Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 4 Jan 2003 10:04:24 -0500
Previous Article (by Author): Re: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again "Rolf Hertenstein"
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00D0_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00D1_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0" - ------=_NextPart_001_00D1_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS The Chicago region NAPM index (often a precursor of the national ISM = index) slipped more than expected in December, dropping to 51.3 from = 54.3 in Nov. Expected was 53.0, still expanding but at a slower rate. It = was under 50 in both Sept and Oct, after expanding for the 7 months = prior, and ending an 18 month streak of contraction. The employment = component, however, increased sharply to 50.3 from 43.3. The prices paid = component also jumped, to 62.1 from 57.2, and could be a warning flag of = coming pricing pressures (which could eat further into corporate = profits) or an inflationary threat (if corporations this time can = succeed in raising prices to consumers). In a surprising reversal, the national ISM Index went the other way, = rising to 54.7 from 49.2 and soundly beating expectations for the first = rise in four months. The new orders component was the primary cause, up = to 63.3 percent from 49.9% in November. The employment component also = improved to 47.4 from 43.8 (rate of layoffs are slowing down). While it made good press, "Housing Sales Fall 3.5%", the November sales = results for existing homes was still the sixth busiest month on record. = The "seasonally adjusted" annual rate ended up at 5.56 million units = compared to expectations of 5.63 million, and down from October's 5.76 = million. Spending on new construction beat expectations, rising 0.3% (expected = was unchanged) to over $843 billion annually. Residential construction = set a new record, breaking $421 billion. And October's prior report was = revised upward from a gain of 0.3% to a new 1.0% increase. In what was a most fitting end to 2002, the Consumer Confidence Index = fell to 80.3 for December, down from November's 84.9, marking the sixth = fall in the past 7 months. Retailers were already well aware of this, as = Christmas sales were well below expectations and forecasts, even with = the surge late in the month. Dramatically, the Present Situations Index = went from 78.3 down to 69.9, while the Future Expectations Index slipped = another two points to 87.2. The unemployment picture was cited as the = biggest factor. Weekly new claims for unemployment rose above expectations, adding = 13,000 to 403K vs an expected increase to 391K. Prior week was also = revised up from 378K to 390K. The 4 week moving average also soared to = 418,750 from 407,500, however continuing claims dropped for the second = week by 50,000 (either because they found a job, or worse, are no longer = eligible or gave up looking). Next Friday's Employment report is expected to show overall unemployment = remaining at 6% with only 20,000 new jobs created. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" The DOW ended its worst year since 1977, down nearly 17%. The other = indexes fared about the same. It was the third year in a row of = declines, 1st for that in over 60 years. Nasdaq had its worst December = ever, down 9.7%. Crude oil prices rose over 50% for the year and = threaten to derail whatever weak economic recovery is taking place both = in the USA and throughout the globe. And oil prices are likely to go = higher still with the war with Iraq, and may stay there unless it is a = relatively brief conflict with little damage to Iraq's oil industry. = OPEC is finally suggesting it will increase production to offset the = loss of crude from Venezuela. Gold is waving a great big INFLATION flag, = and