Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 15 Mar 2003 14:15:28 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_0115_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0116_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0" - ------=_NextPart_001_0116_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ECONOMICS Wholesale inventories in January fell 0.2%, biggest drops were auto = inventories down 0.8% and machinery down 1.0%. Expectations were for a = rise of 0.3%. Concurrently, sales rose 1.0%, but mostly due to the 7.6% = increase in petroleum sales. The good news is that the stock to sales = inventory slightly declined to 1.21 months, meaning any pickup in real = sales means manufacturers must respond with increased production. Keep = that up, and maybe we might even see a few new jobs created and people = hired. In an interesting juxtaposition, overall business inventories rose in = January, up 0.2% following the revised gain of 0.7% in December. Sales = were also up by 1.2%, moving the stock to sales to 1.36 months. IMF slashed its economic forecasts for 2003, good news is the new number = is still not terrible. For the world, IMF expects a 3.3% growth this = year, down from 3.7% originally forecast, and increasing further to 4.2% = next year. For the USA, IMF sees 2.4% growth, revised down from 2.6%, = and up further to 3.9% in 2004. And for Europe, IMF expects now to see = 1.3% this year, down sharply from original forecasts of 2.3%, but still = improving to 2.4% in 2004. US Trade Deficit for January came in slightly better than expected at = $41.12 billion vs $42.8 billion expected, and down from the record = $44.88 billion in December. Still, it was the second largest deficit on = record. Imports responded to slower consumer sales, falling 2.0% despite = the weaker dollar and in spite of a huge increase in the price of = imported crude. And that same weak dollar undoubtedly helped exports = increase 1.6%. The still expanding economy in China represents nearly = one fourth of this deficit. New claims for unemployment continued to signal a weak labor market, = altho dipping slightly to 420,000 from 435,000 and in line with = expectations of 419K. The 4 week moving average increased to 419,750 = from 410K, while the continuing claims rose to 3.5 million from 3.48 = million. I learned this week that this last number does not include = another 800K receiving extended benefits. And, of course, it does not = count the nearly 4 million more workers that have either simply given up = looking for work, or have exhausted their benefits. Both Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, managed to beat = expectations for February, at plus 0.1% and 75.6% vs expectations of a = minus 0.1% and 75.5%. Greatest damage was done by motor vehicle = production, down 2.2%, pulling down the durable goods sector by 1.4%. = Consumer goods were down 0.3%. Rising were consumer energy output (up = 1.1%) thanks to higher energy prices and a cold winter, information = processing, and defense/space equipment (up 4.6% for the past year!!). PPI for February was still ugly in the headlines, but tame underneath. = Overall, it rose another 1% thanks again to higher energy prices (up = 7.4%, biggest gain since Oct 1990 right before the first Gulf War = period), but the Core rate excluding food and energy was actually down = 0.5%. In January the rates were up 1.6% and up 0.9%. So the core, for = two months, is only up 0.4% (non inflationary). Expectations were for a = rise of 0.7% and core unchanged. Helping lower the core rate was a 0.6% = drop in car prices. Continuing the recent decline in evidence of consumer confidence, the = preliminary Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March missed = expectations of a decline to 77.6, instead falling to 75.0 and the = lowest in over ten years. It was at 79.9 in February. Current conditions = component fell to 87.1 from 95.4. Expectations index fell to 67.2 from = 69.9. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" While the Thursday rally managed to move both the DOW 30, S&P500, and = NASDAQ back into positive territory for the week (and Naz for the year), = it was not enough for a positive week for the NYSE Composite, nor for = the S&P400 Mid Cap or the S&P600 Small Cap. Only the Russell 2000 = managed to eke out a small gain for the little guys. And in another = commentary on the state of the economy, the DJ Trans (more airlines on = the verge of bankruptcy, higher cost of fuel), DJ Utilities (increase in = cost of fuel that cannot immediately be passed on in rate hikes), and = NYSE Financials all closed the week with a loss. Brokerage firms look = particularly weak in the Financials group as two already warned (Schwab, = Ameritrade) of