Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 8 Mar 2003 19:04:34 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0112_01C2E5A5.8E642ED0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0113_01C2E5A5.8E669FD0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0113_01C2E5A5.8E669FD0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Another dismal week for economics reports, possibly beginning to show = the true state of the US economy even without the influence of Iraqi war = fears. For some time the market pundits have been saying the stock = markets were disconnecting from the state of the economy because of the = war fears, maybe the markets were more connected, and simply giving an = advance forecast, to a greater degree than was being appreciated? Then = again, maybe this time they will get it right when they tell us the = economy will improve by mid-year, or at least by the second half of the = year, or maybe next year. Construction spending started the week off strong, showing a rise of = 1.7% for January and well ahead of expectations for a 0.5% gain. = Residential construction directly contributed, hitting a new record = high. Auto makers led off with their share of dismal news, reporting flat to = down sales figures for February. #1 in the industry is GM, which saw = sales drop 19%. #2 Ford was flat for the month, while Chrysler saw a 4% = decline. Both GM and Ford indicated they were cutting production from = previously planned levels for the 2nd qtr (more layoffs coming?). = Everyone blamed a decline in consumer confidence and the snowstorms. Consumer spending in January also headed south, down 0.1% against = expectations of a 0.1% rise. Personal income rose 0.3%, below = expectations of a 0.4% rise. Reason for the decline in spending? Big = fall in auto sales, wonder what February's report will look like? In another bit of bad news, ISM reports that manufacturing activity = continued slowing in February, coming in at 50.5 (barely in the = "expansion" range), down from 53.9 in January and well under = expectations of 52.0. The New Orders Index fell from 59.7 all the way = down to 52.3, the Employment Index continued contracting, down from 47.6 = to 42.8 (means rate of layoffs increasing). And warning of future = problems with profits, the Prices Paid Index jumped from 57.5 to 65.5, = largely due higher energy costs. In slight contrast, the ISM report on the service sector slipped, but = not as much, to 53.9, down from 54.5 but ahead of expectations of 53.0. = However, even there the employment index slipped into contraction at 49 = from January's 50.3. New orders index dropped to 53 from 56.2, while the = Price Index rose to 60.9 from 57.0, showing that the service sector is = still able to raise prices to keep up somewhat with higher costs. Then in a separate poll, Commerce Department reports that in January = manufacturing orders increased 2.1%. Hummmm, who do we believe, the = govt, or the manufacturers?? Expectations were for a rise of 1.8%. A total of 138,177 layoffs were announced in February, up 5% from = January. More talk of a pending rate cut by the Feds, most likely at the May or = June meeting of FOMC. Nice summary of the influences on the economy, and = likelihood of a rate cut, found at = http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/04/news/economy/fed_cut/index.htm Productivity for the 4th quarter 2002 was revised up to 0.8% from the = original report of minus 0.2%. Productivity for the year was 4.8%, best = since 1950. Maybe everyone left employed is scared of losing their job?? = Unit labor costs were up 3.8% for the quarter, but down 1.9% for the = year. Hourly compensation rose 4.6% in the 4th quarter, and 2.8% for the = year. Weekly report for new unemployment claims continued the litany of bad = news, showing new claims jumping to 430,000 and the 4 week average = shooting up from 400K to 408,750. Rounding out the week with its "bad boy" report was the Employment = report for February. While the rise to 5.8% unemployment was not = surprising, the loss of 308,000 jobs (against an expectation of 8,000 to = 20,000 new jobs) was a shock. Market headed south, then recovered on = news (still unconfirmed) that two of Osama's 23 sons had been captured. = Nice to see that at least some now unemployed terrorists can find = immediate new employment, as govt informers, even if it's not their job = preference. The Govt couldn't explain the sharp loss of jobs, suggesting = maybe, possibly, could be because of the callup of reservists for = service in the Mid-East, thus losing their civilian paycheck. And, of = course, the blizzards were blamed. The Govt also admitted that the = February unemployment rate of 5.8% is not comparable to January's 5.7% = because they tinkered with the numbers, just like they admitted last = month that January's figures were not comparable to December's for the = same reason. So, does this mean the real rate, that WOULD be comparable, = is already over 6%?? And BLS (Bureau of Labor and Statistics) announced = it expects to resume the layoffs report in late March or early April, = suspended since December due lack of funding. Is it coincidence that the = last time this report was suspended was also in a Bush administration = (the father) in 1992 until 1994?? - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" Another losing week for all indexes, second in a row, and continuing the = slide below both the 50 and 200 dma. With the exception of the DJ = Transportation Index, the rest are testing their July low, but so far = volume remains light, and only time will tell if the October lows are = replaced with new lows. The trend is your friend, and it's heading = south, so "M" still says stay in cash if you can. In just one more sign = of the poor economy, one sub-sector of the retail group is remaining = strong, pawn shops. Check out PWN and FCFS (latter in my VR Fund). = Transportation predictably being excessively affected by the increasing = price of fuel, both airlines and trucking companies. Of course, all = those pending or actual bankruptcies are not helping either. The = consumer is also affected by the higher prices of gas, takes money away = from discretionary spending, makes travel and vacations more expensive, = and generally gives a real negative feeling about finances. Add to that = the weak dollar, making imports more expensive, as well as any foreign = travel, and there is plenty of reason to worry besides an upcoming war = with Iraq. