, and
it
admittedly is now below the BO point; however, I'd see how CEDC functions
now.  For instance, I'd see how the stock acts relative to its right lip top
(which I put at 17.67).  Also, I like the slope of its relative strength
line; and 3-4 weeks ago the up 50 penetrated above the up 200.

     Also, fundamentally, debt is only 16% of equity, and mgt. owns 44% of
the company!.  Once funds recognize its chart for what it is (strong, in my
opinion) I believe they will start loading up on it (they now own only 5%).
And once that happens, with CEDC's relatively low PE (19) and its projected
earnings, I believe CEDC will rise quickly.

jans

In a message dated 12/19/2002 9:16:21 AM Eastern Standard Time,
kmalm@earthlink.net writes:

<< The real problem is that I can't find another decent chart in CEDC's
industry
 (all RS's in the 60's or lower and while some are struggling with a flat
line,
 there aren't any other stocks even attempting a breakout). Add that to a
net
 decline in institutional ownership, a sloppy (slightly wedging) handle and
a
 poor showing after an attempted breakout and I'd mark this one off as "high
 risk," particularly given current market conditions. Even the few breakouts
that
 are working are struggling to stay afoot. Maybe CEDC will pause here and
 consolidate, as it appears to be the leader in the group, but I'd be
surprised
 to see it move up with any conviction right away. >>

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