Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Dave Cameron <dfcameron@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 28 Dec 2002 08:19:51 -0800 (PST)
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Gee, Tom, why don't you tell us what you REALLY think. ;-) I think we need a big catalyst here to get the markets rolling again - - and soon... - --- Tom Worley <stkguru@bellsouth.net> wrote: > ECONOMICS > Consumer spending increased 0.5% in November while income increased > 0.3%. both were a tenth better than expected. > > Univ. of Michigan's final report on consumer sentiment for December > shows a gain to 86.7 over November's 84.2 and in line with > expectations. Current conditions, and expectations, components also > showed gains in line with expectations. > > Durable goods orders for November fell sharply, down 1.4%, almost > completely wiping out the sharp gain of 1.7% in October. Of more > concern to me is that the drop was pretty much across all sectors. > Worse still, expectations were for a gain of about 0.8%. Does this > mean the October report was flawed, and November's report simply > caught up the error? Non-defense capital goods, which is often a > measure of corporate capital spending still long awaited, fell 2.2% > excluding aircraft against a rise in October of 5.9%. The only > sector to post a gain was computers / electronic products, up 0.3% > on top of the 3.5% of the prior month. However, computers by > themselves fell 3.7%, while communications equipment rose 1.4%. > > Deflation remains alive and well in Japan, where the November CPI > dropped another 0.8% year over year, the 38th consecutive month of > declines. And expectations were for a slightly greater decline. > Average spending was down 3.4% year over year, guess they should > really appreciate all the US consumers that keep on spending more > than they are making, and keeping the Japanese export based economy > at least on life support. > > In another throwback to uncertainty and unpredictability, the new > claims figure for initial unemployment claims came in below > expectations, down 60,000 instead of the expected 20K or so, taking > it well under 400K once again. But the 4 week average crept up > 2,500 to 404.5K, staying over 400K for the second week. At least > one Labor Dept analyst was honest enough to admit that the seasonal > "adjustments" this time of year can cause the reported numbers to > "swing widely". > > New home sales were up again, this time a 5.7% increase in > November, a new monthly record, and offsetting the 4% drop in > October. Forecast had been for a decline . As usual, low mortgage > rates were credited. Average price was $218,900, up 5.8% year over > year, but down 2.9% from October. > > - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > "M" (as in Merry Christmas) > Well, for sure Santa failed to show up for the party. There's no > doubt now that 2002 will mark the third consecutive year for down > markets, first time since 1941. Hummm, 1941, wasn't that the year > that we started Pearl Harbor Day, and the War To End All Wars?? > Guess we didn't quite get it right, kept practicing in Korea > (haven't I been seeing them in the news a lot lately), Vietnam, Mid > East (wait a minute, aren't we getting ready to start another war > over there?), Bosnia, parts of the former Soviet Union, various > South American countries (if you count massively armed guerrilla > groups moonlighting with some drug smuggling). Then there's the > price of energy, crude up about 50% for the year, but hey, any day > now we will whip the socks off the Iraqis, take over their country, > and pump all their oil out to the world at giveaway prices. And > Venezuela will elect a new leader any day, and be back to full > production the next day. And, of course, that's all corporate > America needs to jump start all their companies, double production, > hire a qizillion new workers to staff the double shifts they will > be running, and unemployment will plunge to a record zero percent. > And, of course, earnings will soar even before sales begin to pick > up. Then again, what if? What if 2002 is not the end of it, and the > markets are down again in 2003?? Now that hasn't happened since the > 1929-1932 era. Didn't our parents (or for you kids out there, > grandparents) call that The Great Depression?? Like, what was so > great about it, couldn't have been the soup lines in the freezing > cold, I don't believe any soup could taste that good. Maybe it was > the sense of community, as everyone struggled with record > unemployment, and the collapse of many banks and other financial > institutions, along with the loss of people's life savings. Hummm, > sounds a little like Japan today (or maybe Enron). Nah, couldn't > happen again, could it? Don't we learn from our mistakes? Like > Korea, Vietnam, Desert Storm? Pearl Harbor? September 11th? The > Great Depression? Desert Storm Revisited? Enron? Worldcom? Global > Crossing? > > While I can hope for a lot of things from the new year, that's only > wishful thinking. While the market pundits sit and tell us what > can't happen next year, or what