Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sun, 2 Mar 2003 11:35:35 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_00B1_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20" - ------=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Economists started the week by cutting their forecast for this quarter = from 2.6% growth to 2.2%, while also lowering the "fool" year forecast = from 2.6% to 2.5%. Of course, that expectation for the year includes = doing 3.6% in the 4th quarter, down from 4.2% originally. They saw = little change in unemployment, and forecasted nearly a percent rise in = lending rates, which could damage the housing market as mortgage rates = go up as well. Growth in the 4th quarter 2002 GDP was revised up from 0.7% originally = reported, to 1.4%, expectations had been for a revision to 1.0%. Sales of existing homes jumped an unexpected 3% in January to a new = record at an annual rate of 6.09 million from an upwardly revised rate = of 5.91 million in December. The rate had been expected to drop to 5.80 = million. Inventories rose to a 4.5 month supply from a 4.3 month supply. Going the other way, sales of new homes fell 15.2% in January to an = annual rate of 914,000 from 1.08 million in December. A minor decline to = 1.05 million had been expected. While new home sales make up only a = small portion of the total housing sector, they are crucial to the = continued success of homebuilder stock prices. In another contradictory signal, consumer confidence plunged to 64 in = February from 78.8, hitting a nine year low (9 YEARS!!, that's worse = than right after 9/11). Expected was a drop to only 77. The magnitude of = the drop was mirrored in the expectations index, down to 65.6 from 81.1, = and in the present situation index, down to 61.6 from 75.3. Mostly mirroring this was Univ. of Michigan's consumer confidence report = for February, which was revised up slightly to 79.9 from 79.2, but = remains at a nine year low. Expectations were for no change. And just to confuse the picture more, January's Durable Goods report = showed a gain of 3.3% while December's report was revised down to 0.4% = decline. A gain of only 1.3% had been expected for January. Biggest = gainer was automotive, up over 10%. New unemployment claims continued to rise, up 417,000 for the week, = expected was a drop to 390K. The 4 week moving average rose again to = 399,750 while continuing claims dropped slightly to 3.38 million from = 3.42 million. In a prelude to next week's ISM manufacturing production report, the = NAPM-Chicago report for February fell less than expected, to 54.9 from = 56. Expected was a drop to 52.5. Prices paid continued to rise (don't = forget the spike in last month's PPI report) while the employment index = showed layoffs continuing, but at a slower rate. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" As I speculated on this topic last week, it was questionable whether the = two weeks of gains might be sustained. Now we know, it was not, another = losing week and indexes struggling to stay in the neighborhood of their = 20 day moving average. Charts look like we are just muddling along, = going no where in particular, no leadership, money moving around but not = staying, volume remains light, lots of uncertainty yet not an avalanche = of bearish sentiment either. What breakouts do occur, even from = fundamentally strong companies, also mostly fail quickly. The market = pundits keep suggesting we will retest the October lows, so far I don't = see evidence of that, nor do I see signs we are ready to start a = sustained rally of any size. Economic reports this week were mixed at = best, and did nothing to offset the bearish reports of last week. In = particular, the data on new single family housing suggests this sector = is finally slowing, even while existing housing remains strong. The = builders may finally be ready for a correction, even tho past worries of = a housing bubble have kept most from being overpriced. Iraq remains the = overriding and compelling influence on all markets. Israel's market was = up 2.5% in Sunday trading, I am sure a lot of that was due to Iraq = destroying 4 (of over 100) of their missiles on Saturday, thus lowering = the expectation of war just a bit. Until the issue of Iraq is resolved, = I do not expect markets to reflect their fundamental nature, and right = now the economic reports are simply not strong enough, any more than = corporate earnings, to suggest the markets should be rallying even = without the issue of Iraq. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN The nomination of the new Governor for the Bank of Japan pleased few = economists hoping for more radical efforts to shake Japan, the world's = #2 economy, out of its third recession in a decade and end the ongoing = deflationary cycle in which it finds itself. Conservative, "old guard", = Toshihiko Fukui will, however, be balanced by his two new Deputies = (Kazumasa Iwata from the Cabinet Office, and Toshiro Muto, former Vice = Finance Minister), who are expected to bring better connections with the = government, as well as more aggressive and radical approaches to Japan's = problems. The compromise appointments seem to this writer that change = will only come about rapidly and radically if Fukui's appointment is = purely face saving figure head, and BOJ policy will be set much more by = the new deputies. The fiscal year for everything Japanese is now a month = away, squaring up of the books, and writing off of bad loans, and = marking bank investment portfolios down to actual market value, could = get ugly quickly with the Nikkei having now given up all its recent = gains and slid under 8400. The continuing uncertainty over war against = Iraq will continue to weaken the US dollar and strengthen the yen, = despite recent "stealth" (please, how much stealth is there left in the = financial world anymore?) yen/dollar intervention by Japan. This hurts = Japanese exporters and the global competitiveness of the pricing on = their products. Domestic consumption within Japan continues to contract, = further hurting companies