[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 22 Feb 2003 20:14:31 -0500
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ECONOMICS
New York's Fed gave the first warning of a gloomy economic week with the =
report that manufacturing in February plunged from 20.7 to 1.1, lowest =
in 4 months. In retrospect, they also gave early warning of the jump in =
PPI to be reported later in the week, noting prices paid index jumped to =
19.2 from 7.3, highest since July '01. And prices received remained =
benign, just as did the CPI, slipping to -14.4 from -15.6. New orders =
index dropped from 18.7 to 12.3.

PPI shocked the markets by rising 1.6% in January, even the core, after =
stripping out energy and food, shot up 0.9%. Needless to say, both were =
way over expectations of 0.5% and 0.1%. Meanwhile, the CPI reassured =
investors with tame numbers, up 0.3%, still the highest in nine months =
primarily because of rocketing energy prices (up another 4%). The core =
CPI was up only 0.1%. Both were in line with expectations.

Housing starts in January rose 0.2% to their highest in over 16 years. =
Permits fell 5.6% due to a drop in multifamily housing, while permits =
for single family housing rose 0.3% to set a new record high.

Another discouraging sign was new jobless claims, rising 21,000 to 402K =
and considerably worse than the 385K expected. The 4 week moving average =
also rose 4,750 to 394,750. Given the snow conditions in the Northeast, =
and the 4 day week, good chance these numbers are under reported. =
Continuing claims also jumped another 150K as companies continue to lay =
off workers rather than hiring new ones.

US Trade Deficit hit a new record in December at $44.2 billion on the =
back of a weak dollar. Want to bet that January breaks that record?

Next week: on tap are both existing and new home sales, both expected to =
decline slightly. Also, Durable goods orders, expected to rise 1.%, =
watch out if the figure is measurably short. Consumer confidence is =
expected to have continued its decline, and the preliminary GDP for Q4 =
is expected to be raised from 0.7% to 1.3%, another one to watch out for =
if it fails to measure up.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

"M"
Uncertainty of war with Iraq (or when it will start, how long it will =
take, how much damage in human and oil field terms) continue to hang =
over the market. Economic concerns both globally and here in the US of A =
continue to signal caution. Proposed tax cuts, with attendant record =
govt deficits, worry global economic leaders. Meanwhile, most indexes =
closed out a second week of gains, but after four declining weeks (most =
of far greater proportions), look mighty anemic and more willing to seek =
new lower levels than to bust thru overhead resistance. Both NASDAQ and =
NYSE moved back into mild overbought territory, and at or above short =
term (20 dma) levels. Time will tell if they can sustain this, or take =
the next leg down to test the October lows. The trend remains down, keep =
your powder dry and preserve your capital.

- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It =
is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's =
"M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with =
constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from =
(and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in =
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views =
or opinions of my employer.

I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, =
and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout =
scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, =
focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all =
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast =
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no =
due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM =
patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases =
(shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR =
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my =
personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any =
stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether =
real money or virtual reality (VR).

The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend is barely enough to =
cover the shallow end of the pool. The sharks, in the deeper water, are =
hungry and aggressive with any willing to venture out further.

ANSI - c&h, long handle
APA - young LLUR??
BWS - c&h, may be trying to break the pivot on volume
ESI - decent c&h forming
HLTH - high handle?, base forming?
IDXC - c&h, in my VR Fund
NSCN - LLUR, owned and in my VR Fund
PCZ - LLUR
PORT - LLUR
PVR - c&h
STHLY - high handle, low price
VAR - high handle?
YHOO (yeah, yahoo) - high handle

