Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 19 Jan 2003 08:32:10 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_005C_01C2BF95.4255D970 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_005D_01C2BF95.4255D970" - ------=_NextPart_001_005D_01C2BF95.4255D970 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS OPEC agreed to increase production 1.5 million gallons / day, about half = of production lost from Venezuela. However, it takes 4-6 weeks to = deliver from the Mid East to the USA compared to five days from = Venezuela, so the 26 year low in US inventories will not improve = quickly. And an attack against Iraq will stop another 2-3 million = gallons a day, at least short term. Business inventories grew 0.2% in November to the highest in a year, on = the accumulation of cars and car parts, and gifts for the Christmas = season. Expectations were for no change. Sales rose 0.3%. PPI was unchanged in December after the 0.4% drop in November. A rise of = 0.3% had been expected. The core PPI fell 0.3% against an expected rise = of 0.1%. New jobless claims dropped to 360,000 from a revised 392K in the prior = week against expectations of a small rise to 395K. The more reliable 4 = week moving average dropped to 387,500 from 407K. Continuing claims also = fell, to 3.29 million from 3.43 million. CPI rose 0.1% in December, and the core CPI for all of 2002 was up only = 1.9%, last time it was that low was 1999, before that 1965. Amidst other signs that Mr. Greenspan's "soft patch" in the economy = could be turning into a serious pot hole that could rip the tires off = our economic engine, the Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index = went against expectations and dropped to 83.7 from 86.7. Expectations = were for a small rise to 87.0.=20 In one more sign of a further weakening economy, the Industrial = Production fell 0.2% in December, wiping out November's rise. Capacity = utilization also fell, to 75.4, down from 75.6%. Expectations were for = IP to rise 0.2%, and CU to rise 0.1%. Once again, the blame was put on = the auto industry. For all of 2002, industrial production fell 0.6%, = better than 2001's drop of 3.5% but still a decline, and the first time = since 1974-75 for two back to back yearly declines. Multi-national US corporations have been complaining for years that the = strong US dollar is hurting their competitive edge overseas. But despite = the sharply weakened dollar in recent months, the US Trade Deficit = surged in November to another new record, up 13.9% to $40.1 billion and = blowing away expectations for a deficit of $36.8 billion. Despite the = weak dollar, exports showed only slight gains while imports surged. = Through 11 months, the total deficit for the year already surpassed the = record deficit of 2000 by nearly $22 billion, so December's deficit will = only increase the record further. Estimates for 4th qtr GDP were already being shaved well under Q3's nice = 4% figure, most were under 2% before the Trade Deficit report. Now half = a percent or more are getting sliced off forecasts, with J.P. Morgan = already forecasting a negative Q4 GDP, first step towards another = recession. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Most of the index charts have resolved their various interpretations = into a consensus in my mind, double bottom with a handle forming right = at (or below) the pivot (mid point of the W). The handle forming right = there tells me that uncertainty is the key. Too much worry remains in = the market for a decisive direction up or down. War on Iraq, loss of = Iraq's oil production along with the strike in Venezuela leading to much = higher energy prices, endemic and continuing unemployment with the = threat of further layoffs, lack of aggressive action by Japan to fix its = economy (2nd largest global economy), worries over Germany's weakening = economy (3rd largest), faltering consumer spending in the USA (world's = largest economy), and more terrorist strikes all contribute to a once = again faltering economy. Certainly this past week's economic reports = from the USA were not encouraging that our economy is recovering. Early = earnings reports from the elephants, MSFT and IBM included, were good, = but their forward looking comments were bleak. The handle on the charts = can resolve itself in three ways, up, down, or unchanged. And right now = the last two appear more likely candidates. By the end of the week, the = markets were no longer shrugging off bad news, rather they were reacting = violently to it. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend once again began to = shrink, reflecting the declining markets over the past week. APOL - c&h, but handle deteriorating on light volume BSTE - young LLUR? BSX - young LLUR? CBI - c&h CRAY - B5, low priced FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund, low priced IDXC - well formed c&h MBT - c&h MRGE - surviving a b/o from a low handle, low priced, in my VR Fund N - triple bottom resolved now into a cup, handle forming PFCB - handle failing? PORT - LLUR SPP - nice smooth cup, handle forming, foreign company Happy hunting, and good luck, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_005D_01C2BF95.4255D970 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1126" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OPEC agreed to increase production 1.5 million = gallons /=20 day, about half of production lost from Venezuela. However, it takes 4-6 = weeks=20 to deliver from the Mid East to the USA compared to five days from = Venezuela, so=20 the 26 year low in US inventories will not improve quickly. And an = attack=20 against Iraq will stop another 2-3 million gallons a day, at least short = term.