RE: [CANSLIM] M

From: "Tim Katona" <tkat17@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] M
Date: Tue, 11 Mar 2003 13:58:08 -0800
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Here is another analysis on the war factor. The chart "Annualized Market
Performance Following Key Events" is interesting but I don't fully agree
with the rest of their analysis (or sales pitch).

http://www.russell.com/US/education_center/ARTicle_library/market_analysis/w
arfactor.asp

Tim K.
  -----Original Message-----
  From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
  Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2003 1:48 PM
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M


  I think a lot of people are going to be thinking this, and will be sorely
(and financially disappointed). There will probably be some kind of a relief
bounce once actual war starts. But even if it goes quickly, and with minimal
loss of life and property damage (esp. to the oil fields), I do not expect
the bounce to reverse the bear trend we are still in. Nor do I expect it to
change the economics we continue to see.

  ----- Original Message -----
  From: Gene Ricci
  To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
  Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2003 4:33 PM
  Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M


  Tom, thanks for your insight. I attended a small seminar by
  Rittenhouse and they showed how well the market did after
  wars. I plan to forward it as soon as I get it. Bottom line, their
  data showed that being in the market (post war) ... was good!

  Gene
    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Tom Worley
    To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
    Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2003 2:28 PM
    Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] M


    Ian,

    My impression of the past weeks is that buyers are disappearing. So I
would
    read those up days as meaning sellers were not as motivated due external
    reasons (no bad economic reports, some lessening in the immediacy of war
    with Iraq, etc.). The down days therefore appear to me to be days when
the
    sellers were more motivated to sell, and buyers were still absent.

    I do find it encouraging that so far the sellers, even with the absence
of
    significant buying, have not done more damage to the indexes.

    Best parallel I can suggest would be to study the indexes during the
months
    leading up to Desert Storm beginning (mid Jan 1991 when the air war
phase
    was launched)

    ----- Original Message -----
    From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca>
    To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
    Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2003 3:38 PM
    Subject: [CANSLIM] M


    Hi all:

    I was just looking at a chart of QQQ (NASDAQ-100) and noticed an odd
    pattern:

    Over the last 3 weeks (Since Feb 18 - 16 trading days) the QQQ's have
had 6
    days of increasing, above-average volume. On each of these 6 days, the
index
    went up. On nine of the ten days of declining, below-average volume, the
    index went down.

    Overall, the QQQ is down about 5% (from 25.25 to 24) over those 16 days.

    Does anyone recognize this pattern and know if there are historical
    precedents for the likely direction from here? Dp all these volume days
with
    no 'breakout' forward progress indicate distribution?

    Thanks,

    Ian



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<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D890215521-11032003><FONT color=3D#0000ff>Here is another =
analysis on the war=20
factor. The </FONT><FONT color=3D#000000><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
size=3D3>chart=20
"</FONT><SPAN class=3DlevelSectionTitle><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3>Annualized Market Performance Following Key Events" is =
interesting but I=20
don't fully agree with the rest of their analysis (or sales=20
pitch).</FONT></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D890215521-11032003><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" =
color=3D#000000 size=3D3><SPAN=20
class=3DlevelSectionTitle></SPAN></FONT></SPAN></FONT></FONT></FONT>&nbsp=
;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT face=3DArial><FONT size=3D2><SPAN=20
class=3D890215521-11032003></SPAN><A=20
href=3D"http://www.russell.com/US/education_center/ARTicle_library/market=
_analysis/warfactor.asp">http://www.russell.com/US/education_center/ARTic=
le_library/market_analysis/warfactor.asp</A></FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff size=3D2></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D890215521-11032003><FONT face=3DArial color=3D#0000ff =
size=3D2>Tim=20
K.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
  size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
  owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom=20
  Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, March 11, 2003 1:48 PM<BR><B>To:</B>=20
  canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM]=20
  M<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I think a lot of people are going to be =
thinking this,=20
  and will be sorely (and financially disappointed). There will probably =
be some=20
  kind of a relief bounce once actual war starts. But even if it goes =
quickly,=20
  and with minimal loss of life and property damage (esp. to the oil =
fields), I=20
  do not expect the bounce to reverse the bear trend we are still in. =
Nor do I=20
  expect it to change the economics we continue to see.</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
  <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
  title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</A> =
</DIV>
  <DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
  =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
  <DIV><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, March 11, 2003 4:33 PM</DIV>
  <DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] M</DIV></DIV>
  <DIV><BR></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Tom, thanks for your insight. I =
attended a=20
  small seminar by</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Rittenhouse and they showed how well =
the=20
  market did after</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">wars. I plan to forward it as soon =
as I get=20
  it. Bottom line, their</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">data showed that being in the market =
(post=20
  war) ... was good!</FONT></DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
  <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV>
  <BLOCKQUOTE=20
  style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
    <DIV=20
    style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
    <A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
    Worley</A> </DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
    =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
    </DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Tuesday, March 11, 2003 =
2:28=20
    PM</DIV>
    <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
M</DIV>
    <DIV><BR></DIV>Ian,<BR><BR>My impression of the past weeks is that =
buyers=20
    are disappearing. So I would<BR>read those up days as meaning =
sellers were=20
    not as motivated due external<BR>reasons (no bad economic reports, =
some=20
    lessening in the immediacy of war<BR>with Iraq, etc.). The down days =

    therefore appear to me to be days when the<BR>sellers were more =
motivated to=20
    sell, and buyers were still absent.<BR><BR>I do find it encouraging =
that so=20
    far the sellers, even with the absence of<BR>significant buying, =
have not=20
    done more damage to the indexes.<BR><BR>Best parallel I can suggest =
would be=20
    to study the indexes during the months<BR>leading up to Desert Storm =

    beginning (mid Jan 1991 when the air war phase<BR>was =
launched)<BR><BR>-----=20
    Original Message -----<BR>From: "Ian" &lt;<A=20
    href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">ianstm@shaw.ca</A>&gt;<BR>To: &lt;<A=20
    =
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
&gt;<BR>Sent:=20
    Tuesday, March 11, 2003 3:38 PM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] =
M<BR><BR><BR>Hi=20
    all:<BR><BR>I was just looking at a chart of QQQ (NASDAQ-100) and =
noticed an=20
    odd<BR>pattern:<BR><BR>Over the last 3 weeks (Since Feb 18 - 16 =
trading=20
    days) the QQQ's have had 6<BR>days of increasing, above-average =
volume. On=20
    each of these 6 days, the index<BR>went up. On nine of the ten days =
of=20
    declining, below-average volume, the<BR>index went =
down.<BR><BR>Overall, the=20
    QQQ is down about 5% (from 25.25 to 24) over those 16 =
days.<BR><BR>Does=20
    anyone recognize this pattern and know if there are =
historical<BR>precedents=20
    for the likely direction from here? Dp all these volume days =
with<BR>no=20
    'breakout' forward progress indicate=20
    distribution?<BR><BR>Thanks,<BR><BR>Ian<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20
    subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20
    =
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
 the=20
    email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim".&nbsp; Do=20
    not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To =
subscribe/unsubscribe,=20
    email "<A=20
    =
href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In=
 the=20
    email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe =
canslim".&nbsp; Do=20
    not use quotes in your =
email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>

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