Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 8 Feb 2003 14:15:23 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00F5_01C2CF7C.852AE370 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00F6_01C2CF7C.852AE370" - ------=_NextPart_001_00F6_01C2CF7C.852AE370 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS ISM reports that manufacturing activity dropped o 53.9 from 55.2, still = expansion, but at a slower pace, and in line with expectations of 54. = The new orders and the production indexes also slipped, as did the = employment index. The latter moved from 48.2 to 47.6, putting further = evidence that the Employment Report on Friday is not to be trusted. Construction spending in December soared 1.2%, primarily because of = residential building which hit a second consecutive monthly record. For = the full year, construction spending was up only 0.4%, worst in 11 = years. Factory orders grew 0.4% in December, mostly because of defense related = orders. Without that, it was only up 0.2%. Durable goods orders were = down 0.2%. For the year, total orders were down 0.8%, second yearly = decline. During January, additional layoffs of over 132 thousand were announced, = up from the 93 thousand announced in December. Sure, the employment = picture is getting clearer, just more negative. You are more likely to = get laid off, just a question of when. The services sector rose mildly in January to 54.5 from 54.2, just = missing the expectations of 54.6. Weekly jobless claims were essentially unchanged. But I am coming to = believe that the best part of this report is the continuing claims, = which rose to 3.53 million from 3.29 million last week. This also flies = in the face of the Unemployment Report released Friday. Productivity fell 0.2% in the fourth quarter against expectations of a = gain of 0.7%. Still, 2002 was up 4.7%, best since 1950, and in a = non-inflationary period, for productivity. Unemployment drops to 5.7%???? Pleeezzzzzeeee. Chalk it up to seasonal = adjustments, and tweaking of the system by the government. Reports that = 143K jobs were added in the non-farm sector, yet in December the = adjusted figure was a loss of 156K jobs and it was 6% unemployment then. = Doesn't add up, anymore that the steady number of continuing claims for = unemployment suggests new hiring. Nor does the number of announced = layoffs. More layoffs were announced in the past six months (746,781) = than in most full years. More than 2.3 million jobs were lost in the = past two years, that will not be corrected easily or in any short term = time line. Consumer spending continues to weaken, and corporate spending = still has not shown signs of increasing, so only the strong housing = market is left to continue fueling the economy. How many people are left = that haven't already bought a house? And Help Wanted ads continue on a = substantial decline. In a discouraging sign of further weakness in consumer spending, the = inventories at wholesalers shot up 0.8% in December while sales fell = 0.8%. And this despite most retailers keeping their inventory tight in = anticipation of a weak Christmas shopping season. And follows a 0.3% = rise in inventories in November. Still, total inventories remain low, = and could force producers to ramp up manufacturing if the demand side = picks up. Gee, what might trigger stronger consumer spending? Tax cuts = under debate?? Nah. Another interest rate cut (not that there is that = much left to cut)? Nah, hasn't worked yet. Job security? not happening. = War with Iraq? Depends on the answers to the questions: when, how long, = how much damage, how many US lives lost, will we own the Iraqi oil = fields when its over. Biggest factor in the increased inventories was a = 16.5% rise in petroleum inventory, stockpiled in anticipation of = interruptions when the Iraqi war starts and sends prices even higher. In one further sign of slowing consumer spending, the faithful engine = that has been steadily driving this economy for over two years, consumer = credit outstanding plunged in December (no wonder Christmas sales were = so miserable) by $4.0 billion, equal to a 2.75% annualized rate and = sending 2002 to the slowest growth in consumer debt in 10 years (up = 3.3%). However, November was revised from a decline of 2.2 billion to a = measly 100 million, so the numbers may not stand up after revision. = Economists had expected consumer debt to rise by $3.3 billion in = December. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continues to = shrink. ANSI - 1st b/o from the handle failed, now the handle looks weak CBI - c&h, handle trending down on reduced volume CCDC - nice consolidation DAKT - b/o Thursday from a B4 GG - consolidation base MEOH - B4+, but earnings decline forecast for 2004, low priced MHM - c&h MVL - high handle? NBTY - triple bottom / c&h NSCN - early LLUR?, own, in my VR Fund NTE - base forming? OHB - housing, base building, low priced PORT - LLUR PSTI - c&h QSII - high handle on the cup RGLD - LLUR Happy Hunting, and good luck to all, stay on alert, both in life and in = the markets Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00F6_01C2CF7C.852AE370 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ISM reports that manufacturing activity dropped = o 53.9=20 from 55.2, still expansion, but at a slower pace, and in line with = expectations=20 of 54. The new orders and the production indexes also slipped, as did = the=20 employment index. The latter moved from 48.2 to 47.6, putting further = evidence=20 that the Employment Report on Friday is not to be trusted.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Construction spending in December soared 1.2%, = primarily=20 because of residential building which hit a second consecutive monthly = record.=20 For the full year, construction spending was up only 0.4%, worst in 11=20 years.