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN Some things don't seem to change in this second largest economy in the = world. Deflation, Recession, Unemployment, Bankruptcies, Conservative = attitudes, reluctance and resistance to even admitting reality, much = less invoking real change. Outcome predictable, especially with the = price of energy still rising, and the dollar still weakening against the = yen. Latest rally fails at a lower level than the last one, big losses = in the Nikkei, hits and closes at a new 20 year (YEAR!!!!) low.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend continues to = shrink, in line with market trends. Even looking at stocks moving above = their 200 dma fails to produce more than a handful of candidates, and = these are much more a value play than a momentum / fundamentals = possibility. ACET - approached the pivot on Friday from a double bottom AGN - forming right side of cup (long term), breaking pivot on short = term, volume low APOL - at the pivot of a long trading range base AVCT - handle forming? BER - high handle on a decent cup DAKT - early LLUR? EBAY - LLUR beginning ELTE - c&h, in my VR Fund GAF - B8 HLTH - c&h IMO - handle forming NWSB - B6 OZRK - B7+ PORT - LLUR SSYS - c&h, in my VR Fund Happy Hunting, keep your power dry, "M" will turn in our favor, some day Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0113_01C2E5A5.8E669FD0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Another dismal week for economics reports, = possibly=20 beginning to show the true state of the US economy even without the = influence of=20 Iraqi war fears. For some time the market pundits have been saying the = stock=20 markets were disconnecting from the state of the economy because of the = war=20 fears, maybe the markets were more connected, and simply giving an = advance=20 forecast, to a greater degree than was being appreciated? Then again, = maybe this=20 time they will get it right when they tell us the economy will improve = by=20 mid-year, or at least by the second half of the year, or maybe next=20 year.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Construction spending started the week off = strong, showing=20 a rise of 1.7% for January and well ahead of expectations for a 0.5% = gain.=20 Residential construction directly contributed, hitting a new record=20 high.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Auto makers led off with their share of dismal = news,=20 reporting flat to down sales figures for February. #1 in the industry is = GM,=20 which saw sales drop 19%. #2 Ford was flat for the month, while Chrysler = saw a=20 4% decline. Both GM and Ford indicated they were cutting production from = previously planned levels for the 2nd qtr (more layoffs coming?). = Everyone=20 blamed a decline in consumer confidence and the snowstorms.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Consumer spending in January also headed south, = down 0.1%=20 against expectations of a 0.1% rise. Personal income rose 0.3%, below=20 expectations of a 0.4% rise. Reason for the decline in spending? Big = fall in=20 auto sales, wonder what February's report will look like?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In another bit of bad news, ISM reports that = manufacturing=20 activity continued slowing in February, coming in at 50.5 (barely in the = "expansion" range), down from 53.9 in January and well under = expectations of=20 52.0. The New Orders Index fell from 59.7 all the way down to 52.3, the=20 Employment Index continued contracting, down from 47.6 to 42.8 (means = rate of=20 layoffs increasing). And warning of future problems with profits, the = Prices=20 Paid Index jumped from 57.5 to 65.5, largely due higher energy=20 costs.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In slight contrast, the ISM report on the = service sector=20 slipped, but not as much, to 53.9, down from 54.5 but ahead of = expectations of=20 53.0. However, even there the employment index slipped into contraction = at 49=20 from January's 50.3. New orders index dropped to 53 from = 56.2, while the=20 Price Index rose to 60.9 from 57.0, showing that the service sector is = still=20 able to raise prices to keep up somewhat with higher costs.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Then in a separate poll, Commerce=20 Department reports that in January manufacturing orders increased = 2.1%.=20 Hummmm, who do we believe, the govt, or the manufacturers?? Expectations = were=20 for a rise of 1.8%.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>A total of 138,177 layoffs were announced in = February, up=20 5% from January.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>More talk of a pending rate cut by the Feds, = most likely=20 at the May or June meeting of FOMC. Nice summary of the influences on = the=20 economy, and likelihood of a rate cut, found at <A=20 href=3D"http://money.cnn.com/2003/03/04/news/economy/fed_cut/index.htm">h= ttp://money.cnn.com/2003/03/04/news/economy/fed_cut/index.htm</A></FONT><= /DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Productivity for the 4th quarter 2002 was = revised up to=20 0.8% from the original report of minus 0.2%. Productivity for the year = was 4.8%,=20 best since 1950. Maybe everyone left employed is scared of losing their = job??