will, only time will actually > reveal to us just what is going on. I can't tell the market what it > SHOULD do, but the market can and will tell me what it IS doing, > right then, right now, if I am only patient and listen. That is the > only pure truth that I can trust in the markets. Keep the faith, > CANSLIM still works, even if all it does right now is say stay in > cash. > > - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > CONGRESS > I am of the era that was a part of the government when Congress > decided it didn't like being pressured into passing a new budget > just before they adjourned for their summer long recess / vacation. > So the various government agencies went thru a lot of hoops and > gyrations with a "five quarter" fiscal year, so that the new > government year would end September 30, and give our elected > Representatives and Senators plenty of time to pass a new fiscal > year budget without disruption to the many agencies affected. It is > now nearly January, start of the second quarter of the current > fiscal year, and Congress has yet to pass the budget for the > present year. What if they handled their reelection campaign the > same way, start working on their November reelection the following > January?? As it is, 800,000 Americans lose their unemployment > benefits today, because Congress recessed without dealing with an > extension of benefits. And another 95,000 will be added each > following week. Next Tuesday, the government program for flood > insurance ends, and no new policies can be written until, and > unless, they restart it retroactive. How many more govt programs > are affected, all because our elected officials in Washington had > better things to do, than to do their job? Would your boss let you > go on several weeks vacation with a major project already three > months late? I don't think another 5 quarter fiscal year is the > answer, didn't work last time, no reason to think it would work > this time. But what might work is the boss (us taxpayers) letting > Congress know what we think of their priorities and attention to > their job. Just as every business must have a business plan, and a > budget, when it starts its fiscal year, so too must our government. > > - -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES > This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the > group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health > of CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to > identify some stocks with constructive chart patterns that may be > worth WATCHING and learning from (and of course doing your own due > diligence). I am employed in Operations by a US Broker Dealer, > however everything presented by me is strictly my own ideas and in > no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of my > employer. > > I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or > better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / > acquisition / buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet this > general RS/EPS criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 > month high. I consider all industry groups and prices, even those I > will not consider for my personal investing. I no longer will > actively consider earnings forecast for this year and next due the > confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that is > your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such > as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx > where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower > Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. > Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal > investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any stocks > in which I have a current personal financial interest. > > The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be > once again declining. I expect a lot of banks to again populate the > list, just because they have fallen more slowly, or even held their > own. > > APOL - c&h > BWS - potential 2nd base on the handle, but the cup poor, too deep, > volume wrong in original handle > CEDC - c&h, but lacks a run up prior to the left rim > CHCO - LLUR, earnings growing nicely, but sales declining > FCFS - c&h, 1st b/o failed, back nearly to the handle, in my VR > Fund, low priced > GIL - weak triple bottom > GNTX - double bottom, trying to stay over the pivot > HLTH - c&h > IDXC - c&h, deep cup, in my VR Fund > IRM - B3 > MVL - c&h > NSCN - c&h below highs, volume declining, owned and in my VR Fund > NSDA - c&h below highs, in my VR Fund, volume declining > PCLE - 8 week consolidation > PORT - B2 > PSUN - holding the b/o from a double bottom > SMG - B4, future success thanks to all the new homes? > SSYS - c&h, low priced > STN - c&h, no growth on top line? > UCBH - B5 > UMPQ - c&h, 6 week handle, volume down > UOPX - c&h, 6 week handle > > Happy Hunting, and good luck in the New Year > > > Tom Worley > stkguru@bellsouth.net > AIM: TexWorley ===== Dave Cameron dfcameron@yahoo.com __________________________________________________ Do you Yahoo!? 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