Re: [CANSLIM] buying after a missed breakout

From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] buying after a missed breakout
Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2003 08:34:48 -0600
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"......learn when to walk away, know when to run......."   Sorry, I could
not help myself! :)


Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com


                                                                                                                            
                    "Tom Worley"                                                                                            
                    <stkguru@bellsouth.net        To:     canslim@lists.xmission.com                                        
                    >                             cc:                                                                       
                    Sent by:                      Subject:     Re: [CANSLIM] buying after a missed breakout                 
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm                                                                                  
                    ission.com                                                                                              
                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                            
                    03/25/2003 04:44 PM                                                                                     
                    Please respond to                                                                                       
                    canslim                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                            




from my training and reading, the "sell on 20% gain" rule is only intended
to teach newcomers to CANSLIM how to have the discipline to take profits
(and not get greedy) as well as to build up a positive result to offset the
ones that are guaranteed to bite you.

once you have learned how to take profits, and become better at the rest of
the actual "sell" rules, then the goal is to be able to start identifying
the ones that are destined, over time, to rise multi-hundred percent, and
learn how to hold them, and when to fold them

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 25, 2003 5:23 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] buying after a missed breakout



Tom and Ed,

I appreciate the advice and comments.  I guess when you see some of the
write ups in IBD or other places, the huge run ups of a Yahoo, or Cisco,
etc, the multiple bases that form along the way sometimes get lost.

Does anyone know of studies that WON, or someone else did, relative to the
"average" amount a stock will move up before re-basing?  I know WON talks
of talking some profits when a stock gains 20% from breakout, but if you
sell out here, assuming no sell signals, do you risk missing out on 100%
gains, etc?

It sure does seem that some of the biggest winners of the past just blasted
off from pivot point, and did not look back until a double, triple or more
bagger.

And Ed, I know what you mean about there always being another train coming
down the tracks. On ANY day, you can go to Yahoo and list the top gainers,
and there are stocks picking up 20% or more in a day.

Thanks

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    "Tom Worley"
                    <stkguru@bellsouth.net        To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    >                             cc:
                    Sent by:                      Subject:     Re:
[CANSLIM]
buying after a missed breakout
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm
                    ission.com


                    03/25/2003 03:27 PM
                    Please respond to
                    canslim






Hi Michael,

The key is that you must be able to look at the stock as if you never heard
of it before. If you can't get that "missed pivot / breakout" out of your
head, then you are better off never looking at it again, as it will corrupt
your thinking. If you can overcome this, then certainly it may present
future valid pivot points and entry prices, even tho higher than that lost
opportunity.

The best stocks will go on for gains of 100% or more, so missing out on the
first 30% or wherever it again forms a valid CANSLIM basing pattern only
means that you missed a small part of the ride.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 25, 2003 3:20 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] buying after a missed breakout


In the last few days, we have seen a number of stocks breaking out of good
bases. Only time will tell if they hold, but I was wondering what people's
thoughts were in regards to buying the stocks later, if they missed the
breakout.

We all know that WON says not to chase a stock anymore than 5% above the
pivot point, but assuming that a stock that you missed is going to be a 30%
or greater winner, are there other valid entry points?  I am not talking
about getting in if the stock pulls back to the pivot soon after the
breakout on light volume, which I know is a possible second chance, I am
more interested in if people have entry points after a stock has gained
over 5%, and does not drop any lower than that.

Is it an all or nothing game on the breakouts, ie if you don't grab one
within 5% of the pivot, then you eliminate it from your watchlist. or do
you wait for temporary consolidation after it has gained 10% or more, in
hopes that it continues to power up?

Thanks

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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