Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Ian <ianstm@shaw.ca>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] more breakouts
Date: Mon, 24 Mar 2003 09:48:16 -0800
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Hi Mike: It is interesting to me that there is not really strong evidence of disproportionate short-covering in your breakout list. (My own watch lists all had huge gainers in heavily shorted positions on Friday). Here is the data for the stocks on your list (from Feb 10 NYSE Short Interest): Symbol Shares Short % of Float Days to Cover - ------------ --------------------- ------------ ---------- - ------- KWD 974,000 4.2 6.81 VIP 1,030,000 3.2 4.47 ABV 1,160,000 0.4 3.57 ACTI 392,000 1.0 3.47 ALTR 12,500,000 3.3 1.36 CYBX 841,000 4.2 5.13 IBM 25,600,000 1.5 2.94 ITU 539,000 0.3 4.95 JEC 1,980,000 4.2 6.45 LLTC 11,000,000 3.5 1.66 POWI 3,030,000 10.8 3.61 RCII 2,090,000 13.9 3.16 SBUX 13,800,000 3.7 3.07 SRCL 4,420,000 15.4 10.35 SRNA 3,750,000 17.2 9.14 DRTE 868,000 2.4 5.71 FLR 1,990,000 2.6 5.19 SNDK 10,800,000 16.5 3.05 TNOX 801,000 3.7 5.24 POWI, RCII, SRCL, SRNA and SNDK are the only ones with exceptionally high short positions as a % of their float. KWD, JEC, SRCL and SRNA have the highest short ratio. So on balance, SRCL and SRNA are really the only two that I would question as to whether or not the buying is being driven by short-covering. (Which isn't necessarily a bad thing, except when it appears to be the primary driving force of the broad market, IMHO.) We never did get to properly test the 40-week EMA on the OEX today. I still look at that level as the strongest test for the broad market, as it has been a hard ceiling since the beginning of this bear. Cheers, Ian PS - I cannot help but thinking that you guys are really on to something as a list of longs when the breakouts suceed on sustained higher volume, and great shorts when the breakouts fail and the charts are very sloppy. - ----- Original Message ----- From: Mike Gibbons <mike@proactech.com> To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Friday, March 21, 2003 3:12 PM Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] more breakouts > Ian, > > We do not normally release our breakout alerts as they are proprietary, as > Mike Niemotka has already explained. However, in view of your posing the > possibility that an unusually high number of breakouts today are a result of > short covering, I'll post the list of alerts issued today and their status > at market close. I would be very interested to hear what the verdict is on > short covering. > > Symbol BoP Close BoV Volume Status > ------ --- ----- --- ------ ------ > KWD 29.60 29.73 275337 293600 Breakout Sustained > VIP 38.79 39.38 387123 337900 Insufficient volume > ABV 16.48 16.58 586101 602700 Breakout Sustained > ACTI 9.61 9.40 426648 673002 Failed on price > ALTR 15.15 15.20 12922464 15548002 Breakout Sustained > CYBX 20.00 19.97 261645 271400 Failed on price > IBM 83.50 84.90 12962175 12525300 Insufficient volume > ITU 25.90 27.13 152772 104600 Insufficient volume > JEC 42.44 41.97 511167 844700 Failed on price > LLTC 34.87 34.91 10076322 8493255 Insufficient volume > POWI 23.48 23.86 1156207 1187187 Breakout Sustained > RCII 54.60 56.60 819613 476944 Insufficient volume > SBUX 25.75 26.35 6397516 6129293 Insufficient volume > SRCL 38.79 39.42 629319 622635 Insufficient volume > SRNA 16.00 16.35 675135 1066951 Breakout Sustained > DRTE 10.13 9.67 255486 133140 Failed on price Insufficient > volume > FLR 34.25 34.99 729579 847000 Breakout Sustained > SNDK 20.85 20.47 4619439 3520486 Failed on price Insufficient > volume > TNOX 11.60 11.16 207510 455745 Failed on price > > Please note that these are stocks breaking out from a CwH pattern, not > breakouts from any other kind of base. > > Aloha, > > Mike Gibbons > Proactive Technologies, LLC > http://www.proactech.com > > > -----Original Message----- > From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com > [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Ian > Sent: Friday, March 21, 2003 12:21 PM > To: canslim@lists.xmission.com > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] more breakouts > > > Hi Mike: > > May I ask if all 8 of them were heavily shorted issues? The reason I ask is > that I'm still seeing most of the action in the stocks with the largest > short positions. I'm not sure what CANSLIM has to say about it, but my gut > tells me that it implies extra caution. Is it permitted to share todays > 'breakouts' with this list, or is that proprietary information? > > > Also, since the initial market breakdown in September 2000, the 40-week ema > of the OEX has provided a ceiling for every single bear-market rally. > (http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/intchart/frames/main.asp?time=10&freq=2&co > mpidx=aaaaa%3A0&comp=&ma=6&maval=13%2C40%2C200&uf=8&lf=268435456&lf2=4&lf3=8 > &type=2&style=320&size=4&sid=0&o_symb=&startdate=&enddate=&show=true&symb=oe > x&draw.x=54&draw.y=14) > > As we stand now with the OEX at 456, that ceiling is a meagre 5 points away > right now. I would argue for close market scurtiny at that level. > > > Cheers, > > Ian > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > Sent: Friday, March 21, 2003 7:16 AM > Subject: [CANSLIM] more breakouts > > > > All, > > > > For anyone who is using the cwhcharts.com site, today there are already 8 > > breakout alerts! Does this mean that M is finally taking off? I have > > noticed though that none of the recent ones are from the WON lists, and am > > wondering if that should be a reason for caution. > > > > Katherine, any comments? > > > > Thanks > > > > Mike > > > > Mike Niemotka , PE > > Sr. Principal Engineer > > Baxter Healthcare Corporation > > Route 120 & Wilson Road > > Round Lake, IL 60073 > > Tel (847) 270-4075 > > Fax (847) 270-4525 > > michael_niemotka@baxter.com > > > > > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
Next Article (by Subject): Re: [CANSLIM] Why Not Use WallStreetCity for Industry Groups - smaller version "Randy Harmelink"
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