lower revenues due the low volume, which was pretty = predictable. And the wirehouses continue to fail to develop any = measurable business from M&A, IPOs, or even new bond deals, much less = volume trading, so expect weak results there as well. It's safe to say = that the rally, which at least survived Friday, was concentrated in the = largest, most liquid stocks of greatest interest to institutionals = needing to park some cash for the next two weeks. I suspect most did not = want to commit this early, possibly only days away from the start of war = with Iraq, but had little choice with quarter end approaching, oversold = conditions, and an apparent rally starting. Meanwhile, both gold and US = Treasuries continued to sell off, and the US dollar strengthened, all = bullish signals for the stock markets short term. Political posturing, = and uncertainty, regarding Iraq continue on Sunday as US, UK, and Spain = do a mini-summit in the Azores. Best guess right now? US/UK withdraws = their resolution, no vote, and mutual action within days against Iraq. = The Feds meet Tuesday, and are generally expected to cut rates at least = once or twice this year, so timing would favor a "surprise" rate cut = next Tuesday, or a pre-arranged "between meetings" cut, once war = actually commences. These two events (initiation of war with Iraq, rate = cut) could also put a "relief rally" into anyone's definition of the = timeline for a FT day. The question will be just how durable a = continuation of the rally may prove to be. Be careful, if we do get a FT = day, consider only partial investments, as I still do not see that many = decent CANSLIM stocks shaping up for a proper breakout. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- JAPAN This past week saw the NIKKEI slip further, closing under 7,900 at one = point, although it rallied Friday to close just over the psychologically = important 8,000 at 8,002. The US Dollar strengthened, helping Japanese = exporters, and the NIKKEI may be able to sustain this level for another = two weeks to the closing of the financial year. But even at this level, = a 20 year low, more banks are likely to find their investment portfolios = further impaired, while the economy continues in deflation, and = non-performing loans only grow worse. Already insurance companies, that = pay pensions to elderly and retired Japanese, are struggling to maintain = these payments on a diminished portfolio and income production (Germany = has the same problem). In two weeks, banks and other institutions will = be forced to "mark to market" their portfolios. Banks, as well, will be = forced to a further commitment of bad loan write-offs. The govt has = already urged banks to sharply reduce their portfolio sales in order to = relieve pressure on the market. But if they comply, some risk failing = the capital requirements to operate as an int'l bank, and may even fail = the more liberal Japanese standards.=20 - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend was stable to = growing slightly. ACGL - weak looking c&h, forming the handle now APOL - continuing its long term LLUR pattern (look at weekly, too = volatile on the daily charts) APPB - c&h (more visible on a weekly chart) DF - high handle DNEX - base on base EPIQ - c&h, own (many times including now) and in my VR Fund ELTE - c&h, low price & ADV, in my VR Fund GIL - B6, but may be trending down IGT - several month long trading range IMO - c&h on the daily chart, LLUR into a saucer on the weeklies MRR - LLUR MVL - one of the few successful b/o from a c&h, worth studying TTC - B4 YHOO - c&h, volume has not dried up much Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0116_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT=20 face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Wholesale inventories in January fell 0.2%, = biggest drops=20 were auto inventories down 0.8% and machinery down 1.0%. Expectations = were for a=20 rise of 0.3%. Concurrently, sales rose 1.0%, but mostly due to the 7.6% = increase=20 in petroleum sales. The good news is that the stock to sales inventory = slightly=20 declined to 1.21 months, meaning any pickup in real sales means = manufacturers=20 must respond with increased production. Keep that up, and maybe we might = even=20 see a few new jobs created and people hired.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In an interesting juxtaposition, overall = business=20 inventories rose in January, up 0.2% following the revised gain of 0.7% = in=20 December. Sales were also up by 1.2%, moving the stock to sales to 1.36=20 months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMF slashed its economic forecasts for 2003, = good news is=20 the new number is still not terrible. For the world, IMF expects a 3.3% = growth=20 this year, down from 3.7% originally forecast, and increasing further to = 4.2%=20 next year. For the USA, IMF sees 2.4% growth, revised down from 2.6%, = and up=20 further to 3.9% in 2004. And for Europe, IMF expects now to see 1.3% = this year,=20 down sharply from original forecasts of 2.3%, but still improving to = 2.4% in=20 2004.