Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 11 Jan 2003 12:41:58 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B4_01C2B96E.D4C533F0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C2B96E.D4C533F0" - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C2B96E.D4C533F0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Manufacturing orders fell in November slightly more than expected, = dropping 0.8% against an expectation of a 0.6% decline. Most of the = decline was in durable goods. This was the third slide in four months. In another sign of weakening consumer spending, consumer debt surprised = analysts by dropping $2.2 billion in November. Expected was a rise of = $3.9 billion, after rising $1.6 billion in October. Last time it dropped = was Jan 1998. It was also the biggest drop since Oct 1991. It will be = educational to see the December report as, despite all the whining from = retailers, overall Christmas sales grew over last year (which was a = record) and online sales appear to have grown very substantially. In November, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% as expected after dropping = 0.5% in October, even tho sales grew 1.2%. This may suggest an early = sign that production and stocking is beginning to increase, a precursor = to jobs creation. Year over year inventories are down 1.7%. Inventory to = sales ratio moved down slightly to only 1.21 months worth on the shelf, = a very low number. Durable goods inventory was up 0.3% but still down = 3.4% from a year ago. Biggest factor was autos. New weekly unemployment claims declined to 389,000 from 408,000, = slightly better than the 392K expected. The 4 week moving average = dropped to 406K from 419,750. Continuing claims saw an increase of = 35,000 to 3.445 million unemployed. Congress got its act together and = sent the bill to the President (signed Wednesday) to extend unemployment = benefits, so the ones eligible continue to get their check. Labor = promises there will be no disruption to weekly statistical data. I saw = one estimate that a total of 8.6 million people are unemployed, many not = counted in most reports because they have given up even trying to find = work, and long since exhausted their benefits. The overall unemployment rate remained at 6% in December, but instead of = the expected 20,000 jobs being created, 101,000 jobs were reported lost = with the biggest drop in the retail sector. Seasonal adjustments are = believed to have made the jobs loss figure look worse than reality, as = seasonal hiring for the Christmas season was not as robust as the = adjustments would have anticipated. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Market tone appears to have improved substantially during the past week. = I was most impressed with how the market reacted Friday, after the = monthly unemployment report surprised most with a substantial job loss = instead of a small gain. New highs are well ahead of new lows, up volume = is steadily exceeding down volume. Markets were up for the week, and we = start the earnings reporting season next week. Every index gained, and = the index charts more and more are suggesting we are forming a clear = double bottom, with a handle building just below the pivot. I would have = preferred the handle forming higher, but given the worry and uncertainty = over the upcoming war with Iraq, its duration, loss of life, cost, and = extent of damage particularly to oil production, I will be grateful for = what we get. I made nice money this past week, hope everyone did as = well. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend grew nicely, = reflecting a much improved tone to "M".=20 ACET - small c&h, low priced ACS - volatile c&h, with a double bottom, handle forming on declining = volume APOL - volatile LLUR FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund FCN - LLUR GG - B4 HMY - triple bottom, at the pivot, no growth forecasted ICLR - possible handle forming on the cup IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund LSTR - high handle on a double bottom MRGE - passed the pivot on volume Friday, in my VR Fund NXTL - mini double bottom, at the secondary pivot PFCB - secondary base on the handle, still below the left rim of the cup PORT - LLUR PSTI - low RS, nice growth & consolidation base, in my VR Fund, low = price PTSI - c&h, encouraging when transportation companies make this list PVTB - LLUR, volatile RARE - double bottom, b/o Friday RGLD - LLUR SFNT - strong b/o Friday to a new high from a mini double bottom, in my = VR Fund STHLY - c&h STN - 14 week consolidation flat base STST - B3, in my VR Fund TCHC - c&h, low volume TEVA - 11 week consolidation TSCO - LLUR TVX - triple bottom??, at the pivot forming a handle UOPX - base on base, 1st base is high handle Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C2B96E.D4C533F0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Manufacturing orders fell in November slightly = more than=20 expected, dropping 0.8% against an expectation of a 0.6% decline. Most = of the=20 decline was in durable goods. This was the third slide in four=20 months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another sign of weakening consumer spending, = consumer=20 debt surprised analysts by dropping $2.2 billion in November. Expected = was a=20 rise of $3.9 billion, after rising $1.6 billion in October. Last time it = dropped=20 was Jan 1998. It was also the biggest drop since Oct 1991. It = will be=20 educational to see the December report as, despite all the whining from=20 retailers, overall Christmas sales grew over last year (which was a = record) and=20 online sales appear to have grown very substantially.