Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Qwest research
Date: Wed, 25 Dec 2002 07:06:08 -0500
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Qwest research Spencer48@aol.com
Top of Thread: [CANSLIM] Qwest research "Pritish Shah"
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Hi Pritish, my comment was based only on the news and fundamentals, compared to how the stock has behaved recently. The FCC already approved their entry into long distance service, so that is already priced in (and may be part of the reason for the rally, in expectation that it could lead to reduced losses and eventual profits). Likewise, the news of accounting irregularities, and the restatement of $1.5 billion in revenues and costs is known, as is the continuing SEC investigation. The specific news that caught my curiosity was S&P downgrading their bonds to "selective default", combined with their plans to issue more bonds at higher interest rates in an attempt to reduce their debt load by $1.9 billion. So while their total debt may decrease, the cost of servicing that debt may not reduce proportionately due the higher interest rates on the new bonds. With revenues decreasing, and losses increasing, it looked to me like the rally to nearly $6 was overdone, and if actual default occurred, it could lead to bankruptcy and a stock price approaching zero. Add to that the costs and distractions associated with the shareholder lawsuits over the accounting irregularities, and its not a pretty picture to me. But I have not done in depth due diligence, nor am likely to do so or short it. Was just curious if anyone else out there was following it closer. - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Wednesday, December 25, 2002 1:31 AM Subject: [CANSLIM] Qwest research Tom, It seems that this went through a cup and a handle pattern. The base seems 6-7 months long though it has been sloppy. The RS has been increasing. It gapped up on heavy volume and did not violate that gap. The volume dried up in the base while forming the right side of the cup. Maybe finally the USWest purchase may be paying off. Plus, isn't the FCC supposed to rule on the long-distance offering by the bells? To me the chart looks very bullish. Ofcourse, I am inexperienced. Can you tell us why you feel that this could be a short candidate? http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=Q,uu[w,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc6 0][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G Regards, Pritish - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Previous Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Qwest research Spencer48@aol.com
Top of Thread: [CANSLIM] Qwest research "Pritish Shah"
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