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>US Trade Deficit for January came in slightly = better than=20 expected at $41.12 billion vs $42.8 billion expected, and down from the = record=20 $44.88 billion in December. Still, it was the second largest deficit on = record.=20 Imports responded to slower consumer sales, falling 2.0% despite the = weaker=20 dollar and in spite of a huge increase in the price of imported crude. = And that=20 same weak dollar undoubtedly helped exports increase 1.6%. The still = expanding=20 economy in China represents nearly one fourth of this = deficit.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment continued to signal = a weak=20 labor market, altho dipping slightly to 420,000 from 435,000 and in line = with=20 expectations of 419K. The 4 week moving average increased to 419,750 = from 410K,=20 while the continuing claims rose to 3.5 million from 3.48 million. I = learned=20 this week that this last number does not include another 800K receiving = extended=20 benefits. And, of course, it does not count the nearly 4 million more = workers=20 that have either simply given up looking for work, or have exhausted = their=20 benefits.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both Industrial Production, and Capacity = Utilization,=20 managed to beat expectations for February, at plus 0.1% and 75.6% vs=20 expectations of a minus 0.1% and 75.5%. Greatest damage was done by = motor=20 vehicle production, down 2.2%, pulling down the durable goods sector by = 1.4%.=20 Consumer goods were down 0.3%. Rising were consumer energy output (up = 1.1%)=20 thanks to higher energy prices and a cold winter, information = processing, and=20 defense/space equipment (up 4.6% for the past year!!).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PPI for February was still ugly in the = headlines, but tame=20 underneath. Overall, it rose another 1% thanks again to higher energy = prices (up=20 7.4%, biggest gain since Oct 1990 right before the first Gulf War = period), but=20 the Core rate excluding food and energy was actually down 0.5%. In = January the=20 rates were up 1.6% and up 0.9%. So the core, for two months, is only up = 0.4%=20 (non inflationary). Expectations were for a rise of 0.7% and core = unchanged.=20 Helping lower the core rate was a 0.6% drop in car prices.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Continuing the recent decline in evidence of = consumer=20 confidence, the preliminary Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment = index for=20 March missed expectations of a decline to 77.6, instead falling to = 75.0 and=20 the lowest in over ten years. It was at 79.9 in February. Current = conditions=20 component fell to 87.1 from 95.4. Expectations index fell to 67.2 from = 69.9. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>While the Thursday rally managed to move both = the DOW 30,=20 S&P500, and NASDAQ back into positive territory for the week = (and Naz=20 for the year), it was not enough for a positive week for the NYSE = Composite, nor=20 for the S&P400 Mid Cap or the S&P600 Small Cap. Only the Russell = 2000=20 managed to eke out a small gain for the little guys. And in another = commentary=20 on the state of the economy, the DJ Trans (more airlines on the verge of = bankruptcy, higher cost of fuel), DJ Utilities (increase in cost of fuel = that=20 cannot immediately be passed on in rate hikes), and NYSE Financials all = closed=20 the week with a loss. Brokerage firms look particularly weak in the = Financials=20 group as two already warned (Schwab, Ameritrade) of lower revenues due = the low=20 volume, which was pretty predictable. And the wirehouses continue to = fail to=20 develop any measurable business from M&A, IPOs, or even new bond = deals, much=20 less volume trading, so expect weak results there as well. It's safe to = say that=20 the rally, which at least survived Friday, was concentrated in the = largest, most=20 liquid stocks of greatest interest to institutionals needing to park = some cash=20 for the next two weeks. I suspect most did not want to commit this = early,=20 possibly only days away from the start of war with Iraq, but had little = choice=20 with quarter end approaching, oversold conditions, and an apparent rally = starting. Meanwhile, both gold and US Treasuries continued to sell off, = and the=20 US dollar strengthened, all bullish signals for the stock markets = short=20 term. Political posturing, and uncertainty, regarding Iraq continue on = Sunday as=20 US, UK, and Spain do a mini-summit in the Azores. Best guess right now? = US/UK=20 withdraws their resolution, no vote, and mutual action within days = against Iraq.