Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "dave butters" <dbdigger@msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Mon, 20 Jan 2003 12:29:56 -0500
Next Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] head & shoulders patterns on the indexes (was Fw: Amateur Investors Weekend Market Analysis) "Rolf Hertenstein"
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I have a piviot of $18.66 on IDXC






>From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
>Reply-To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>To: "CANSLIM" <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
>Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
>Date: Sun, 19 Jan 2003 08:32:10 -0500
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>
>ECONOMICS
>OPEC agreed to increase production 1.5 million gallons / day, about half of 
>production lost from Venezuela. However, it takes 4-6 weeks to deliver from 
>the Mid East to the USA compared to five days from Venezuela, so the 26 
>year low in US inventories will not improve quickly. And an attack against 
>Iraq will stop another 2-3 million gallons a day, at least short term.
>
>Business inventories grew 0.2% in November to the highest in a year, on the 
>accumulation of cars and car parts, and gifts for the Christmas season. 
>Expectations were for no change. Sales rose 0.3%.
>
>PPI was unchanged in December after the 0.4% drop in November. A rise of 
>0.3% had been expected. The core PPI fell 0.3% against an expected rise of 
>0.1%.
>
>New jobless claims dropped to 360,000 from a revised 392K in the prior week 
>against expectations of a small rise to 395K. The more reliable 4 week 
>moving average dropped to 387,500 from 407K. Continuing claims also fell, 
>to 3.29 million from 3.43 million.
>
>CPI rose 0.1% in December, and the core CPI for all of 2002 was up only 
>1.9%, last time it was that low was 1999, before that 1965.
>
>Amidst other signs that Mr. Greenspan's "soft patch" in the economy could 
>be turning into a serious pot hole that could rip the tires off our 
>economic engine, the Univ. of Michigan's consumer sentiment index went 
>against expectations and dropped to 83.7 from 86.7. Expectations were for a 
>small rise to 87.0.
>
>In one more sign of a further weakening economy, the Industrial Production 
>fell 0.2% in December, wiping out November's rise. Capacity utilization 
>also fell, to 75.4, down from 75.6%. Expectations were for IP to rise 0.2%, 
>and CU to rise 0.1%. Once again, the blame was put on the auto industry. 
>For all of 2002, industrial production fell 0.6%, better than 2001's drop 
>of 3.5% but still a decline, and the first time since 1974-75 for two back 
>to back yearly declines.
>
>Multi-national US corporations have been complaining for years that the 
>strong US dollar is hurting their competitive edge overseas. But despite 
>the sharply weakened dollar in recent months, the US Trade Deficit surged 
>in November to another new record, up 13.9% to $40.1 billion and blowing 
>away expectations for a deficit of $36.8 billion. Despite the weak dollar, 
>exports showed only slight gains while imports surged. Through 11 months, 
>the total deficit for the year already surpassed the record deficit of 2000 
>by nearly $22 billion, so December's deficit will only increase the record 
>further.
>
>Estimates for 4th qtr GDP were already being shaved well under Q3's nice 4% 
>figure, most were under 2% before the Trade Deficit report. Now half a 
>percent or more are getting sliced off forecasts, with J.P. Morgan already 
>forecasting a negative Q4 GDP, first step towards another recession.
>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>"M"
>Most of the index charts have resolved their various interpretations into a 
>consensus in my mind, double bottom with a handle forming right at (or 
>below) the pivot (mid point of the W). The handle forming right there tells 
>me that uncertainty is the key. Too much worry remains in the market for a 
>decisive direction up or down. War on Iraq, loss of Iraq's oil production 
>along with the strike in Venezuela leading to much higher energy prices, 
>endemic and continuing unemployment with the threat of further layoffs, 
>lack of aggressive action by Japan to fix its economy (2nd largest global 
>economy), worries over Germany's weakening economy (3rd largest), faltering 
>consumer spending in the USA (world's largest economy), and more terrorist 
>strikes all contribute to a once again faltering economy. Certainly this 
>past week's economic reports from the USA were not encouraging that our 
>economy is recovering. Early earnings reports from the elephants, MSFT and 
>IBM included, were good, but their forward looking comments were bleak. The 
>handle on the charts can resolve itself in three ways, up, down, or 
>unchanged. And right now the last two appear more likely candidates. By the 
>end of the week, the markets were no longer shrugging off bad news, rather 
>they were reacting violently to it.
>
>--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES
>This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It is 
>a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M" 
>and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with 
>constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from 
>(and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in Operations 
>by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my 
>own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions of 
>my employer.
>
>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and 
>try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout 
>scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, 
>focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all 
>industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my personal 
>investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this 
>year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due 
>diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I 
>see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx 
>where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper 
>Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. Rarely are any of 
>these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due size, price or 
>industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a current personal 
>financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality (VR).
>
>The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend once again began to 
>shrink, reflecting the declining markets over the past week.
>
>APOL - c&h, but handle deteriorating on light volume
>BSTE - young LLUR?
>BSX - young LLUR?
>CBI - c&h
>CRAY - B5, low priced
>FCFS - c&h, in my VR Fund, low priced
>IDXC - well formed c&h
>MBT - c&h
>MRGE - surviving a b/o from a low handle, low priced, in my VR Fund
>N - triple bottom resolved now into a cup, handle forming
>PFCB - handle failing?
>PORT - LLUR
>SPP - nice smooth cup, handle forming, foreign company
>
>Happy hunting, and good luck,
>
>
>Tom Worley
>stkguru@bellsouth.net
>AIM: TexWorley


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