Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Jonathan Lobatto" <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Foreign Markets CANSLIM?
Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 14:56:51 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0064_01C2DA82.A1DCC900 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom, I agree with much of what you say. However, I might point out that = analysis of politics, economics and exchange rates is in my opinion of = minor value in determining "M", as it is mostly discounted (i.e. in the = market already). Those of us old enough to recall the mid 70s, or the = early 80s will remember that all the macro factors looked awful. If one = had made decisions based on the considerations you mention above, it = would have been easy to stay out of the market years past the bottoms. = If anyone states that they analyzed the macro sitaution back then and = decided to invest based on the economic and political outlook and = exchange rates, I'd be highly skeptical. I know things looked grim to = me. Yes, the U.S. is the biggest market, but the growth rates in the coming = decades will be highest in China, Asia (ex-Japan) and India and I'm just = looking ahead and wondering how a US based investor can benefit from = this. Jon ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Tom Worley=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, February 22, 2003 2:19 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Foreign Markets CANSLIM? Jonathan, I monitor daily all global exchanges, but have done little investing = outside the USA. My reasons are pretty basic, I have too little time to = keep up with politics, economics, exchange rates, etc. right here. = Trying to obtain and stay current on these matters (which I deem = important to me in assessing "M") in any foreign country, much less a = foreign region of many countries, many of which may be unstable and = subject to rapid political change, would be too much except as a full = time occupation. Additionally, DGO remains my data source of choice for the moment, and = they provide very little coverage of foreign stocks. The different = accounting systems as well deter me from foreign companies, as well as = the lack of regulation and financial reporting required. As you note, unless the company was listed on a US exchange, there are = the added difficulties of opening an account in another country (and = reporting it on your tax return as well), not to mention the additional = risk of foreign exchange rate changes. The US economy remains the = biggest (and I believe the strongest / healthiest / most likely to = recover first), and I would expect other economies to trail when true = recovery finally begins. I would not want to have my money trapped in = yen, or baht, or francs, or pounds, or whatever, while the US markets = finally take off. The decades of research that went into the development and refinement = of CANSLIM was mostly done on US stocks. While in theory I see no reason = why it could not be applied elsewhere, a lot of the tools are lacking = even for back testing, and the risks and difficulties are greater. ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Jonathan Lobatto=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, February 22, 2003 2:08 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Foreign Markets CANSLIM? As has been discussed here for a very long time, "M" stinks. However, = there have been foreign markets (China and a few others) where "M" has = actually been pretty decent the past year or so. I'm wondering if anyone = has tried applying CANSLIM in a foreign market? After all, there's no = philosophical reason (as opposed to practical ones) that it wouldn't be = applicable to a non-US market. Now some will argue that foreign = accounting and reporting doesn't have the same kind of transparency that = our does, but after Enron (et al ad nauseum), what appears transparent = was in reality totally obscured anyway. If one wanted to try, the first thing that would be handy would be a = database that ranks the RS and EPS of foreign stocks. I know that it's = possible to get this info for ADRS, but I'm sure there are hundreds of = non-ADrs that would be suitable candidates also. Of course actually = purchasing the stocks presents other difficulties, but it may be worth = at least discussing. So, any ideas? Jon - ------=_NextPart_000_0064_01C2DA82.A1DCC900 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1106" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>Tom,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>I agree with much of what you = say.=20 However, I might point out that analysis of politics, economics and = exchange=20 rates is in my opinion of minor value in determining "M", as it is = mostly=20 discounted (i.e. in the market already). Those of us old enough to = recall=20 the mid 70s, or the early 80s will remember that all the macro factors = looked=20 <U><STRONG>awful</STRONG></U>. If one had made decisions based on the=20 considerations you mention above, it would have been easy to stay out of = the=20 market years past the bottoms. If anyone states that they analyzed the = macro=20 sitaution back then and decided to invest based on the economic and = political=20 outlook and exchange rates, I'd be highly skeptical. I know things = looked grim=20 to me.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>Yes, the U.S. is the biggest = market, but=20 the growth rates in the coming decades will be highest in China, Asia = (ex-Japan)=20 and India and I'm just looking ahead and wondering how a US based = investor can=20 benefit from this.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>Jon</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net = href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20 Worley</A> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 22, = 2003 2:19=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] Foreign = Markets=20 CANSLIM?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Jonathan,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I monitor daily all global exchanges, but have = done=20 little investing outside the USA. My reasons are pretty basic, I have = too=20 little time to keep up with politics, economics, exchange rates, etc. = right=20 here. Trying to obtain and stay current on these matters (which I deem = important to me in assessing "M") in any foreign country, much less a = foreign=20 region of many countries, many of which may be unstable and subject to = rapid=20 political change, would be too much except as a full time=20 occupation.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Additionally, DGO remains my data source of = choice for=20 the moment, and they provide very little coverage of foreign stocks. = The=20 different accounting systems as well deter me from foreign companies, = as well=20 as the lack of regulation and financial reporting = required.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As you note, unless the company was listed on = a US=20 exchange, there are the added difficulties of opening an account in = another=20 country (and reporting it on your tax return as well), not to mention = the=20 additional risk of foreign exchange rate changes. The US economy = remains the=20 biggest (and I believe the strongest / healthiest / most likely to = recover=20 first), and I would expect other economies to trail when true recovery = finally=20 begins. I would not want to have my money trapped in yen, or baht, or = francs,=20 or pounds, or whatever, while the US markets finally take = off.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The decades of research that went into the = development=20 and refinement of CANSLIM was mostly done on US stocks. While in = theory I see=20 no reason why it could not be applied elsewhere, a lot of the tools = are=20 lacking even for back testing, and the risks and difficulties are=20 greater.</FONT></DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20 <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20 title=3Djlobatto@nyc.rr.com = href=3D"mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com">Jonathan=20 Lobatto</A> </DIV> <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, February 22, 2003 2:08 PM</DIV> <DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Foreign Markets CANSLIM?</DIV></DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>As has been discussed here = for a very=20 long time, "M" stinks. However, there have been foreign markets = (China=20 and a few others) where "M" has actually been pretty decent the past = year or=20 so. I'm wondering if anyone has tried applying CANSLIM in a foreign = market?=20 After all, there's no philosophical reason (as opposed to practical = ones) that=20 it wouldn't be applicable to a non-US market. Now some will argue that = foreign=20 accounting and reporting doesn't have the same kind of transparency = that our=20 does, but after Enron (et al ad nauseum), what appears transparent was = in=20 reality totally obscured anyway.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>If one wanted to try, the = first thing=20 that would be handy would be a database that ranks the RS and EPS of = foreign=20 stocks. I know that it's possible to get this info for ADRS, but I'm = sure=20 there are hundreds of non-ADrs that would be suitable candidates also. = Of=20 course actually purchasing the stocks presents other difficulties, but = it may=20 be worth at least discussing. So, any ideas?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana=20 color=3D#0000ff>Jon</FONT></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_0064_01C2DA82.A1DCC900-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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