Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "NANCY POLCARO" <ZILLAGIRL@msn.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 15 Mar 2003 11:53:17 -0800
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview - MVL "NANCY POLCARO"
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- ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C2EAE9.77EA0460 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Tom-I really like MVL-I would have like to have found it in July when it = crossed above all its moving averages. Can I ask how long you have been = following it and how you found it?? Thanks zilla - ----- Original Message ----- From: Tom Worley Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 11:18 AM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview ECONOMICS Wholesale inventories in January fell 0.2%, biggest drops were auto inven= tories down 0.8% and machinery down 1.0%. Expectations were for a rise of= 0.3%. Concurrently, sales rose 1.0%, but mostly due to the 7.6% increase= in petroleum sales. The good news is that the stock to sales inventory s= lightly declined to 1.21 months, meaning any pickup in real sales means m= anufacturers must respond with increased production. Keep that up, and ma= ybe we might even see a few new jobs created and people hired. In an interesting juxtaposition, overall business inventories rose in Jan= uary, up 0.2% following the revised gain of 0.7% in December. Sales were = also up by 1.2%, moving the stock to sales to 1.36 months. IMF slashed its economic forecasts for 2003, good news is the new number = is still not terrible. For the world, IMF expects a 3.3% growth this year= , down from 3.7% originally forecast, and increasing further to 4.2% next= year. For the USA, IMF sees 2.4% growth, revised down from 2.6%, and up = further to 3.9% in 2004. And for Europe, IMF expects now to see 1.3% this= year, down sharply from original forecasts of 2.3%, but still improving = to 2.4% in 2004. US Trade Deficit for January came in slightly better than expected at $41= .12 billion vs $42.8 billion expected, and down from the record $44.88 bi= llion in December. Still, it was the second largest deficit on record. Im= ports responded to slower consumer sales, falling 2.0% despite the weaker= dollar and in spite of a huge increase in the price of imported crude. A= nd that same weak dollar undoubtedly helped exports increase 1.6%. The st= ill expanding economy in China represents nearly one fourth of this defic= it. New claims for unemployment continued to signal a weak labor market, alth= o dipping slightly to 420,000 from 435,000 and in line with expectations = of 419K. The 4 week moving average increased to 419,750 from 410K, while = the continuing claims rose to 3.5 million from 3.48 million. I learned th= is week that this last number does not include another 800K receiving ext= ended benefits. And, of course, it does not count the nearly 4 million mo= re workers that have either simply given up looking for work, or have exh= austed their benefits. Both Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, managed to beat exp= ectations for February, at plus 0.1% and 75.6% vs expectations of a minus= 0.1% and 75.5%. Greatest damage was done by motor vehicle production, do= wn 2.2%, pulling down the durable goods sector by 1.4%. Consumer goods we= re down 0.3%. Rising were consumer energy output (up 1.1%) thanks to high= er energy prices and a cold winter, information processing, and defense/s= pace equipment (up 4.6% for the past year!!). PPI for February was still ugly in the headlines, but tame underneath. Ov= erall, it rose another 1% thanks again to higher energy prices (up 7.4%, = biggest gain since Oct 1990 right before the first Gulf War period), but = the Core rate excluding food and energy was actually down 0.5%. In Januar= y the rates were up 1.6% and up 0.9%. So the core, for two months, is onl= y up 0.4% (non inflationary). Expectations were for a rise of 0.7% and co= re unchanged. Helping lower the core rate was a 0.6% drop in car prices. Continuing the recent decline in evidence of consumer confidence, the pre= liminary Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment index for March missed expe= ctations of a decline to 77.6, instead falling to 75.0 and the lowest in = over ten years. It was at 79.9 in February. Current conditions component = fell to 87.1 from 95.4. Expectations index fell to 67.2 from 69.9. =20 "M" While the Thursday rally managed to move both the DOW 30, S&P500, and NAS= DAQ back into positive territory for the week (and Naz for the year), it = was not enough for a positive week for the NYSE Composite, nor for the S&= P400 Mid Cap or the S&P600 Small Cap. Only the Russell 2000 managed to ek= e out a small gain for the little guys. And in another commentary on the = state of the economy, the DJ Trans (more airlines on the verge of bankrup= tcy, higher cost of fuel), DJ Utilities (increase in cost of fuel that ca= nnot immediately be passed on in rate hikes), and NYSE Financials all clo= sed the week with a loss. Brokerage firms look particularly weak in the F= inancials group as two already warned (Schwab, Ameritrade) of lower reven= ues due the low volume, which was pretty predictable. And the wirehouses = continue to fail to develop any measurable business from M&A, IPOs, or ev= en new bond deals, much less volume trading, so expect weak results there= as well. It's safe to say that the rally, which at least survived Friday= , was concentrated in the largest, most liquid stocks of greatest interes= t to institutionals needing to park some cash for the next two weeks. I s= uspect most did not want to commit this early, possibly only days away fr= om the start of war with Iraq, but had little choice with quarter end app= roaching, oversold conditions, and an apparent rally starting. Meanwhile,= both gold and US Treasuries continued to sell off, and the US dollar str= engthened, all bullish signals for the stock markets short term. Politica= l