=20 The Feds meet Tuesday, and are generally expected to cut rates at least = once or=20 twice this year, so timing would favor a "surprise" rate cut next = Tuesday, or a=20 pre-arranged "between meetings" cut, once war actually = commences. These two=20 events (initiation of war with Iraq, rate cut) could also put a = "relief=20 rally" into anyone's definition of the timeline for a FT day. The = question will=20 be just how durable a continuation of the rally may prove to be. Be = careful, if=20 we do get a FT day, consider only partial investments, as I still do not = see=20 that many decent CANSLIM stocks shaping up for a proper = breakout.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> JAPAN</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This past week saw the NIKKEI slip further, = closing under=20 7,900 at one point, although it rallied Friday to close just over the=20 psychologically important 8,000 at 8,002. The US Dollar strengthened, = helping=20 Japanese exporters, and the NIKKEI may be able to sustain this level for = another=20 two weeks to the closing of the financial year. But even at this level, = a 20=20 year low, more banks are likely to find their investment portfolios = further=20 impaired, while the economy continues in deflation, and non-performing = loans=20 only grow worse. Already insurance companies, that pay pensions to = elderly and=20 retired Japanese, are struggling to maintain these payments on a = diminished=20 portfolio and income production (Germany has the same problem). In two = weeks,=20 banks and other institutions will be forced to "mark to market" their=20 portfolios. Banks, as well, will be forced to a further commitment of = bad loan=20 write-offs. The govt has already urged banks to sharply reduce their = portfolio=20 sales in order to relieve pressure on the market. But if they comply, = some risk=20 failing the capital requirements to operate as an int'l bank, and may = even fail=20 the more liberal Japanese standards.=20 <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST=20 WANNABES</STRONG></FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend was=20 stable to growing=20 slightly.</FONT></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></D= IV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ACGL - weak looking c&h, forming the handle=20 now</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - continuing its long term LLUR pattern = (look at=20 weekly, too volatile on the daily charts)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APPB - c&h (more visible on a weekly=20 chart)</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DF - high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DNEX - base on base</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EPIQ - c&h, own (many times including now) = and in my=20 VR Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - c&h, low price & ADV, in my VR=20 Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GIL - B6, but may be trending down</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IGT - several month long trading = range</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMO - c&h on the daily chart, LLUR into a = saucer on=20 the weeklies</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MRR - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MVL - one of the few successful b/o from a = c&h, worth=20 studying</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>TTC - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>YHOO - c&h, volume has not dried up = much</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:011401c2eb27$3d8dcbb0$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0116_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0-- - ------=_NextPart_000_0115_01C2EAFD.54BA0DA0 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <011401c2eb27$3d8dcbb0$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A mf8AzP8A/wAzAAAzMwAzZgAzmQAzzAAz/zMzADMzMzMzZjMzmTMzzDMz/2YzAGYzM2YzZmYzmWYz zGYz/5kzAJkzM5kzZpkzmZkzzJkz/8wzAMwzM8wzZswzmcwzzMwz//8zAP8zM/8zZv8zmf8zzP8z /wBmAABmMwBmZgBmmQBmzABm/zNmADNmMzNmZjNmmTNmzDNm/2ZmAGZmM2ZmZmZmmWZmzGZm/5lm AJlmM5lmZplmmZlmzJlm/8xmAMxmM8xmZsxmmcxmzMxm//9mAP9mM/9mZv9mmf9mzP9m/wCZAACZ MwCZZgCZmQCZzACZ/zOZADOZMzOZZjOZmTOZzDOZ/2aZAGaZM2aZZmaZmWaZzGaZ/5mZAJmZM5mZ ZpmZmZmZzJmZ/8yZAMyZM8yZZsyZmcyZzMyZ//+ZAP+ZM/+ZZv+Zmf+ZzP+Z/wDMAADMMwDMZgDM 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