Happy Hunting,


Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20
face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New York's Fed gave the first warning of a =
gloomy economic=20
week with the report that manufacturing in&nbsp;February plunged from =
20.7 to=20
1.1, lowest in 4 months. In retrospect, they also gave early warning of =
the jump=20
in PPI to be reported later in the week, noting prices paid index jumped =
to 19.2=20
from 7.3, highest since July '01. And prices received remained benign, =
just as=20
did the CPI, slipping to -14.4 from -15.6. New orders index dropped from =
18.7 to=20
12.3.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PPI shocked the markets by rising 1.6% in =
January, even=20
the core, after stripping out energy and food, shot up 0.9%. Needless to =
say,=20
both were way over expectations of 0.5% and 0.1%. Meanwhile, the CPI =
reassured=20
investors with tame numbers, up 0.3%, still the highest in nine months =
primarily=20
because of rocketing energy prices (up another 4%). The core CPI was up =
only=20
0.1%. Both were in line with expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing starts in January rose 0.2% to their =
highest in=20
over 16 years. Permits fell 5.6% due to a drop in multifamily housing, =
while=20
permits for single family housing rose 0.3% to set a new record=20
high.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Another discouraging sign was new jobless =
claims, rising=20
21,000 to 402K and considerably worse than the 385K expected. The 4 week =
moving=20
average also rose 4,750 to 394,750. Given the snow conditions in the =
Northeast,=20
and the 4 day week, good chance these numbers are under reported. =
Continuing=20
claims also jumped another 150K as companies continue to lay off workers =
rather=20
than hiring new ones.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US Trade Deficit hit a new record in December at =
$44.2=20
billion on the back of a weak dollar. Want to bet that January breaks =
that=20
record?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Next week: on tap are both existing and new home =
sales,=20
both expected to decline slightly. Also, Durable goods orders, expected =
to rise=20
1.%, watch out if the figure is measurably short. Consumer confidence is =

expected to have continued its decline, and the preliminary GDP for Q4 =
is=20
expected to be raised from 0.7% to 1.3%, another one to watch out for if =
it=20
fails to measure up.
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Uncertainty of war with Iraq (or when it will =
start, how=20
long it will take, how much damage in human and oil field terms) =
continue to=20
hang over the market. Economic concerns both globally and here in the US =
of A=20
continue to signal caution. Proposed tax cuts, with attendant record =
govt=20
deficits, worry global economic leaders. Meanwhile, most indexes closed =
out a=20
second week of gains, but after four declining weeks (most of far =
greater=20
proportions), look mighty anemic and more willing to seek new lower =
levels than=20
to bust thru overhead resistance. Both NASDAQ and NYSE moved back into =
mild=20
overbought territory, and at or above short term (20 dma) levels. Time =
will tell=20
if they can sustain this, or take the next leg down to test the October =
lows.=20
The trend remains down, keep your powder dry and preserve your =
capital.</DIV>
<DIV>
<HR>
</DIV></FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST =
WANNABES</STRONG><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any =
stocks to=20
the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health =
of=20
CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some =
stocks=20
with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of =
course doing=20
your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed =
in=20
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly=20
my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or =
opinions of=20
my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS =
ranking of 80=20
or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition =
/=20
buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet =
this&nbsp;general&nbsp;RS/EPS=20
criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I =
consider all=20
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal=20
investing. I&nbsp;no longer will&nbsp;actively consider&nbsp;earnings =
forecast=20
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your =
responsibility</FONT>. I will=20
note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&amp;h, double (or triple) =
bottoms, or=20
flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also =
note LLUR=20
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely=20
are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due =
size,=20
price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a =
current=20
personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20
(VR).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this =
weekend=20
is&nbsp;barely enough to cover the shallow end of the pool. The sharks, =
in the=20
deeper water, are hungry and aggressive with any willing to venture out=20
further.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV>ANSI - c&amp;h, long handle</DIV>
<DIV>APA - young LLUR??</DIV>
<DIV>BWS - c&amp;h, may be trying to break the pivot on volume</DIV>
<DIV>ESI - decent c&amp;h forming</DIV>
<DIV>HLTH - high handle?, base forming?</DIV>
<DIV>IDXC - c&amp;h, in my VR Fund</DIV>
<DIV>NSCN - LLUR, owned and in my VR Fund</DIV>
<DIV>PCZ - LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>PORT - LLUR</DIV>
<DIV>PVR - c&amp;h</DIV>
<DIV>STHLY - high handle, low price</DIV>
<DIV>VAR - high handle?</DIV>
<DIV>YHOO (yeah, yahoo) - high handle</DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></=
DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 =
src=3D"cid:01c301c2dad8$eafc7580$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20
align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: =

TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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