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Business inventories grew 0.2% in November to = the highest=20 in a year, on the accumulation of cars and car parts, and gifts for the=20 Christmas season. Expectations were for no change. Sales rose = 0.3%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PPI was unchanged in December after the 0.4% = drop in=20 November. A rise of 0.3% had been expected. The core PPI fell 0.3% = against an=20 expected rise of 0.1%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New jobless claims dropped to 360,000 from a = revised 392K=20 in the prior week against expectations of a small rise to 395K. The more = reliable 4 week moving average dropped to 387,500 from 407K. Continuing = claims=20 also fell, to 3.29 million from 3.43 million.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>CPI rose 0.1% in December, and the core CPI for = all of=20 2002 was up only 1.9%, last time it was that low was 1999, before that=20 1965.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Amidst other signs that Mr. Greenspan's "soft = patch" in=20 the economy could be turning into a serious pot hole that could rip the = tires=20 off our economic engine, the Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment = index went=20 against expectations and dropped to 83.7 from 86.7. Expectations were = for a=20 small rise to 87.0. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In one more sign of a further weakening economy, = the=20 Industrial Production fell 0.2% in December, wiping out November's rise. = Capacity utilization also fell, to 75.4, down from 75.6%. Expectations = were for=20 IP to rise 0.2%, and CU to rise 0.1%. Once again, the blame was put on = the auto=20 industry. For all of 2002, industrial production fell 0.6%, better than = 2001's=20 drop of 3.5% but still a decline, and the first time since 1974-75 for = two back=20 to back yearly declines.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Multi-national US corporations have been = complaining for=20 years that the strong US dollar is hurting their competitive edge = overseas. But=20 despite the sharply weakened dollar in recent months, the US Trade = Deficit=20 surged in November to another new record, up 13.9% to $40.1 billion and = blowing=20 away expectations for a deficit of $36.8 billion. Despite the weak = dollar,=20 exports showed only slight gains while imports surged. Through 11 = months, the=20 total deficit for the year already surpassed the record deficit of 2000 = by=20 nearly $22 billion, so December's deficit will only increase the record=20 further.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Estimates for 4th qtr GDP were already being = shaved well=20 under Q3's nice 4% figure, most were under 2% before the Trade = Deficit=20 report. Now half a percent or more are getting sliced off forecasts, = with J.P.=20 Morgan already forecasting a negative Q4 GDP, first step towards another = recession. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Most of the index charts have resolved their = various=20 interpretations into a consensus in my mind, double bottom with a handle = forming=20 right at (or below) the pivot (mid point of the W). The handle = forming=20 right there tells me that uncertainty is the key. Too much worry remains = in the=20 market for a decisive direction up or down. War on Iraq, loss of Iraq's = oil=20 production along with the strike in Venezuela leading to much higher = energy=20 prices, endemic and continuing unemployment with the threat of further = layoffs,=20 lack of aggressive action by Japan to fix its economy (2nd largest = global=20 economy), worries over Germany's weakening economy (3rd largest), = faltering=20 consumer spending in the USA (world's largest economy), and more = terrorist=20 strikes all contribute to a once again faltering economy. Certainly this = past=20 week's economic reports from the USA were not encouraging that our = economy is=20 recovering. Early earnings reports from the elephants, MSFT and IBM = included,=20 were good, but their forward looking comments were bleak. The handle on = the=20 charts can resolve itself in three ways, up, down, or unchanged. And = right now=20 the last two appear more likely candidates. By the end of the week, the = markets=20 were no longer shrugging off bad news, rather they were reacting = violently to=20 it.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> = </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend once=20 again began to shrink, reflecting the declining markets over the past=20 week.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>APOL - c&h, but handle deteriorating on light volume</DIV> <DIV>BSTE - young LLUR?</DIV> <DIV>BSX - young LLUR?</DIV> <DIV>CBI - c&h</DIV> <DIV>CRAY - B5, low priced</DIV> <DIV>FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund, low priced</DIV> <DIV>IDXC - well formed c&h</DIV> <DIV>MBT - c&h</DIV> <DIV>MRGE - surviving a b/o from a low handle, low priced, in my VR = Fund</DIV> <DIV>N - triple bottom resolved now into a cup, handle forming</DIV> <DIV>PFCB - handle failing?</DIV> <DIV>PORT - LLUR</DIV> <DIV>SPP - nice smooth cup, handle forming, foreign company</DIV> <DIV> </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></= FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy hunting, and good luck,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:005b01c2bfbf$2b2be170$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_005D_01C2BF95.4255D970-- - ------=_NextPart_000_005C_01C2BF95.4255D970 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <005b01c2bfbf$2b2be170$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz 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