=20 Unit labor costs were up 3.8% for the quarter, but down 1.9% for the = year.=20 Hourly compensation rose 4.6% in the 4th quarter, and 2.8% for the=20 year.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Weekly report for new unemployment claims = continued the=20 litany of bad news, showing new claims jumping to 430,000 and the 4 week = average=20 shooting up from 400K to 408,750.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Rounding out the week with its "bad boy" report = was the=20 Employment report for February. While the rise to 5.8% unemployment was = not=20 surprising, the loss of 308,000 jobs (against an expectation of 8,000 to = 20,000=20 new jobs) was a shock. Market headed south, then recovered on news = (still=20 unconfirmed) that two of Osama's 23 sons had been captured. Nice to see = that at=20 least some now unemployed terrorists can find immediate new employment, = as govt=20 informers, even if it's not their job preference. The Govt couldn't = explain the=20 sharp loss of jobs, suggesting maybe, possibly, could be because of = the=20 callup of reservists for service in the Mid-East, thus losing their = civilian=20 paycheck. And, of course, the blizzards were blamed. The Govt also = admitted that=20 the February unemployment rate of 5.8% is not comparable to January's = 5.7%=20 because they tinkered with the numbers, just like they admitted last = month that=20 January's figures were not comparable to December's for the same reason. = So,=20 does this mean the real rate, that WOULD be comparable, is already over = 6%?? And=20 BLS (Bureau of Labor and Statistics) announced it expects to resume the = layoffs=20 report in late March or early April, suspended since December due lack = of=20 funding. Is it coincidence that the last time this report was suspended = was also=20 in a Bush administration (the father) in 1992 until 1994?? <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Another losing week for all indexes, second in a = row, and=20 continuing the slide below both the 50 and 200 dma. With the exception = of the DJ=20 Transportation Index, the rest are testing their July low, but so far = volume=20 remains light, and only time will tell if the October lows are replaced = with new=20 lows. The trend is your friend, and it's heading south, so "M" still = says stay=20 in cash if you can. In just one more sign of the poor economy, one = sub-sector of=20 the retail group is remaining strong, pawn shops. Check out PWN and FCFS = (latter=20 in my VR Fund). Transportation predictably being excessively affected by = the=20 increasing price of fuel, both airlines and trucking companies. Of = course, all=20 those pending or actual bankruptcies are not helping either. The = consumer is=20 also affected by the higher prices of gas, takes money away from = discretionary=20 spending, makes travel and vacations more expensive, and generally gives = a real=20 negative feeling about finances. Add to that the weak dollar, making = imports=20 more expensive, as well as any foreign travel, and there is plenty of = reason to=20 worry besides an upcoming war with Iraq. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Some things don't seem to change in this second = largest=20 economy in the world. Deflation, Recession, Unemployment, Bankruptcies,=20 Conservative attitudes, reluctance and resistance to even admitting = reality,=20 much less invoking real change. Outcome predictable, especially with the = price=20 of energy still rising, and the dollar still weakening against the yen. = Latest=20 rally fails at a lower level than the last one, big losses in the = Nikkei, hits=20 and closes at a new 20 year (YEAR!!!!) low.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend=20 continues to shrink, in line with market trends. Even looking at stocks = moving=20 above their 200 dma fails to produce more than a handful of candidates, = and=20 these are much more a value play than a momentum / fundamentals=20 possibility.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACET - approached the pivot on Friday from a = double=20 bottom</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AGN - forming right side of cup (long term), = breaking=20 pivot on short term, volume low</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - at the pivot of a long trading range=20 base</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AVCT - handle forming?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BER - high handle on a decent cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DAKT - early LLUR?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EBAY - LLUR beginning</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - c&h, in my VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GAF - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>HLTH - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMO - handle forming</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>NWSB - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OZRK - B7+</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PORT - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SSYS - c&h, in my VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting, keep your power dry, "M" will = turn in our=20 favor, some=20 day</FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></D= IV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20 src=3D"cid:011101c2e5cf$773a36d0$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX" align=3Dbaseline = border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0113_01C2E5A5.8E669FD0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0112_01C2E5A5.8E642ED0 Content-Type: image/gif; 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