posturing, and uncertainty, regarding Iraq continue on Sunday as US, UK= , and Spain do a mini-summit in the Azores. Best guess right now? US/UK w= ithdraws their resolution, no vote, and mutual action within days against= Iraq. The Feds meet Tuesday, and are generally expected to cut rates at = least once or twice this year, so timing would favor a "surprise" rate cu= t next Tuesday, or a pre-arranged "between meetings" cut, once war actual= ly commences. These two events (initiation of war with Iraq, rate cut) co= uld also put a "relief rally" into anyone's definition of the timeline fo= r a FT day. The question will be just how durable a continuation of the r= ally may prove to be. Be careful, if we do get a FT day, consider only pa= rtial investments, as I still do not see that many decent CANSLIM stocks = shaping up for a proper breakout. JAPAN This past week saw the NIKKEI slip further, closing under 7,900 at one po= int, although it rallied Friday to close just over the psychologically im= portant 8,000 at 8,002. The US Dollar strengthened, helping Japanese expo= rters, and the NIKKEI may be able to sustain this level for another two w= eeks to the closing of the financial year. But even at this level, a 20 y= ear low, more banks are likely to find their investment portfolios furthe= r impaired, while the economy continues in deflation, and non-performing = loans only grow worse. Already insurance companies, that pay pensions to = elderly and retired Japanese, are struggling to maintain these payments o= n a diminished portfolio and income production (Germany has the same prob= lem). In two weeks, banks and other institutions will be forced to "mark = to market" their portfolios. Banks, as well, will be forced to a further = commitment of bad loan write-offs. The govt has already urged banks to sh= arply reduce their portfolio sales in order to relieve pressure on the ma= rket. But if they comply, some risk failing the capital requirements to o= perate as an int'l bank, and may even fail the more liberal Japanese stan= dards. =20 WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES =20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's "M= " and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with co= nstructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from (a= nd of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in Operations b= y a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is strictly my o= wn ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or opinions o= f my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and= try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout scena= rio. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, focusin= g on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all industry gro= ups and prices, even those I will not consider for my personal investing.= I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast for this year and n= ext due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no due diligence, that = is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c= &h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is t= he # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) even = though it is not exactly a CANSLIM pattern. Rarely are any of these stock= s of interest to me for my personal investing due size, price or industry= group. I will note any stocks in which I have a current personal financi= al interest, whether real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend was stable to growin= g slightly. ACGL - weak looking c&h, forming the handle now APOL - continuing its long term LLUR pattern (look at weekly, too volatil= e on the daily charts) APPB - c&h (more visible on a weekly chart) DF - high handle DNEX - base on base EPIQ - c&h, own (many times including now) and in my VR Fund ELTE - c&h, low price & ADV, in my VR Fund GIL - B6, but may be trending down IGT - several month long trading range IMO - c&h on the daily chart, LLUR into a saucer on the weeklies MRR - LLUR MVL - one of the few successful b/o from a c&h, worth studying TTC - B4 YHOO - c&h, volume has not dried up much Happy Hunting, Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C2EAE9.77EA0460 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <HTML><BODY STYLE=3D"font:10pt verdana; border:none;"><DIV>Tom-I really l= ike MVL-I would have like to have found it in July when it crossed a= bove all its moving averages. Can I ask how long you have been foll= owing it and how you found it?? Thanks zilla</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <BLO= CKQUOTE style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px;= BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: = 10pt Arial">----- Original Message -----</DIV> <DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: = #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt Arial; COLOR: black"><B>From:</B> Tom Worley</DIV> <D= IV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, March 15, 2003 11:18= AM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>To:</B> CANSLIM</DIV> <DIV s= tyle=3D"FONT: 10pt Arial"><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weev= iew</DIV> <DIV> </DIV> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3D= GENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT><FONT face=3DA= rial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Whol= esale inventories in January fell 0.2%, biggest drops were auto inventori= es down 0.8% and machinery down 1.0%. Expectations were for a rise of 0.3= %. Concurrently, sales rose 1.0%, but mostly due to the 7.6% increase in = petroleum sales. The good news is that the stock to sales inventory sligh= tly declined to 1.21 months, meaning any pickup in real sales means manuf= acturers must respond with increased production. Keep that up, and maybe = we might even see a few new jobs created and people hired.