there have been a few other warnings of this as well. N. Korea is = lighting off its nuclear capability, and the USA is too busy with Iraq = to do much about it right now. Unemployment remains high, may go higher, = and so far no sign of measurable jobs creation. Companies are still = laying off people, or even closing (my employer included in the latter). = What a dismal way to start a new year. Yet the market commentators still = promise us better times ahead by the second half of 2003, just like they = did a year ago. If their jobs depended on the accuracy of their = prognostications, guess unemployment would be even higher. With all that = gloom and doom, where's the bright spot? The charts, of course. Listen = to what the stock markets are trying to tell us, and so far they are not = threatening new lows. The economy is certainly weakening again, but not = like the past two years, at least so far. Interest rates are low, which = will allow corporations with heavy debt, but a good business, to retire = a lot of higher yielding bonds and lower their costs. That's tough for = the retirees living on what they make from their fixed income = investments, but hopefully some of them cashed in the capital gains = before their bonds were called. And dividends are coming back into vogue = as well. One day this bear will end, and those that protect and conserve = their capital now, and don't try to force the market, will again have = their day. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest. The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend appears to be = stable to declining. ACS - triple bottom APOL - c&h COCO - LLUR, but volatile CTSH - LLUR EUNI - c&h, in my VR Fund FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund IDXC - deep c&h, in my VR Fund MVL - c&h PCLE - B9 PFCB - c&h, long handle WCS - c&h Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00D1_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Chicago region NAPM index (often a precursor = of the=20 national ISM index) slipped more than expected in December, dropping to = 51.3=20 from 54.3 in Nov. Expected was 53.0, still expanding but at a slower = rate. It=20 was under 50 in both Sept and Oct, after expanding for the 7 months = prior, and=20 ending an 18 month streak of contraction. The employment component, = however,=20 increased sharply to 50.3 from 43.3. The prices paid component also = jumped, to=20 62.1 from 57.2, and could be a warning flag of coming pricing pressures = (which=20 could eat further into corporate profits) or an inflationary threat (if=20 corporations this time can succeed in raising prices to = consumers).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In a surprising reversal, the national ISM Index = went the=20 other way, rising to 54.7 from 49.2 and soundly beating expectations for = the=20 first rise in four months. The new orders component was the primary = cause, up to=20 63.3 percent from 49.9% in November. The employment component also = improved to=20 47.4 from 43.8 (rate of layoffs are slowing down).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While it made good press, "Housing Sales Fall = 3.5%", the=20 November sales results for existing homes was still the sixth busiest = month on=20 record. The "seasonally adjusted" annual rate ended up at 5.56 million = units=20 compared to expectations of 5.63 million, and down from October's 5.76=20 million.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Spending on new construction beat expectations, = rising=20 0.3% (expected was unchanged) to over $843 billion annually. Residential = construction set a new record, breaking $421 billion. And October's = prior report=20 was revised upward from a gain of 0.3% to a new 1.0% = increase.