From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2002 08:55:47 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Big Money AGAIN, oh dear! Hay look Andy! "Tom Worley"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10" - ------=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November while income increased = 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected. Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer sentiment for December = shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with expectations. = Current conditions, and expectations, components also showed gains in = line with expectations. Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, down 1.4%, almost = completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more concern = to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still, = expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October = report was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? = Non-defense capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital = spending still long awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise = in October of 5.9%. The only sector to post a gain was computers / = electronic products, up 0.3% on top of the 3.5% of the prior month. = However, computers by themselves fell 3.7%, while communications = equipment rose 1.4%. Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where the November CPI = dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive month of = declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average = spending was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really = appreciate all the US consumers that keep on spending more than they are = making, and keeping the Japanese export based economy at least on life = support.=20 In another throwback to uncertainty and unpredictability, the new claims = figure for initial unemployment claims came in below expectations, down = 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it well under 400K once = again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, staying over = 400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was honest = enough to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can = cause the reported numbers to "swing widely".=20 New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% increase in November, a = new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. Forecast had = been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. Average = price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from October. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" (as in Merry Christmas) Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the party. There's no doubt = now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for down markets, = first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that we started = Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't quite = get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in = the news a lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we = getting ready to start another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the = former Soviet Union, various South American countries (if you count = massively armed guerrilla groups moonlighting with some drug smuggling). = Then there's the price of energy, crude up about 50% for the year, but = hey, any day now we will whip the socks off the Iraqis, take over their = country, and pump all their oil out to the world at giveaway prices. And = Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be back to full = production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate America = needs to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a = qizillion new workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, = and unemployment will plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, = earnings will soar even before sales begin to pick up. Then again, what = if? What if 2002 is not the end of it, and the markets are down again in = 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since the 1929-1932 era. Didn't our = parents (or for you kids out there, grandparents) call that The Great = Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't have been the = soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could taste = that good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled = with record unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other = financial institutions, along with the loss of people's life savings. = Hummm, sounds a little like Japan today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't = happen again, could it? Don't we learn from our mistakes? Like Korea, = Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? September 11th? The Great = Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? Global Crossing? While I can hope for a lot of things from the new year, that's only = wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us what can't = happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to us = just what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but = the market can and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, = if I am only patient and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can = trust in the markets. Keep the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all = it does right now is say stay in cash. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- CONGRESS I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress decided = it didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before = they adjourned for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various = government agencies went thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five = quarter" fiscal year, so that the new government year would end = September 30, and give our elected Representatives and Senators plenty = of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without disruption to the many = agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the second quarter = of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the budget for = the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the = same way, start working on their November reelection the following = January?? As it is, 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits = today, because Congress recessed without dealing with an extension of = benefits. And another 95,000 will be added each following week. Next = Tuesday, the government program for flood insurance ends, and no new = policies can be written until, and unless, they restart it retroactive. = How many more govt programs are affected, all because our elected = officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do their job? = Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major = project already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter = fiscal year is the answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it = would work this time. But what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) = letting Congress know what we think of their priorities and attention to = their job. Just as every business must have a business plan, and a = budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too must our government. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be once = again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again populate the list, = just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their own. APOL - c&h BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, = volume wrong in original handle CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR Fund, = low priced GIL - weak triple bottom GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot HLTH - c&h IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund IRM - B3 MVL - c&h NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR Fund NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining PCLE - 8 week consolidation PORT - B2 PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes? SSYS - c&h, low priced STN - c&h, no growth on top line? UCBH - B5 UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November = while income=20 increased 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer = sentiment for=20 December shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with=20 expectations. Current conditions, and expectations, components also = showed gains=20 in line with expectations.