needing to increase volume even if the = deflation prevents raising prices. To date, I have seen very little = action on either the govt plans to buy back loans and rehabilitate the = borrowing company, or buying large chunks of the stock portfolios from = banks needing to build their capital reserves. I see no hope for an = economic recovery in Japan until such time as the banking industry = begins an honest assessment of their non-performing loans, declare those = in default to be in default, and either force the govt to begin buying = those loans and rehabilitate the company where possible, or else the = lending bank(s) force the company into bankruptcy and write off the = loan. And yes, this will also force a number of banks into bankruptcy = themselves, as their capital reserves, on paper, are sufficient but only = because of phony bookkeeping. There must also be an end to the cultural = practice of buying stock from the very companies they lend to, thus = adding to the bank loss when the company fails. Ultimately, I suspect = this will take a new regulation from the govt as it is so deeply = imbedded in culture. Unfortunately, I have little hope of this ever = happening unless and until the Nikkei falls well into the 7000 range, = and takes bank portfolios so low that even with the generous rules used = now they still fail to meet capital requirements, and themselves fail. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continues to be = meager and depressing, but in line with the reality of new highs, and = even stocks moving above their 200 dma. APOL - new handle forming?, volume increasing AVCT - continuation of a high handle?? BHE - short term staircase BLL - long handle on the cup ELTE - flat base, in my VR Fund, low priced, low liquidity, small cap GAF - B7 GGP - LLUR GIL - B8 HLTH - high handle IMO - decent cup, nice fundies IRM - b/o Friday on volume from a double bottom NSCN - LLUR, own and in my VR Fund, small cap PORT - LLUR RBK - B5 REP - high handle RVSN - 14 week c&h, volume drying up, low priced, low liquidity Happy Hunting, and keep your powder dry Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Economists started the week by cutting their = forecast for=20 this quarter from 2.6% growth to 2.2%, while also lowering the "fool" = year=20 forecast from 2.6% to 2.5%. Of course, that expectation for the year = includes=20 doing 3.6% in the 4th quarter, down from 4.2% originally. They saw = little change=20 in unemployment, and forecasted nearly a percent rise in lending rates, = which=20 could damage the housing market as mortgage rates go up as = well.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Growth in the 4th quarter 2002 GDP was revised = up from=20 0.7% originally reported, to 1.4%, expectations had been for a revision = to=20 1.0%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sales of existing homes jumped an unexpected 3% = in=20 January to a new record at an annual rate of 6.09 million from an = upwardly=20 revised rate of 5.91 million in December. The rate had been expected to = drop to=20 5.80 million. Inventories rose to a 4.5 month supply from a 4.3 month=20 supply.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Going the other way, sales of new homes fell = 15.2% in=20 January to an annual rate of 914,000 from 1.08 million in December. A = minor=20 decline to 1.05 million had been expected. While new home sales make up = only a=20 small portion of the total housing sector, they are crucial to the = continued=20 success of homebuilder stock prices.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another contradictory signal, consumer = confidence=20 plunged to 64 in February from 78.8, hitting a nine year low (9 YEARS!!, = that's=20 worse than right after 9/11). Expected was a drop to only 77. The = magnitude of=20 the drop was mirrored in the expectations index, down to 65.6 from 81.1, = and in=20 the present situation index, down to 61.6 from 75.3.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mostly mirroring this was Univ. of Michigan's = consumer=20 confidence report for February, which was revised up slightly to 79.9 = from 79.2,=20 but remains at a nine year low. Expectations were for no = change.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>And just to confuse the picture more, January's = Durable=20 Goods report showed a gain of 3.3% while December's report was revised = down to=20 0.4% decline. A gain of only 1.3% had been expected for January. Biggest = gainer=20 was automotive, up over 10%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New unemployment claims continued to rise, up = 417,000 for=20 the week, expected was a drop to 390K. The 4 week moving average = rose again=20 to 399,750 while continuing claims dropped slightly to 3.38 million from = 3.42=20 million.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In a prelude to next week's ISM manufacturing = production=20 report, the NAPM-Chicago report for February fell less than expected, to = 54.9=20 from 56. Expected was a drop to 52.5. Prices paid continued to rise = (don't=20 forget the spike in last month's PPI report) while the employment index = showed=20 layoffs continuing, but at a slower rate. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>As I speculated on this topic last week, it was=20 questionable whether the two weeks of gains might be sustained. Now we = know, it=20 was not, another losing week and indexes struggling to stay in the = neighborhood=20 of their 20 day moving average. Charts look like we are just muddling = along,=20 going no where in particular, no leadership, money moving around but not = staying, volume remains light, lots of uncertainty yet not an avalanche = of=20 bearish sentiment either. What breakouts do occur, even from = fundamentally=20 strong companies, also mostly fail quickly. The market pundits keep = suggesting=20 we will retest the October lows, so far I don't see evidence of that, = nor do I=20 see signs we are ready to start a sustained rally of any size. Economic = reports=20 this week were mixed at best, and did nothing to offset the bearish = reports of=20 last week. In particular, the data on new single family housing suggests = this=20 sector is finally slowing, even while existing housing remains strong. = The=20 builders may finally be ready for a correction, even tho past worries of = a=20 housing bubble have kept most from being overpriced. Iraq remains the = overriding=20 and compelling influence on all markets. Israel's market was up 2.5% in = Sunday=20 trading, I am sure a lot of that was due to Iraq destroying 4 (of over = 100) of=20 their missiles on Saturday, thus lowering the expectation of war just a = bit.