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In what was a most fitting end to 2002, the = Consumer=20 Confidence Index fell to 80.3 for December, down from November's 84.9, = marking=20 the sixth fall in the past 7 months. Retailers were already well aware = of this,=20 as Christmas sales were well below expectations and forecasts, even with = the=20 surge late in the month. Dramatically, the Present Situations Index went = from=20 78.3 down to 69.9, while the Future Expectations Index slipped another = two=20 points to 87.2. The unemployment picture was cited as the biggest=20 factor.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Weekly new claims for unemployment rose above=20 expectations, adding 13,000 to 403K vs an expected increase to 391K. = Prior week=20 was also revised up from 378K to 390K. The 4 week moving average also = soared to=20 418,750 from 407,500, however continuing claims dropped for the second = week by=20 50,000 (either because they found a job, or worse, are no longer = eligible or=20 gave up looking).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Next Friday's Employment report is expected to = show=20 overall unemployment remaining at 6% with only 20,000 new jobs=20 created.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial> <HR> <STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The DOW ended its worst year since 1977, down = nearly 17%.=20 The other indexes fared about the same. It was the third year in a row = of=20 declines, 1st for that in over 60 years. Nasdaq had its worst December = ever,=20 down 9.7%. Crude oil prices rose over 50% for the year and threaten to = derail=20 whatever weak economic recovery is taking place both in the USA and = throughout=20 the globe. And oil prices are likely to go higher still with the war = with Iraq,=20 and may stay there unless it is a relatively brief conflict with little = damage=20 to Iraq's oil industry. OPEC is finally suggesting it will increase = production=20 to offset the loss of crude from Venezuela. Gold is waving a great big = INFLATION=20 flag, and there have been a few other warnings of this as well. N. Korea = is=20 lighting off its nuclear capability, and the USA is too busy with Iraq = to do=20 much about it right now. Unemployment remains high, may go higher, and = so far no=20 sign of measurable jobs creation. Companies are still laying off people, = or even=20 closing (my employer included in the latter). What a dismal way to start = a new=20 year. Yet the market commentators still promise us better times ahead by = the=20 second half of 2003, just like they did a year ago. If their jobs = depended on=20 the accuracy of their prognostications, guess unemployment would be even = higher.=20 With all that gloom and doom, where's the bright spot? The charts, of = course.=20 Listen to what the stock markets are trying to tell us, and so far they = are not=20 threatening new lows. The economy is certainly weakening again, but not = like the=20 past two years, at least so far. Interest rates are low, which will = allow=20 corporations with heavy debt, but a good business, to retire a lot of = higher=20 yielding bonds and lower their costs. That's tough for the retirees = living on=20 what they make from their fixed income investments, but hopefully some = of them=20 cashed in the capital gains before their bonds were called. And = dividends are=20 coming back into vogue as well. One day this bear will end, and those = that=20 protect and conserve their capital now, and don't try to force the = market, will=20 again have their day.</DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><FONT = face=3DArial><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> = </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 appears to be stable to declining.