</FONT></DIV> <= DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In an = interesting juxtaposition, overall business inventories rose in January, = up 0.2% following the revised gain of 0.7% in December. Sales were also u= p by 1.2%, moving the stock to sales to 1.36 months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><F= ONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMF slashed = its economic forecasts for 2003, good news is the new number is still not= terrible. For the world, IMF expects a 3.3% growth this year, down from = 3.7% originally forecast, and increasing further to 4.2% next year. For t= he USA, IMF sees 2.4% growth, revised down from 2.6%, and up further to 3= .9% in 2004. And for Europe, IMF expects now to see 1.3% this year, down = sharply from original forecasts of 2.3%, but still improving to 2.4% in 2= 004.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT = face=3DArial>US Trade Deficit for January came in slightly better than ex= pected at $41.12 billion vs $42.8 billion expected, and down from the rec= ord $44.88 billion in December. Still, it was the second largest deficit = on record. Imports responded to slower consumer sales, falling 2.0% despi= te the weaker dollar and in spite of a huge increase in the price of impo= rted crude. And that same weak dollar undoubtedly helped exports increase= 1.6%. The still expanding economy in China represents nearly one fourth = of this deficit.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>= <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment continued to signal = a weak labor market, altho dipping slightly to 420,000 from 435,000 and i= n line with expectations of 419K. The 4 week moving average increased to = 419,750 from 410K, while the continuing claims rose to 3.5 million from 3= .48 million. I learned this week that this last number does not include a= nother 800K receiving extended benefits. And, of course, it does not coun= t the nearly 4 million more workers that have either simply given up look= ing for work, or have exhausted their benefits.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT f= ace=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Both Industrial P= roduction, and Capacity Utilization, managed to beat expectations for Feb= ruary, at plus 0.1% and 75.6% vs expectations of a minus 0.1% and 75.5%. = Greatest damage was done by motor vehicle production, down 2.2%, pulling = down the durable goods sector by 1.4%. Consumer goods were down 0.3%. Ris= ing were consumer energy output (up 1.1%) thanks to higher energy prices = and a cold winter, information processing, and defense/space equipment (u= p 4.6% for the past year!!).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>= </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PPI for February was still ugly in t= he headlines, but tame underneath. Overall, it rose another 1% thanks aga= in to higher energy prices (up 7.4%, biggest gain since Oct 1990 right be= fore the first Gulf War period), but the Core rate excluding food and ene= rgy was actually down 0.5%. In January the rates were up 1.6% and up 0.9%= . So the core, for two months, is only up 0.4% (non inflationary). Expect= ations were for a rise of 0.7% and core unchanged. Helping lower the core= rate was a 0.6% drop in car prices.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial= ></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Continuing the recent declin= e in evidence of consumer confidence, the preliminary Univ. of Michigan c= onsumer sentiment index for March missed expectations of a decl= ine to 77.6, instead falling to 75.0 and the lowest in over ten years. It= was at 79.9 in February. Current conditions component fell to 87.1 from = 95.4. Expectations index fell to 67.2 from 69.9. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV= ><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DA= rial>While the Thursday rally managed to move both the DOW 30, S&P500= , and NASDAQ back into positive territory for the week (and Naz for = the year), it was not enough for a positive week for the NYSE Composite, = nor for the S&P400 Mid Cap or the S&P600 Small Cap. Only the Russ= ell 2000 managed to eke out a small gain for the little guys. And in anot= her commentary on the state of the economy, the DJ Trans (more airlines o= n the verge of bankruptcy, higher cost of fuel), DJ Utilities (increase i= n cost of fuel that cannot immediately be passed on in rate hikes), and N= YSE Financials all closed the week with a loss. Brokerage firms look part= icularly weak in the Financials group as two already warned (Schwab, Amer= itrade) of lower revenues due the low volume, which was pretty predictabl= e. And the wirehouses continue to fail to develop any measurable business= from M&A, IPOs, or even new bond deals, much less volume trading, so= expect weak results there as well. It's safe to say that the rally, whic= h at least survived Friday, was concentrated in the largest, most liquid = stocks of greatest interest to institutionals needing to park some cash f= or the next two weeks. I suspect most did not want to commit this early, = possibly only days away from the start of war with Iraq, but had little c= hoice with quarter end approaching, oversold conditions, and an apparent = rally starting. Meanwhile, both gold and US Treasuries continued to sell = off, and the US dollar strengthened, all bullish signals for the sto= ck markets short term. Political posturing, and uncertainty, regarding Ir= aq continue on Sunday as US, UK, and Spain do a mini-summit in the Azores= . Best guess right now? US/UK withdraws their resolution, no vote, and mu= tual action within days against Iraq. The Feds meet Tuesday, and are gene= rally expected to cut rates at least once or twice this year, so timing w= ould favor a "surprise" rate cut next Tuesday, or a pre-arranged "between= meetings" cut, once war actually commences. These two events (initi= ation of war with Iraq, rate cut) could also put a "relief rally" in= to anyone's definition of the timeline for a FT day. The question will be= just how durable a continuation of the rally may prove to be. Be careful= , if we do get a FT day, consider only partial investments, as I still do= not see that many decent CANSLIM stocks shaping up for a proper breakout= .