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In November, wholesale inventories rose 0.2% as = expected=20 after dropping 0.5% in October, even tho sales grew 1.2%. This may = suggest=20 an early sign that production and stocking is beginning to increase, a = precursor=20 to jobs creation. Year over year inventories are down 1.7%. = Inventory to=20 sales ratio moved down slightly to only 1.21 months worth on the shelf, = a very=20 low number. Durable goods inventory was up 0.3% but still down 3.4% from = a year=20 ago. Biggest factor was autos.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New weekly unemployment claims declined to = 389,000 from=20 408,000, slightly better than the 392K expected. The 4 week moving = average=20 dropped to 406K from 419,750. Continuing claims saw an increase of = 35,000 to=20 3.445 million unemployed. Congress got its act together and sent the = bill to the=20 President (signed Wednesday) to extend unemployment benefits, so the = ones=20 eligible continue to get their check. Labor promises there will be no = disruption=20 to weekly statistical data. I saw one estimate that a total of 8.6 = million=20 people are unemployed, many not counted in most reports because they = have given=20 up even trying to find work, and long since exhausted their=20 benefits.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The overall unemployment rate remained at 6% in = December,=20 but instead of the expected 20,000 jobs being created, 101,000 jobs were = reported lost with the biggest drop in the retail sector. Seasonal=20 adjustments are believed to have made the jobs loss figure look worse = than=20 reality, as seasonal hiring for the Christmas season was not as robust = as the=20 adjustments would have anticipated.</DIV> <DIV> <HR> </DIV> <DIV><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></DIV> <DIV>Market tone appears to have improved substantially during the past = week. I=20 was most impressed with how the market reacted Friday, after the monthly = unemployment report surprised most with a substantial job loss instead = of a=20 small gain. New highs are well ahead of new lows, up volume is steadily=20 exceeding down volume. Markets were up for the week, and we start the = earnings=20 reporting season next week. Every index gained, and the index charts = more and=20 more are suggesting we are forming a clear double bottom, with a handle = building=20 just below the pivot. I would have preferred the handle forming higher, = but=20 given the worry and uncertainty over the upcoming war with Iraq, its = duration,=20 loss of life, cost, and extent of damage particularly to oil production, = I will=20 be grateful for what we get. I made nice money this past week, hope = everyone did=20 as well.</DIV></FONT> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> = </FONT> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend grew=20 nicely, reflecting a much improved tone to "M". </FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ACET - small c&h, low priced</DIV> <DIV>ACS - volatile c&h, with a double bottom, handle forming on = declining=20 volume</DIV> <DIV>APOL - volatile LLUR</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>FCN - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>GG - B4</DIV> <DIV>HMY - triple bottom, at the pivot, no growth forecasted</DIV> <DIV>ICLR - possible handle forming on the cup</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>LSTR - high handle on a double bottom</DIV> <DIV>MRGE - passed the pivot on volume Friday, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>NXTL - mini double bottom, at the secondary pivot</DIV> <DIV>PFCB - secondary base on the handle, still below the left rim of = the=20 cup</DIV> <DIV>PORT - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>PSTI - low RS, nice growth & consolidation base, in my VR Fund, = low=20 price</DIV> <DIV>PTSI - c&h, encouraging when transportation companies make this = list</DIV> <DIV>PVTB - LLUR, volatile</DIV> <DIV>RARE - double bottom, b/o Friday</DIV> <DIV>RGLD - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SFNT - strong b/o Friday to a new high from a mini double bottom, = in my VR=20 Fund</DIV> <DIV>STHLY - c&h</DIV> <DIV>STN - 14 week consolidation flat base</DIV> <DIV>STST - B3, in my VR Fund</DIV> <DIV>TCHC - c&h, low volume</DIV> <DIV>TEVA - 11 week consolidation</DIV> <DIV>TSCO - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>TVX - triple bottom??, at the pivot forming a handle</DIV> <DIV>UOPX - base on base, 1st base is high handle</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>Happy=20 Hunting,</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FON= T></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT face=3DArial><IMG alt=3D"" = hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:00b301c2b998$bd98caf0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00B5_01C2B96E.D4C533F0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00B4_01C2B96E.D4C533F0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00b301c2b998$bd98caf0$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ 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