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACS - triple bottom</DIV> <DIV>APOL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>COCO - LLUR, but volatile</DIV> <DIV>CTSH - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>EUNI - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - deep c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>MVL - c&h</DIV> <DIV>PCLE - B9</DIV> <DIV>PFCB - c&h, long handle</DIV> <DIV>WCS - c&h</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></= FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00cf01c2b402$914f41e0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00D1_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00D0_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="USflag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00cf01c2b402$914f41e0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODdhSwBLAPcAAP//////zP/M///MzP/Mmf+ZzP+Zmf+ZZv9mmf9mZsz//8z/zMzM/8zMzMzM mcyZzMyZmcyZZsxmmcxmZsxmM8xmAMwzmcwzZswzM8wzAMwAZswAM8wAAJnM/5nMzJnMmZmZzJmZ mZmZZplmmZlmZplmM5lmAJkzZpkzM5kzAJkAZpkAM5kAAGaZzGaZmWaZZmZmzGZmmWZmZmZmM2Zm AGYzZmYzM2YzAGYAM2YAADOZzDOZmTNmzDNmmTNmZjNmMzMzmTMzZjMzMzMzADMAZjMAMzMAAABm mQBmZgAzmQAzZgAzMwAAZgAAM7sAAKoAAIgAAHcAAFUAAEQAACIAABEAAAAiAAARAP///wAAVQAA RAAAIgAAEe7u7t3d3bu7u6qqqoiIiHd3d1VVVURERCIiIhEREQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACH5BAAAAAAALAAAAABLAEsA QAj/ALEIHEiwoMGDCBMqXMhwyA0TJlIwnEixokUsD00MYbhkiZKPF0OKzDgkxsceH5Wg7JGkBcog HYN8TOLBC8skSXp0aXBkBZQoOXLgWIHigtELE5KSqEFmTIgGAKJK7ULVSwMZB0n2QKnEBc6tSmQG 8aGyJYicOEG0+BhkLJgGXaTKlepFjBkSEAroLfDgwYC/gL9gRUhyxQoWP3NEiQKFheHHjzdIZhFl CpUpUCCveML5SeQNLKZMYSFZMuTSPqdUyaGQpBgxIcB8mf3lAe0GuL1Q7fJlTBUpjjU/RoECg3EU Un47Lo3apxQjRqQ0NswiYUYjixcHzQ6lOwsWnKGo/xZJfuL18ujTF7yRwoQR9fDjy59fsYrDGzfo 62eoVWVKsjL1AIILRxzx0RJCeOTBTUokAUIDMSSxwgaHRSGFaDk0xhlklF04hRSKZZddDlJkBdEQ PpDlg0llscSiR0qE0MMRaTWQBI009eBDGLHpNldUO4VRBhlgxPWjXF2EQdiJWzGohA8yncQSjUe0 0AJOOQXRxBJBCDGhaaeh9tyXzJVpGhWtnbgCDttNJ9xnFEpBBXaafffdhhP6RAVwZqL2RGVV0LmC dSc+5YVVDdCm6BcN/NVACGQIIQYEBkBgKQR9MdroAA2AIYMZVORgGHObQfFcdNOV9sR7S7q336uE tf/HKqy01mrrrbgSVAV7EJmQX676kQTsfiThlFJYXKWUkwdKLLHFFlsSdKwSi3Vn4azBnnhSW1Km RCNKS2wZQoM5eXEWlknA1WkYYoQBxqFecJqopSTYgMNQZJK6AmsG9TcWWSqBsNURXCX4kU1Y9gDA uUkosZQNNhBn3MQYGGbqnFGQ1qdpUFRhokZckcWVC2E1e5ISNLog8I0trdWsYlB41udmUVBBRRRP 6JvvYR5/PERXKoEF5Vgl99DCty3TmGJHS6BwQlJJHSX1BShQYcOlWGcNgQQkpKnRblaBEcLYb+nW hQAC7FbVF2GMQYYMEGwqL26bxjtACGaM8AVgfPf/DQEZC5HUwAMhhMFj2WqrPZVgQsjwhZFgm20k AF3gHQLf8Ka99hhm2NA1oRoFJRRxpJceJgo2FFFGGF5Q3sWhdNMN2N9lFHkk5V6EMIYQTmkK+hBS MGZnd8R7Bx51yU2BAtRGlY6CZjhUIcS7P+7k6dtPTT6Yz28OR9wJSFGtGp8UPuaZZ9RdfFmIIqp3 3rD0vQ+/fPLPDx+v2NqfHnsp5K///wAMoAAHaJD7EFAku+qVrw54EYdAJAUbYaBFhCXBCZ6oghbU yLQ2qKyGKWELBySJy1LiAjCQTFkt8IISmlCGJpDLWOT6yJcOk4MpGOFD/KKftnrwBTAALCU8PMtH /3zQkY+sbGQtiNADrAKBetlLQ3WCQg1BlJnmbIYyPhvXsXwgG5RgKQQ+aEKCgoCWnNxkRkkIAQTY 1a63JO51nZLBGMRAvSO9Tkn90pYSYiC2aekEBM0SgsEi1KSWfAUlKwAKzIIDmSdIETpSWAHFzGQY /2HkRF9I1kdc0IArDXEMHnHBjAqklhnNyCU+GFsIvtC66nkBDGQogw2eBjUJ2FICWPtcHjX4kVWe sGElNFkYZtICD+CoSkJUQhGGUpypSQ11ZhjDEgUwALv1rQB/a9UQeqjJFHIlCGKYiQeuhJMjjNOD RGQmxdaJARREDzNk0gxqovA7IJrLgzEiIU+w5P8BYzYsBkRcghjgcjupNMBtXyioXLwAOG26oAvk /AgYWKSEL5AzJ11gWAxc0BEiZqZ7qMlBFaIQzzBJ5gkl+p3ZrNJDVTJKcm+MY1PC0ICVwutQavsC GQaaOJyqzQt4/B2YErkYk1JyBacSVfc+sy8qQEFnO4vCb7w2hMfgYDH4elOZ1mSEIthgAreEmljF eoK77K1vgNFLE8tQhhBQ9ZWF4xGmFjUbuQ3gCyQQQufA50ykjHUCNjBCvmaWAyr8BgpUVeQi7cTY 4+VJPFWYwgyXmieR1gCXWrtlvdgqg7L97jWxqSm8YufTqAC1DGN4lwBuetOfhoCtRelr83AAnQyt oe93bMrY8IgnTwpFwQihyhN17ISnChlWVOw8Dg6K4FW8YA23ziMOZBrjWPGYQQytdN3r4LWbR8Wy s3a9axNtUAavSmxilhQISWQzmweAgb11rSlVANAAu9CpfIZBn2Z+G9mM7YwFOQBudEJEPMv8brfF I96daGizKbBPsSICioFhRUGFgCgoFawfBgMHkfRueJce/jBBNCzirMiqxIE7MYqto+IVm7h/LiZI QAAAOw== - ------=_NextPart_000_00D0_01C2B3D8.A882D6D0-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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Previous Article (by Author): Re: What is a breakout? - was RE: [CANSLIM] pivots again "Rolf Hertenstein"
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