[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview


From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2002 08:55:47 -0500

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ECONOMICS
Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November while income increased =
0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected.

Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer sentiment for December =
shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with expectations. =
Current conditions, and expectations, components also showed gains in =
line with expectations.

Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, down 1.4%, almost =
completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more concern =
to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still, =
expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October =
report was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? =
Non-defense capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital =
spending still long awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise =
in October of 5.9%. The only sector to post a gain was computers / =
electronic products, up 0.3% on top of the 3.5% of the prior month. =
However, computers by themselves fell 3.7%, while communications =
equipment rose 1.4%.

Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where the November CPI =
dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive month of =
declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average =
spending was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really =
appreciate all the US consumers that keep on spending more than they are =
making, and keeping the Japanese export based economy at least on life =
support.=20

In another throwback to uncertainty and unpredictability, the new claims =
figure for initial unemployment claims came in below expectations, down =
60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it well under 400K once =
again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, staying over =
400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was honest =
enough to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can =
cause the reported numbers to "swing widely".=20

New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% increase in November, a =
new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. Forecast had =
been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. Average =
price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from October.

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
"M" (as in Merry Christmas)
Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the party. There's no doubt =
now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for down markets, =
first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that we started =
Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't quite =
get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in =
the news a lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we =
getting ready to start another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the =
former Soviet Union, various South American countries (if you count =
massively armed guerrilla groups moonlighting with some drug smuggling). =
Then there's the price of energy, crude up about 50% for the year, but =
hey, any day now we will whip the socks off the Iraqis, take over their =
country, and pump all their oil out to the world at giveaway prices. And =
Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be back to full =
production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate America =
needs to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a =
qizillion new workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, =
and unemployment will plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, =
earnings will soar even before sales begin to pick up. Then again, what =
if? What if 2002 is not the end of it, and the markets are down again in =
2003?? Now that hasn't happened since the 1929-1932 era. Didn't our =
parents (or for you kids out there, grandparents) call that The Great =
Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't have been the =
soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could taste =
that good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled =
with record unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other =
financial institutions, along with the loss of people's life savings. =
Hummm, sounds a little like Japan today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't =
happen again, could it? Don't we learn from our mistakes? Like Korea, =
Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? September 11th? The Great =
Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? Global Crossing?

While I can hope for a lot of things from the new year, that's only =
wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us what can't =
happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to us =
just what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but =
the market can and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, =
if I am only patient and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can =
trust in the markets. Keep the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all =
it does right now is say stay in cash.

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

CONGRESS
I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress decided =
it didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before =
they adjourned for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various =
government agencies went thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five =
quarter" fiscal year, so that the new government year would end =
September 30, and give our elected Representatives and Senators plenty =
of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without disruption to the many =
agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the second quarter =
of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the budget for =
the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the =
same way, start working on their November reelection the following =
January?? As it is, 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits =
today, because Congress recessed without dealing with an extension of =
benefits.  And another 95,000 will be added each following week. Next =
Tuesday, the government program for flood insurance ends, and no new =
policies can be written until, and unless, they restart it retroactive. =
How many more govt programs are affected, all because our elected =
officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do their job? =
Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major =
project already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter =
fiscal year is the answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it =
would work this time. But what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) =
letting Congress know what we think of their priorities and attention to =
their job. Just as every business must have a business plan, and a =
budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too must our government.

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It =
is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's =
"M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with =
constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from =
(and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in =
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views =
or opinions of my employer.

I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, =
and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout =
scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, =
focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all =
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast =
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no =
due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM =
patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases =
(shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR =
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my =
personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any =
stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest.

The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be once =
again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again populate the list, =
just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their own.

APOL - c&h
BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, =
volume wrong in original handle
CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim
CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining
FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR Fund, =
low priced
GIL - weak triple bottom
GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot
HLTH - c&h
IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund
IRM - B3
MVL - c&h
NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR Fund
NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining
PCLE - 8 week consolidation
PORT - B2
PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom
SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes?
SSYS - c&h, low priced
STN - c&h, no growth on top line?
UCBH - B5
UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down
UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle

Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year


Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November =
while income=20
increased 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer =
sentiment for=20
December shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with=20
expectations. Current conditions, and expectations, components also =
showed gains=20
in line with expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, =
down 1.4%,=20
almost completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more =
concern=20
to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still,=20
expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October =
report=20
was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? =
Non-defense=20
capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital spending =
still long=20
awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise in October of 5.9%. =
The=20
only sector to post a gain was computers / electronic products, up 0.3% =
on top=20
of the 3.5% of the prior month. However, computers by themselves fell =
3.7%,=20
while communications equipment rose 1.4%.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where =
the=20
November CPI dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive =
month of=20
declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average =
spending=20
was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really appreciate all =
the US=20
consumers that keep on spending more than they are making, and keeping =
the=20
Japanese export based economy at least on life support. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another throwback to uncertainty and =
unpredictability,=20
the new claims figure for initial unemployment claims came in below=20
expectations, down 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it =
well=20
under 400K once again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, =
staying=20
over 400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was =
honest enough=20
to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can cause the =

