Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 21 Dec 2002 19:53:38 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0100_01C2A92A.A774B780 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0101_01C2A92A.A7772880" - ------=_NextPart_001_0101_01C2A92A.A7772880 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Industrial production rose 0.1% in November, reversing a small part of = October's decline. Capacity utilization was essentially unchanged at = 75.6%. Both were in line with expectations. Production of durable goods = jumped 2.8% including the 4.6% gain in autos and auto parts. The housing market, and concerns over a "bubble" continue to send mixed = signals. For November, housing starts increased 2.4% making up some of = October's decline, while permits for future construction fell 2.7%. = Overall the housing market continues on pace for its third consecutive = record year of growth. CPI increased 0.1% in November overall, core rose 0.2%. Both were = essentially in line with expectations. October trade deficit declined 5.5% to the lowest in 7 months, largely = attributed to the closure of the West Coast ports. New claims for unemployment declined 11,000 for the week while remaining = well over 400K (433K). The 4 week moving average, thanks to the large = spike in the prior week, moved back over 400K to 400,750. And continuing = claims jumped 229,000, offsetting prior declines, to a new total of 3.5 = million people currently in the labor pool drawing unemployment. Merry = Christmas!! The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.7% in = November, slightly ahead of expectations. 3rd quarter GDP remains unchanged in its final report at 4% growth. = However, forecasts for Q4 also remain in the low 1% category. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Over the past several weeks, I have been observing the markets behave = much like they did before October. Didn't matter if the news was good or = bad, applied to a single stock or an entire sector, one nation or = globally. Didn't even seem to matter what the news was, the market was = going south. It was nice since then to watch the markets shrug off bad = news, and respond favorably to legitimate good news, but didn't last. = The double bottom formation that every major index was exhibiting seems = to have progressed into hints of a triple bottom. Fears of the war = coming soon with Iraq, along with the level of unemployment and = continuing layoffs, seems to me to be the biggest fears laying on the = markets at present. Energy prices also remain high due the Iraqi war = premium built into the price of crude. Price spikes that will occur once = Iraq is invaded will be determined in magnitude and duration by both the = length of the war, and destructive actions that may be taken by Iraq on = the oil wells. Consumer spending seems to be finally slowing down, altho = not dramatically. However, the long awaited increase in corporate = spending is still being awaited. Corporate profits do appear to be = recovering, or at least not getting any worse. But Santa Claus forgot to = show up and start the rally. Charts clearly do not suggest a buying = opportunity right now, and likely will not if the trend and sentiment do = not change in the new year. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be = shrinking, altho at a slower rate. The majority once again are banks and = other financial institutions, with very little tech representation. ASGR - b/o from a rising flat base CHCO - B7 CPG - B5 EBAY - c&h ERES - handle rising on light volume IDXC - c&h, deep cup, handle forming MVL - nice looking c&h STN - c&h Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, keep your powder dry and good hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0101_01C2A92A.A7772880 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Industrial production rose 0.1% in November, = reversing a=20 small part of October's decline. Capacity utilization was essentially = unchanged=20 at 75.6%. Both were in line with expectations. Production of durable = goods=20 jumped 2.8% including the 4.6% gain in autos and auto = parts.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The housing market, and concerns over a "bubble" = continue=20 to send mixed signals. For November, housing starts increased 2.4% = making up=20 some of October's decline, while permits for future construction fell = 2.7%.=20 Overall the housing market continues on pace for its third consecutive = record=20 year of growth.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CPI increased 0.1% in November overall, core = rose 0.2%.=20 Both were essentially in line with expectations.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>October trade deficit declined 5.5% to the = lowest in 7=20 months, largely attributed to the closure of the West Coast = ports.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment declined 11,000 for = the week=20 while remaining well over 400K (433K). The 4 week moving average, thanks = to the=20 large spike in the prior week, moved back over 400K to 400,750. And = continuing=20 claims jumped 229,000, offsetting prior declines, to a new total of 3.5 = million=20 people currently in the labor pool drawing unemployment. Merry=20 Christmas!!</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic = Indicators rose 0.7% in November, slightly ahead of = expectations.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>3rd quarter GDP remains unchanged in its final = report at=20 4% growth. However, forecasts for Q4 also remain in the low 1% category. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Over the past several weeks, I have been = observing the=20 markets behave much like they did before October. Didn't matter if the = news was=20 good or bad, applied to a single stock or an entire sector, one nation = or=20 globally. Didn't even seem to matter what the news was, the market was = going=20 south. It was nice since then to watch the markets shrug off = bad=20 news, and respond favorably to legitimate good news, but didn't last. = The double=20 bottom formation that every major index was exhibiting seems to have = progressed=20 into hints of a triple bottom. Fears of the war coming soon with Iraq, = along=20 with the level of unemployment and continuing layoffs, seems to me to be = the=20 biggest fears laying on the markets at present. Energy prices also = remain high=20 due the Iraqi war premium built into the price of crude. Price spikes = that will=20 occur once Iraq is invaded will be determined in magnitude and duration = by both=20 the length of the war, and destructive actions that may be taken by Iraq = on the=20 oil wells. Consumer spending seems to be finally slowing down, altho not = dramatically. However, the long awaited increase in corporate spending = is still=20 being awaited. Corporate profits do appear to be recovering, or at least = not=20 getting any worse. But Santa Claus forgot to show up and start the = rally. Charts=20 clearly do not suggest a buying opportunity right now, and likely = will not=20 if the trend and sentiment do not change in the new year. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT = face=3DArial><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears to be shrinking, altho at a slower rate. The majority once again = are=20 banks and other financial institutions, with very little tech=20 representation.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ASGR - b/o from a rising flat base</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - B7</DIV> <DIV>CPG - B5</DIV> <DIV>EBAY - c&h</DIV> <DIV>ERES - handle rising on light volume</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, deep cup, handle forming</DIV> <DIV>MVL - nice looking c&h</DIV> <DIV>STN - c&h</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, keep your powder dry and good=20 hunting,</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT><= /FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00ff01c2a954$904abf80$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0101_01C2A92A.A7772880-- - 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