Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC
Date: Mon, 3 Mar 2003 22:08:16 -0500
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Mike, I picked this up tonight, probably explains the early rally:
Software maker Symantec (SYMC), +2.85% at 42.03, has been upgraded by =
UBS Warburg to "buy" from "neutral."
Being the suspicious person that I am, it's curious they would come out =
with an upgrade just now. Wonder if UBS has an investment banking =
relationship with them?
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 10:00 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC
Mike, on 11/4/02 I started buying stocks on margin, six in total so far.
Five of them are internet / computer security related (the longer term
members would rightfully guess that the sixth one is EPIQ for my sixth
ride). This was my first ever venture into overweighing a single =
sector, in
fact only the first time I actively invested on the basis of sector
orientation.
While I did not buy SYMC (too large and high priced for my style), it =
was
also looking pretty good at the time.
Don't blame the conference call for the gap down, blame Management for
having beaten earnings expectations only to turn around and warn that =
the
current qtr was expected to be below expectations. I don't know if they
cannibalized some of the current qtr business to load up the last qtr to
make / beat expectations, or if this is simply how the business is =
shaping
up. Either way, the market reacted (like it should) to the forward =
looking
comments, and gapped down.
How could you avoid the gap? Well, certainly one way as already pointed =
out
was to comply with the ugly "M" and stay in cash. A second alternative =
is to
just take small profits when you can, but they will not likely offset a =
gap
down like this that you couldn't see coming. Get burnt once, and it =
likely
wipes out all the small gains. Chart wise, it doesn't look to me like =
there
was a clear exit signal. Looks kinda range bound just waiting for a =
reason
to go in one direction or another until the gap down. Volume was below
average, but then so are most stocks right now. If anything, volume was
lighter on the down days than the up days. And RS was rising right =
before
the gap down. Even in hindsight, I don't see a warning in the chart.
The only other indication I could suggest (from the perspective of my
personal holdings) is that the entire sector seemed to me to be =
weakening in
the past several weeks. I had several major gap down events in my little
universe, and they all hurt.
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 12:03 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC
Jon
I appreciate the response, and I do agree with you. I guess I tend to =
be
too aggressive, and part of my CANSLIM learning is to be more =
disciplined.
I think SYMC is a good stock, but maybe I did not buy at the right time,
but when you get a 15% drop in one day because of a conference call, it
seems like NO system would protect against that, except for hard stop
orders being placed. Maybe that is what I will take away from this, =
after
entering a position, immediately put in the 8% stop loss order, just in
case.
Mike
Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
"Jonathan Lobatto"
<jlobatto@nyc.rr.com> To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent by: cc:
owner-canslim@lists.xm Subject: Re: =
[CANSLIM]
SYMC
ission.com
03/03/2003 10:30 AM
Please respond to
canslim
Mike,
I know this isn't particularly what you want to hear, but "M" is just =
plain
lousy and the overwhelming percentage of the few stocks that manage a
breakout, proceed to breakdown. Of course there are a few stocks that do
manage to make consistent highs and it's tempting when seeing those to
assume it's just a question of doing better homework or tinkering with
CANSLIM rules a bit to find the next one, but the odds are =
overwhelmingly
against it in this market environment. There are some foreign stocks =
(e.g.
China & Argentina) that are quite strong and I raised the issue of =
trying
to
apply CANSLIM to them a couple of weeks ago, but it was not greeted with
much enthusiasm which I fully understand.
Jon
- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 10:29 AM
Subject: [CANSLIM] SYMC
> Sometime I really hate the stockmarket! I was in on SYMC, and was on =
a
5%
> profit, when suddenly I noticed Friday that it started to tank, big =
time.
I
> scrambled to find out why, and it turns out that the CC was not viewed
> well. I waited it out, hoping that it would get no worst than a 10% =
loss,
> but when it hit that point, and looked like it was going to keep =
moving
> down, I bailed out. Of course, it did go a bit lower, then moved up a
bit,
> but ended up down large for the day. Of course, this morning, at =
open,
it
> gapped up 4%.
>
> Is there anything within CANSLIM that would keep me out of a situation
like
> this? Or is this a case where you sell out of a position because of =
the
> sell rules, but then get back in later?