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Factory orders grew 0.4% in December, mostly = because of=20 defense related orders. Without that, it was only up 0.2%. Durable goods = orders=20 were down 0.2%. For the year, total orders were down 0.8%, second yearly = decline.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>During January, additional layoffs of over 132 = thousand=20 were announced, up from the 93 thousand announced in December. Sure, the = employment picture is getting clearer, just more negative. You are more = likely=20 to get laid off, just a question of when.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The services sector rose mildly in January to = 54.5 from=20 54.2, just missing the expectations of 54.6.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Weekly jobless claims were essentially = unchanged. But I am=20 coming to believe that the best part of this report is the continuing = claims,=20 which rose to 3.53 million from 3.29 million last week. This also flies = in the=20 face of the Unemployment Report released Friday.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity fell 0.2% in the fourth quarter = against=20 expectations of a gain of 0.7%. Still, 2002 was up 4.7%, best since = 1950, and in=20 a non-inflationary period, for productivity.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Unemployment drops to 5.7%???? Pleeezzzzzeeee. = Chalk it up=20 to seasonal adjustments, and tweaking of the system by the government. = Reports=20 that 143K jobs were added in the non-farm sector, yet in December the = adjusted=20 figure was a loss of 156K jobs and it was 6% unemployment then. Doesn't = add up,=20 anymore that the steady number of continuing claims for unemployment = suggests=20 new hiring. Nor does the number of announced layoffs. More layoffs were=20 announced in the past six months (746,781) than in most full years. More = than=20 2.3 million jobs were lost in the past two years, that will not be = corrected=20 easily or in any short term time line. Consumer spending continues to = weaken,=20 and corporate spending still has not shown signs of increasing, so only = the=20 strong housing market is left to continue fueling the economy. How many = people=20 are left that haven't already bought a house? And Help Wanted ads = continue on a=20 substantial decline.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In a discouraging sign of further weakness in = consumer=20 spending, the inventories at wholesalers shot up 0.8% in December while = sales=20 fell 0.8%. And this despite most retailers keeping their inventory tight = in=20 anticipation of a weak Christmas shopping season. And follows a 0.3% = rise in=20 inventories in November. Still, total inventories remain low, and could = force=20 producers to ramp up manufacturing if the demand side picks up. Gee, = what might=20 trigger stronger consumer spending? Tax cuts under debate?? Nah. Another = interest rate cut (not that there is that much left to cut)? Nah, hasn't = worked=20 yet. Job security? not happening. War with Iraq? Depends on the answers = to the=20 questions: when, how long, how much damage, how many US lives lost, will = we own=20 the Iraqi oil fields when its over. Biggest factor in the increased = inventories=20 was a 16.5% rise in petroleum inventory, stockpiled in anticipation of=20 interruptions when the Iraqi war starts and sends prices even=20 higher.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In one further sign of slowing consumer = spending, the=20 faithful engine that has been steadily driving this economy for over two = years,=20 consumer credit outstanding plunged in December (no wonder Christmas = sales were=20 so miserable) by $4.0 billion, equal to a 2.75% annualized rate and = sending 2002=20 to the slowest growth in consumer debt in 10 years (up 3.3%). However, = November=20 was revised from a decline of 2.2 billion to a measly 100 million, so = the=20 numbers may not stand up after revision. Economists had expected = consumer debt=20 to rise by $3.3 billion in December. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20 WANNABES</STRONG><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 continues to shrink.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV>ANSI - 1st b/o from the handle failed, now the handle looks = weak</DIV> <DIV>CBI - c&h, handle trending down on reduced volume</DIV> <DIV>CCDC - nice consolidation</DIV> <DIV>DAKT - b/o Thursday from a B4</DIV> <DIV>GG - consolidation base</DIV> <DIV>MEOH - B4+, but earnings decline forecast for 2004, low = priced</DIV> <DIV>MHM -=20 c&h</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>= </DIV></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MVL - high handle?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NBTY - triple bottom / c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NSCN - early LLUR?, own, in my VR = Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NTE - base forming?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OHB - housing, base building, low = priced</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PORT - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PSTI - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>QSII - high handle on the cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RGLD - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, and good luck to all, stay on = alert, both=20 in life and in the markets</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:00f401c2cfa6$6dfe7a70$6501a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00F6_01C2CF7C.852AE370-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00F5_01C2CF7C.852AE370 Content-Type: image/gif; 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