</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG> <HR> JAPAN</STRONG></FONT= ></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This past week saw the NIKKEI slip furthe= r, closing under 7,900 at one point, although it rallied Friday to close = just over the psychologically important 8,000 at 8,002. The US Dollar str= engthened, helping Japanese exporters, and the NIKKEI may be able to sust= ain this level for another two weeks to the closing of the financial year= . But even at this level, a 20 year low, more banks are likely to find th= eir investment portfolios further impaired, while the economy continues i= n deflation, and non-performing loans only grow worse. Already insurance = companies, that pay pensions to elderly and retired Japanese, are struggl= ing to maintain these payments on a diminished portfolio and income produ= ction (Germany has the same problem). In two weeks, banks and other insti= tutions will be forced to "mark to market" their portfolios. Banks, as we= ll, will be forced to a further commitment of bad loan write-offs. The go= vt has already urged banks to sharply reduce their portfolio sales in ord= er to relieve pressure on the market. But if they comply, some risk faili= ng the capital requirements to operate as an int'l bank, and may even fai= l the more liberal Japanese standards. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT fac= e=3DArial><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES</STRONG>= </FONT><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <D= IV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DI= V><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any sto= cks to the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the h= ealth of CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identif= y some stocks with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG>= <FONT color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I= am employed in Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything pres= ented by me is strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to ref= lect the views or opinions of my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></D= IV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I= typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, and = try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout scenar= io. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria= , focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all ind= ustry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my personal i= nvesting. I no longer will actively consider earnings fore= cast for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FON= T color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your responsibility</FON= T>. I will note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or t= riple) bottoms, or flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, I= MO). I will also note LLUR (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not= exactly a CANSLIM pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to= me for my personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will n= ote any stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whe= ther real money or virtual reality (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DA= rial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks= I am reviewing this weekend was stable to growing slightly.</FONT></DIV>= </DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><= /DIV></DIV></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV= ><FONT face=3DArial>ACGL - weak looking c&h, forming the handle now</= FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APOL - continuing its long term LLUR = pattern (look at weekly, too volatile on the daily charts)</FONT></DIV> <= DIV><FONT face=3DArial>APPB - c&h (more visible on a weekly chart)</F= ONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DF - high handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FO= NT face=3DArial>DNEX - base on base</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>= EPIQ - c&h, own (many times including now) and in my VR Fund</FONT></= DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - c&h, low price & ADV, in my V= R Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GIL - B6, but may be trending= down</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IGT - several month long tradi= ng range</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMO - c&h on the daily = chart, LLUR into a saucer on the weeklies</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D= Arial>MRR - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>MVL - one of the fe= w successful b/o from a c&h, worth studying</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT f= ace=3DArial>TTC - B4</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>YHOO - c&h,= volume has not dried up much</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT= > </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Happy Hunting,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><F= ONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG height=3D32 alt=3D"" hspac= e=3D0 src=3D"cid:011401c2eb27$3d8dcbb0$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX" width=3D28 align= =3Dbaseline border=3D0></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FON= T><A href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT face=3DArial>stkguru@bel= lsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: TexWorley</FONT></DIV></= BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C2EAE9.77EA0460-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". 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