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, = down 1.4%,=20 almost completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more = concern=20 to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. Worse still,=20 expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this mean the October = report=20 was flawed, and November's report simply caught up the error? = Non-defense=20 capital goods, which is often a measure of corporate capital spending = still long=20 awaited, fell 2.2% excluding aircraft against a rise in October of 5.9%. = The=20 only sector to post a gain was computers / electronic products, up 0.3% = on top=20 of the 3.5% of the prior month. However, computers by themselves fell = 3.7%,=20 while communications equipment rose 1.4%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where = the=20 November CPI dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive = month of=20 declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. Average = spending=20 was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should really appreciate all = the US=20 consumers that keep on spending more than they are making, and keeping = the=20 Japanese export based economy at least on life support. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another throwback to uncertainty and = unpredictability,=20 the new claims figure for initial unemployment claims came in below=20 expectations, down 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking it = well=20 under 400K once again. But the 4 week average crept up 2,500 to 404.5K, = staying=20 over 400K for the second week. At least one Labor Dept analyst was = honest enough=20 to admit that the seasonal "adjustments" this time of year can cause the = reported numbers to "swing widely". </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% = increase in=20 November, a new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in October. = Forecast=20 had been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage rates were credited. = Average=20 price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over year, but down 2.9% from=20 October.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> "M" (as in Merry Christmas)</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the = party.=20 There's no doubt now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for = down=20 markets, first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year that = we=20 started Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? Guess we didn't = quite=20 get it right, kept practicing in Korea (haven't I been seeing them in = the news a=20 lot lately), Vietnam, Mid East (wait a minute, aren't we getting ready = to start=20 another war over there?), Bosnia, parts of the former Soviet Union, = various=20 South American countries (if you count massively armed guerrilla groups=20 moonlighting with some drug smuggling). Then there's the price of = energy, crude=20 up about 50% for the year, but hey, any day now we will whip the socks = off the=20 Iraqis, take over their country, and pump all their oil out to the world = at=20 giveaway prices. And Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be = back to=20 full production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate = America needs=20 to jump start all their companies, double production, hire a qizillion = new=20 workers to staff the double shifts they will be running, and = unemployment will=20 plunge to a record zero percent. And, of course, earnings will soar even = before=20 sales begin to pick up. Then again, what if? What if 2002 is not the end = of it,=20 and the markets are down again in 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since = the=20 1929-1932 era. Didn't our parents (or for you kids out there, = grandparents) call=20 that The Great Depression?? Like, what was so great about it, couldn't = have been=20 the soup lines in the freezing cold, I don't believe any soup could = taste that=20 good. Maybe it was the sense of community, as everyone struggled with = record=20 unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other financial = institutions,=20 along with the loss of people's life savings. Hummm, sounds a little = like Japan=20 today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't happen again, could it? Don't we = learn=20 from our mistakes? Like Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? = September=20 11th? The Great Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? = Global=20 Crossing?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While I can hope for a lot of things from the = new year,=20 that's only wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us = what=20 can't happen next year, or what will, only time will actually reveal to = us just=20 what is going on. I can't tell the market what it SHOULD do, but the = market can=20 and will tell me what it IS doing, right then, right now, if I am only = patient=20 and listen. That is the only pure truth that I can trust in the markets. = Keep=20 the faith, CANSLIM still works, even if all it does right now is say = stay in=20 cash.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>CONGRESS</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress = decided it=20 didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget just before they = adjourned=20 for their summer long recess / vacation. So the various government = agencies went=20 thru a lot of hoops and gyrations with a "five quarter" fiscal year, so = that the=20 new government year would end September 30, and give our elected = Representatives=20 and Senators plenty of time to pass a new fiscal year budget without = disruption=20 to the many agencies affected. It is now nearly January, start of the = second=20 quarter of the current fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the = budget for=20 the present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the = same way,=20 start working on their November reelection the following January?? As it = is,=20 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment benefits today, because = Congress=20 recessed without dealing with an extension of benefits. And = another 95,000=20 will be added each following week. Next Tuesday, the government program = for=20 flood insurance ends, and no new policies can be written until, and = unless, they=20 restart it retroactive. How many more govt programs are affected, all = because=20 our elected officials in Washington had better things to do, than to do = their=20 job? Would your boss let you go on several weeks vacation with a major = project=20 already three months late? I don't think another 5 quarter fiscal year = is the=20 answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it would work this = time. But=20 what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) letting Congress know what we = think=20 of their priorities and attention to their job. Just as every business = must have=20 a business plan, and a budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too = must our=20 government.</DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT = face=3DArial><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> = </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears to be once again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again = populate=20 the list, just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their=20 own.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>APOL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, = volume=20 wrong in original handle</DIV> <DIV>CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim</DIV> <DIV>CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR = Fund,=20 low priced</DIV> <DIV>GIL - weak triple bottom</DIV> <DIV>GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot</DIV> <DIV>HLTH - c&h</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>IRM - B3</DIV> <DIV>MVL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR = Fund</DIV> <DIV>NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - 8 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>PORT - B2</DIV> <DIV>PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom</DIV> <DIV>SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes?</DIV> <DIV>SSYS - c&h, low priced</DIV> <DIV>STN - c&h, no growth on top line?</DIV> <DIV>UCBH - B5</DIV> <DIV>UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down</DIV> <DIV>UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></= FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" = hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:008f01c2ae78$d28d0140$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0091_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0090_01C2AE4E.E9C79B10 Content-Type: image/gif; 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