>
> Thanks
>
> Mike
>
> Mike Niemotka , PE
> Sr. Principal Engineer
> Baxter Healthcare Corporation
> Route 120 & Wilson Road
> Round Lake, IL 60073
> Tel (847) 270-4075
> Fax (847) 270-4525
> michael_niemotka@baxter.com
>
>
>
> -
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> -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
> -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
- -
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- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike, I picked this up tonight, probably =
explains the=20
early rally:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000 size=3D2>Software maker Symantec =
(</FONT><A=20
href=3D"http://tm0.com/sbct.cgi?s=3D481167470&i=3D742340&m=3D2&am=
p;d=3D4055241"><FONT=20
face=3DArial color=3D#ff0000 size=3D2>SYMC</FONT></A><FONT face=3DArial =
color=3D#ff0000=20
size=3D2>), +2.85% at 42.03, has been upgraded by UBS Warburg to "buy" =
from=20
"neutral."</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Being the suspicious person that I am, it's =
curious they=20
would come out with an upgrade just now. Wonder if UBS has an investment =
banking=20
relationship with them?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>----- Original Message ----- </FONT>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>From: "Tom Worley" <</FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>To: <</FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>canslim@lists.xmission.com</FONT></A><FONT=20
face=3DArial>></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sent: Monday, March 03, 2003 10:00 =
PM</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC</FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><BR></FONT></DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Mike, on =
11/4/02 I=20
started buying stocks on margin, six in total so far.<BR>Five of them =
are=20
internet / computer security related (the longer term<BR>members would=20
rightfully guess that the sixth one is EPIQ for my sixth<BR>ride). =
This=20
was my first ever venture into overweighing a single sector, in<BR>fact =
only the=20
first time I actively invested on the basis of=20
sector<BR>orientation.<BR><BR>While I did not buy SYMC (too large and =
high=20
priced for my style), it was<BR>also looking pretty good at the=20
time.<BR><BR>Don't blame the conference call for the gap down, blame =
Management=20
for<BR>having beaten earnings expectations only to turn around and warn =
that=20
the<BR>current qtr was expected to be below expectations. I don't know =
if=20
they<BR>cannibalized some of the current qtr business to load up the =
last qtr=20
to<BR>make / beat expectations, or if this is simply how the business is =
shaping<BR>up. Either way, the market reacted (like it should) to the =
forward=20
looking<BR>comments, and gapped down.<BR><BR>How could you avoid the =
gap? Well,=20
certainly one way as already pointed out<BR>was to comply with the ugly =
"M" and=20
stay in cash. A second alternative is to<BR>just take small profits when =
you=20
can, but they will not likely offset a gap<BR>down like this that you =
couldn't=20
see coming. Get burnt once, and it likely<BR>wipes out all the small =
gains.=20
Chart wise, it doesn't look to me like there<BR>was a clear exit signal. =
Looks=20
kinda range bound just waiting for a reason<BR>to go in one direction or =
another=20
until the gap down. Volume was below<BR>average, but then so are most =
stocks=20
right now. If anything, volume was<BR>lighter on the down days than the =
up days.=20
And RS was rising right before<BR>the gap down. Even in hindsight, I =
don't see a=20
warning in the chart.<BR><BR>The only other indication I could suggest =
(from the=20
perspective of my<BR>personal holdings) is that the entire sector seemed =
to me=20
to be weakening in<BR>the past several weeks. I had several major gap =
down=20
events in my little<BR>universe, and they all hurt.<BR><BR>----- =
Original=20
Message -----<BR>From: <</FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>michael_niemotka@baxter.com</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>><BR>To:=20
<</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>canslim@lists.xmission.com</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>><BR>Sent:=20
Monday, March 03, 2003 12:03 PM<BR>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM]=20
SYMC<BR><BR><BR><BR>Jon<BR><BR>I appreciate the response, and I do agree =
with=20
you. I guess I tend to be<BR>too aggressive, and part of my =
CANSLIM=20
learning is to be more disciplined.<BR>I think SYMC is a good stock, but =
maybe I=20