=20 Until the issue of Iraq is resolved, I do not expect markets to reflect = their=20 fundamental nature, and right now the economic reports are simply not = strong=20 enough, any more than corporate earnings, to suggest the markets should = be=20 rallying even without the issue of Iraq. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The nomination of the new Governor for the Bank = of Japan=20 pleased few economists hoping for more radical efforts to shake Japan, = the=20 world's #2 economy, out of its third recession in a decade and end the = ongoing=20 deflationary cycle in which it finds itself. Conservative, "old guard",=20 Toshihiko Fukui will, however, be balanced by his two new Deputies = (Kazumasa=20 Iwata from the Cabinet Office, and Toshiro Muto, former Vice Finance = Minister),=20 who are expected to bring better connections with the government, as = well as=20 more aggressive and radical approaches to Japan's problems. The = compromise=20 appointments seem to this writer that change will only come about = rapidly and=20 radically if Fukui's appointment is purely face saving figure head, and = BOJ=20 policy will be set much more by the new deputies. The fiscal year for = everything=20 Japanese is now a month away, squaring up of the books, and writing off = of bad=20 loans, and marking bank investment portfolios down to actual market = value, could=20 get ugly quickly with the Nikkei having now given up all its recent = gains and=20 slid under 8400. The continuing uncertainty over war against Iraq will = continue=20 to weaken the US dollar and strengthen the yen, despite recent "stealth" = (please, how much stealth is there left in the financial world anymore?) = yen/dollar intervention by Japan. This hurts Japanese exporters and the = global=20 competitiveness of the pricing on their products. Domestic consumption = within=20 Japan continues to contract, further hurting companies needing to = increase=20 volume even if the deflation prevents raising prices. To date, I have = seen very=20 little action on either the govt plans to buy back loans and = rehabilitate the=20 borrowing company, or buying large chunks of the stock portfolios from = banks=20 needing to build their capital reserves. I see no hope for an economic = recovery=20 in Japan until such time as the banking industry begins an honest = assessment of=20 their non-performing loans, declare those in default to be in default, = and=20 either force the govt to begin buying those loans and rehabilitate the = company=20 where possible, or else the lending bank(s) force the company into = bankruptcy=20 and write off the loan. And yes, this will also force a number of banks = into=20 bankruptcy themselves, as their capital reserves, on paper, are = sufficient but=20 only because of phony bookkeeping. There must also be an end to the = cultural=20 practice of buying stock from the very companies they lend to, thus = adding to=20 the bank loss when the company fails. Ultimately, I suspect this will = take a new=20 regulation from the govt as it is so deeply imbedded in culture. = Unfortunately,=20 I have little hope of this ever happening unless and until the Nikkei = falls well=20 into the 7000 range, and takes bank portfolios so low that even with the = generous rules used now they still fail to meet capital requirements, = and=20 themselves fail. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 continues to be meager and depressing, but in line with the reality of = new=20 highs, and even stocks moving above their 200 dma.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - new handle forming?, volume = increasing</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AVCT - continuation of a high = handle??</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BHE - short term staircase</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BLL - long handle on the cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - flat base, in my VR Fund, low priced, low = liquidity, small cap</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GAF - B7</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GGP - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GIL - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HLTH - high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMO - decent cup, nice fundies</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IRM - b/o Friday on volume from a double=20 bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NSCN - LLUR, own and in my VR Fund, small = cap</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PORT - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RBK - B5</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>REP - high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>RVSN - 14 week c&h, volume drying up, low = priced, low=20 liquidity</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, and keep your powder=20 dry</FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></D= IV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:00b001c2e0d9$c051b320$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_00B2_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20-- - ------=_NextPart_000_00B1_01C2E0AF.D77E1C20 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <00b001c2e0d9$c051b320$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ MwCZZgCZmQCZzACZ/zOZADOZMzOZZjOZmTOZzDOZ/2aZAGaZM2aZZmaZmWaZzGaZ/5mZAJmZM5mZ ZpmZmZmZzJmZ/8yZAMyZM8yZZsyZmcyZzMyZ//+ZAP+ZM/+ZZv+Zmf+ZzP+Z/wDMAADMMwDMZgDM 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