Re: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books

From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books
Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2003 21:49:07 -0700
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Thanks for the link.  I'm bothered by his second graphic (New definition of
Follow Through).  He's starting to count on a day that closed lower (looks
like 09/21/2001).  That can't be right, can it?

 Rolf



> Hi All,
>
> Here's a summary explanation of WON's guidelines for both the "old" and
the
> "new" definition of a FTD:
>
> http://www.market-tester.com/newft.htm
>
> My read on WON's guidelines is that 1%+ would be fine if it were
accompanied
> by a slew of breakouts. 2% is useful, but even it doesn't hold water
without
> a slew of stocks at least *setting up* for breakout.
>
> In either case, it only makes sense that the "market" is a summary
indicator
> of its individual components. If the majority of individual
CANSLIM-quality
> stocks are acting well, then our "market" is healthy. If the individual
> CANSLIM-quality stocks are not acting well, it's a mine field. As Ed said,
> grounds for stepping lightly.
>
> Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Katona
> Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 10:40 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books
>
>
> Rolf,
> That was the page I was looking for!
>
> From page 78 of WON's 24 lessons book, In bold letters:
> "You only start counting a rally if the close is up from the prior day."
> In this case, Wednesday March 12 did close higher than Tuesday.
>
> Also on page 78:
> ""Follow-through" day. Index up 1% or more on increased volume from the
day
> before. Market is in new uptrend. Usually occurs fourth through seventh
day
> of an attempted rally."
>
> (Since 24 lessons was published WON did change the "Index up 1% or more on
> increased volume from the day before" to 2% or more.)
>
> Also see HTMMIS third edition pages 64 and 65 on rally attempt, 2%
reasoning
> and follow-through day. Interesting, WON says that a follow-through could
> even occur on the third day of a rally attempt if certain conditions
exist.
> Tim
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Rolf Hertenstein
> Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 8:16 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
>
>
> I've been following the example from 24 Lessons, pg. 78.  The first day of
> an attempted rally is a day in which an index closes up sans volume
> considerations.  A FTD day usually occurs on day 4 to 7 (higher volume, 2%
> increase).  From Tim's comments, IBD is following that criteria.
>
> I guess an 'attempted' rally becomes a 'confirmed' rally if a FTD occurs
on
> days 4 thru 7 (and as late as 10).  I try to qualify 'attempts' based on
the
> action of the first day;  we've had at least a couple of weak attempts
(that
> failed) lately.
>
>  Rolf
>
>
> > I think so, but welcome other opinions on this.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 10:20 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> >
> >
> > Thanks, Tom.  For my edification, do you think your count is in
accordance
> > with WON?
> >
> >  Rolf
> >
> > > I start my count with yesterday, because of the combination of price
> gain
> > > and volume. On Wednesday, volume improved, but only sufficient to turn
a
> > > down day into a moderate loss. Historically, maybe Wednesday will
prove
> to
> > > be a reversal day that marked a second bottom. But by itself I don't
use
> > it
> > > as a starting point for counting. Thursday, on the other hand, can
stand
> > on
> > > its own merits.
> > >
> > > It also does not hurt that every major index participated Thursday,
> while
> > > only most were benefiting on Wednesday
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 8:35 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> > >
> > >
> > > Does anyone count yesterday other than day 2, and if so, what and why?
> > >
> > >  Rolf
> > >
> > > > strictly market days, Mike
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Mike" <PatternDT@SoftHome.net>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 12:41 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Certainly was a fine rally, the shorts are writhing in fear.  I
> wouldn't
> > > be
> > > > disappointed to see a retest soon, how that goes will be more
telling.
> > > >
> > > > How are you counting the 4-7 days, market days or including
weekends?
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Mike
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >  >>
> > > > OK, we got a good rally today, whether it was just a relief rally,
or
> > > short
> > > > covering, or maybe even a real rally, with real sidelined cash
flowing
> > > back
> > > > in.
> > > >
> > > > Mutual funds only have two weeks to invest any cash in excess of
their
> > > > limits, and may have contributed. A delay in a vote at the UN is
being
> > > > credited, so just may be news driven, here today, gone tomorrow.
> > > >
> > > > Nonetheless, we certainly got a 2+% gain on every index, and on
volume
> > > well
> > > > exceeding daily average. And that comes in a period when daily
volume
> > has
> > > > been typically well under average.
> > > >
> > > > So, is anybody starting to count the days, looking for the follow
thru
> > day
> > > > 4-7 days out? Coincidentally, that period might also fall just after
> war
> > > > with Iraq is unilaterally initiated by the USA, which would cause at
> > least
> > > > some minor relief rally.
> > > >
> > > > Does anyone trust today's gains? With so much news, can we trust
> > > technicals?
> > > >
> > > > Tom Worley
> > > > stkguru@bellsouth.net
> > > > AIM: TexWorley
> > > > <<
> > > >
> > > >
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