reported numbers to "swing widely". </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% =
increase in=20
November, a new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. =
Forecast=20
had been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. =
Average=20
price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from=20
October.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>
<HR>
"M" (as in Merry Christmas)</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the =
party.=20
There's no doubt now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for =
down=20
markets, first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that =
we=20
started Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't =
quite=20
get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in =
the news a=20
lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we getting ready =
to start=20
another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the former Soviet Union, =
various=20
South American countries (if you count massively armed guerrilla groups=20
moonlighting with some drug smuggling). Then there's the price of =
energy, crude=20
up about 50% for the year, but hey, any day now we will whip the socks =
off the=20
Iraqis, take over their country, and pump all their oil out to the world =
at=20
giveaway prices. And Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be =
back to=20
full production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate =
America needs=20
to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a qizillion =
new=20
workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, and =
unemployment will=20
plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, earnings will soar even =
before=20
sales begin to pick up. Then again, what if? What if 2002 is not the end =
of it,=20
and the markets are down again in 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since =
the=20
1929-1932 era. Didn't our parents (or for you kids out there, =
grandparents) call=20
that The Great Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't =
have been=20
the soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could =
taste that=20
good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled with =
record=20
unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other financial =
institutions,=20
along with the loss of people's life savings. Hummm, sounds a little =
like Japan=20
today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't happen again, could it? Don't we =
learn=20
from our mistakes? Like Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? =
September=20
11th? The Great Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? =
Global=20
Crossing?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While I can hope for a lot of things from the =
new year,=20
that's only wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us =
what=20
can't happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to =
us just=20
what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but the =
market can=20
and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, if I am only =
patient=20
and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can trust in the markets. =
Keep=20
the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all it does right now is say =
stay in=20
cash.</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV><STRONG>CONGRESS</STRONG></DIV>
<DIV>I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress =
decided it=20
didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before they =
adjourned=20
for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various government =
agencies went=20
thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five quarter" fiscal year, so =
that the=20
new government year would end September 30, and give our elected =
Representatives=20
and Senators plenty of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without =
disruption=20
to the many agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the =
second=20
quarter of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the =
budget for=20
the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the =
same way,=20
start working on their November reelection the following January?? As it =
is,=20
800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits today, because =
Congress=20
recessed without dealing with an extension of benefits.&nbsp; And =
another 95,000=20
will be added each following week. Next Tuesday, the government program =
for=20
flood insurance ends, and no new policies can be written until, and =
unless, they=20
restart it retroactive. How many more govt programs are affected, all =
because=20
our elected officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do =
their=20
job? Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major =
project=20
already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter fiscal year =
is the=20
answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it would work this =
time. But=20
what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) letting Congress know what we =
think=20
of their priorities and attention to their job. Just as every business =
must have=20
a business plan, and a budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too =
must our=20
government.</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT =
face=3DArial><FONT=20
face=3DArial><STRONG>
<HR>
WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any =
stocks to=20
the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health =
of=20
CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some =
stocks=20
with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of =
course doing=20
your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed =
in=20
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly=20
my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or =
opinions of=20
my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS =
ranking of 80=20
or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition =
/=20
buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet =
this&nbsp;general&nbsp;RS/EPS=20
criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I =
consider all=20
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal=20
investing. I&nbsp;no longer will&nbsp;actively consider&nbsp;earnings =
forecast=20
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your =
responsibility</FONT>. I will=20
note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&amp;h, double (or triple) =
bottoms, or=20
flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also =
note LLUR=20
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely=20
are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due =
size,=20
price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a =
current=20
personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this =
weekend=20
appears to be once again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again =
populate=20
the list, just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their=20
own.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>APOL - c&amp;h</DIV>
<DIV>BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, =
volume=20
wrong in original handle</DIV>
<DIV>CEDC - c&amp;h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim</DIV>
<DIV>CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining</DIV>
<DIV>FCFS - c&amp;h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR =
Fund,=20
low priced</DIV>
<DIV>GIL - weak triple bottom</DIV>
<DIV>GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot</DIV>
<DIV>HLTH - c&amp;h</DIV>
<DIV>IDXC - c&amp;h, deep cup, in my VR Fund</DIV>
<DIV>IRM - B3</DIV>
<DIV>MVL - c&amp;h</DIV>
<DIV>NSCN - c&amp;h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR =
Fund</DIV>
<DIV>NSDA - c&amp;h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining</DIV>
<DIV>PCLE - 8 week consolidation</DIV>
<DIV>PORT - B2</DIV>
<DIV>PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom</DIV>
<DIV>SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes?</DIV>
<DIV>SSYS - c&amp;h, low priced</DIV>
<DIV>STN - c&amp;h, no growth on top line?</DIV>
<DIV>UCBH - B5</DIV>
<DIV>UMPQ - c&amp;h, 6 week handle, volume down</DIV>
<DIV>UOPX - c&amp;h, 6 week handle</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></=
FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" =
hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:008f01c2ae78$d28d0140$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20
border=3D0></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: =

TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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