Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC
Date: Mon, 3 Mar 2003 22:00:28 -0500
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Mike, on 11/4/02 I started buying stocks on margin, six in total so far.
Five of them are internet / computer security related (the longer term
members would rightfully guess that the sixth one is EPIQ for my sixth
ride).  This was my first ever venture into overweighing a single sector, in
fact only the first time I actively invested on the basis of sector
orientation.

While I did not buy SYMC (too large and high priced for my style), it was
also looking pretty good at the time.

Don't blame the conference call for the gap down, blame Management for
having beaten earnings expectations only to turn around and warn that the
current qtr was expected to be below expectations. I don't know if they
cannibalized some of the current qtr business to load up the last qtr to
make / beat expectations, or if this is simply how the business is shaping
up. Either way, the market reacted (like it should) to the forward looking
comments, and gapped down.

How could you avoid the gap? Well, certainly one way as already pointed out
was to comply with the ugly "M" and stay in cash. A second alternative is to
just take small profits when you can, but they will not likely offset a gap
down like this that you couldn't see coming. Get burnt once, and it likely
wipes out all the small gains. Chart wise, it doesn't look to me like there
was a clear exit signal. Looks kinda range bound just waiting for a reason
to go in one direction or another until the gap down. Volume was below
average, but then so are most stocks right now. If anything, volume was
lighter on the down days than the up days. And RS was rising right before
the gap down. Even in hindsight, I don't see a warning in the chart.

The only other indication I could suggest (from the perspective of my
personal holdings) is that the entire sector seemed to me to be weakening in
the past several weeks. I had several major gap down events in my little
universe, and they all hurt.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 12:03 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC



Jon

I appreciate the response, and I do agree with you.  I guess I tend to be
too aggressive, and part of my CANSLIM learning is to be more disciplined.
I think SYMC is a good stock, but maybe I did not buy at the right time,
but when you get a 15% drop in one day because of a conference call, it
seems like NO system would protect against that, except for hard stop
orders being placed.  Maybe that is what I will take away from this, after
entering a position, immediately put in the 8% stop loss order, just in
case.

Mike




Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    "Jonathan Lobatto"
                    <jlobatto@nyc.rr.com>         To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    Sent by:                      cc:
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm        Subject:     Re: [CANSLIM]
SYMC
                    ission.com


                    03/03/2003 10:30 AM
                    Please respond to

                    canslim






Mike,

I know this isn't particularly what you want to hear, but "M" is just plain
lousy and the overwhelming percentage of the few stocks that manage a
breakout, proceed to breakdown. Of course there are a few stocks that do
manage to make consistent highs and it's tempting when seeing those to
assume it's just a question of doing better homework or tinkering with
CANSLIM rules a bit to find the next one, but the odds are overwhelmingly
against it in this market environment. There are some foreign stocks (e.g.
China & Argentina) that are quite strong and I raised the issue of trying
to
apply CANSLIM to them a couple of weeks ago, but it was not greeted with
much enthusiasm which I fully understand.

Jon
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 10:29 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] SYMC


> Sometime I really hate the stockmarket!   I was in on SYMC, and was on a
5%
> profit, when suddenly I noticed Friday that it started to tank, big time.
I
> scrambled to find out why, and it turns out that the CC was not viewed
> well. I waited it out, hoping that it would get no worst than a 10% loss,
> but when it hit that point, and looked like it was going to keep moving
> down, I bailed out.  Of course, it did go a bit lower, then moved up a
bit,
> but ended up down large for the day.  Of course, this morning, at open,
it
> gapped up 4%.
>
> Is there anything within CANSLIM that would keep me out of a situation
like
> this? Or is this a case where you sell out of a position because of the
> sell rules, but then get back in later?
>
> Thanks
>
> Mike
>
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
>
>
>
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