did not buy at the right time,<BR>but when you get a 15% drop in one day =
because=20
of a conference call, it<BR>seems like NO system would protect against =
that,=20
except for hard stop<BR>orders being placed. Maybe that is what I =
will=20
take away from this, after<BR>entering a position, immediately put in =
the 8%=20
stop loss order, just in<BR>case.<BR><BR>Mike<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Mike =
Niemotka ,=20
PE<BR>Sr. Principal Engineer<BR>Baxter Healthcare Corporation<BR>Route =
120 &=20
Wilson Road<BR>Round Lake, IL 60073<BR>Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>Fax (847)=20
270-4525<BR></FONT><A href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>michael_niemotka@baxter.com</FONT></A><BR><BR><BR><BR><FONT =
face=3DArial> =
=20
"Jonathan=20
Lobatto"<BR> &=
nbsp; =20
<</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>jlobatto@nyc.rr.com</FONT></A><FONT=20
face=3DArial>> =
To:<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>canslim@lists.xmission.com</FONT></A><BR><FONT=20
face=3DArial> =
=20
Sent=20
by: &nbs=
p; =20
cc:<BR> =
=20
</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xm"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>owner-canslim@lists.xm</FONT></A><FONT=20
face=3DArial> =20
Subject: Re:=20
[CANSLIM]<BR>SYMC<BR> &nbs=
p; =20
ission.com<BR><BR><BR> &nb=
sp; =20
03/03/2003 10:30=20
AM<BR> &=
nbsp; =20
Please respond=20
to<BR><BR> &nb=
sp; =20
canslim<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>Mike,<BR><BR>I know this isn't =
particularly=20
what you want to hear, but "M" is just plain<BR>lousy and the =
overwhelming=20
percentage of the few stocks that manage a<BR>breakout, proceed to =
breakdown. Of=20
course there are a few stocks that do<BR>manage to make consistent highs =
and=20
it's tempting when seeing those to<BR>assume it's just a question of =
doing=20
better homework or tinkering with<BR>CANSLIM rules a bit to find the =
next one,=20
but the odds are overwhelmingly<BR>against it in this market =
environment. There=20
are some foreign stocks (e.g.<BR>China & Argentina) that are quite =
strong=20
and I raised the issue of trying<BR>to<BR>apply CANSLIM to them a couple =
of=20
weeks ago, but it was not greeted with<BR>much enthusiasm which I fully=20
understand.<BR><BR>Jon<BR>----- Original Message -----<BR>From: =
<</FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>michael_niemotka@baxter.com</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>><BR>To:=20
<</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>canslim@lists.xmission.com</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>><BR>Sent:=20
Monday, March 03, 2003 10:29 AM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] =
SYMC<BR><BR><BR>>=20
Sometime I really hate the stockmarket! I was in on SYMC, =
and was on=20
a<BR>5%<BR>> profit, when suddenly I noticed Friday that it started =
to tank,=20
big time.<BR>I<BR>> scrambled to find out why, and it turns out that =
the CC=20
was not viewed<BR>> well. I waited it out, hoping that it would get =
no worst=20
than a 10% loss,<BR>> but when it hit that point, and looked like it =
was=20
going to keep moving<BR>> down, I bailed out. Of course, it did =
go a=20
bit lower, then moved up a<BR>bit,<BR>> but ended up down large for =
the=20
day. Of course, this morning, at open,<BR>it<BR>> gapped up=20
4%.<BR>><BR>> Is there anything within CANSLIM that would keep me =
out of a=20
situation<BR>like<BR>> this? Or is this a case where you sell out of =
a=20
position because of the<BR>> sell rules, but then get back in=20
later?<BR>><BR>> Thanks<BR>><BR>> Mike<BR>><BR>> Mike =
Niemotka=20
, PE<BR>> Sr. Principal Engineer<BR>> Baxter Healthcare=20
Corporation<BR>> Route 120 & Wilson Road<BR>> Round Lake, IL=20
60073<BR>> Tel (847) 270-4075<BR>> Fax (847) 270-4525<BR>> =
</FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>michael_niemotka@baxter.com</FONT></A><BR><FONT=20
face=3DArial>><BR>><BR>><BR>> -<BR>> -To =
subscribe/unsubscribe,=20
email "</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>majordomo@xmission.com</FONT></A><FONT =
face=3DArial>"<BR>> -In the=20
email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe =
canslim". =20
Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To =
subscribe/unsubscribe,=20
email "</FONT><A href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com"><FONT=20
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Next Article (by Author): [CANSLIM] SYMC michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Previous Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] SYMC "Tom Worley"
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