RE: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books
Date: Sat, 29 Mar 2003 11:32:13 -0600
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Hi Rolf,

For the definitive answer to your question, I contacted the MarketTester
author, Bill Lee (www.market-tester.com). Here is his response:

Hi Katherine --

Rolf is correct - the rally should begin on the first up day after the
market bottoms out.  I've changed the Website explanation (the arrow on the
graph now points to the first up-day as the first day of the rally).  I've
also changed the Tester itself - in effect, shifting the acceptable rally
window one day forward.  Note - this only affects the new follow through
definition, with the new rally definition.

For those using the Tester, let me know and I'll provide an updated version
with this fix.  Thanks to you both for pointing this out.

Bill



- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Rolf Hertenstein
Sent: Wednesday, March 26, 2003 10:49 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books


Thanks for the link.  I'm bothered by his second graphic (New definition of
Follow Through).  He's starting to count on a day that closed lower (looks
like 09/21/2001).  That can't be right, can it?

 Rolf



> Hi All,
>
> Here's a summary explanation of WON's guidelines for both the "old" and
the
> "new" definition of a FTD:
>
> http://www.market-tester.com/newft.htm
>
> My read on WON's guidelines is that 1%+ would be fine if it were
accompanied
> by a slew of breakouts. 2% is useful, but even it doesn't hold water
without
> a slew of stocks at least *setting up* for breakout.
>
> In either case, it only makes sense that the "market" is a summary
indicator
> of its individual components. If the majority of individual
CANSLIM-quality
> stocks are acting well, then our "market" is healthy. If the individual
> CANSLIM-quality stocks are not acting well, it's a mine field. As Ed said,
> grounds for stepping lightly.
>
> Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tim Katona
> Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 10:40 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] "M" with references to WON books
>
>
> Rolf,
> That was the page I was looking for!
>
> From page 78 of WON's 24 lessons book, In bold letters:
> "You only start counting a rally if the close is up from the prior day."
> In this case, Wednesday March 12 did close higher than Tuesday.
>
> Also on page 78:
> ""Follow-through" day. Index up 1% or more on increased volume from the
day
> before. Market is in new uptrend. Usually occurs fourth through seventh
day
> of an attempted rally."
>
> (Since 24 lessons was published WON did change the "Index up 1% or more on
> increased volume from the day before" to 2% or more.)
>
> Also see HTMMIS third edition pages 64 and 65 on rally attempt, 2%
reasoning
> and follow-through day. Interesting, WON says that a follow-through could
> even occur on the third day of a rally attempt if certain conditions
exist.
> Tim
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Rolf Hertenstein
> Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 8:16 AM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
>
>
> I've been following the example from 24 Lessons, pg. 78.  The first day of
> an attempted rally is a day in which an index closes up sans volume
> considerations.  A FTD day usually occurs on day 4 to 7 (higher volume, 2%
> increase).  From Tim's comments, IBD is following that criteria.
>
> I guess an 'attempted' rally becomes a 'confirmed' rally if a FTD occurs
on
> days 4 thru 7 (and as late as 10).  I try to qualify 'attempts' based on
the
> action of the first day;  we've had at least a couple of weak attempts
(that
> failed) lately.
>
>  Rolf
>
>
> > I think so, but welcome other opinions on this.
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 10:20 AM
> > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> >
> >
> > Thanks, Tom.  For my edification, do you think your count is in
accordance
> > with WON?
> >
> >  Rolf
> >
> > > I start my count with yesterday, because of the combination of price
> gain
> > > and volume. On Wednesday, volume improved, but only sufficient to turn
a
> > > down day into a moderate loss. Historically, maybe Wednesday will
prove
> to
> > > be a reversal day that marked a second bottom. But by itself I don't
use
> > it
> > > as a starting point for counting. Thursday, on the other hand, can
stand
> > on
> > > its own merits.
> > >
> > > It also does not hurt that every major index participated Thursday,
> while
> > > only most were benefiting on Wednesday
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
> > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 8:35 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> > >
> > >
> > > Does anyone count yesterday other than day 2, and if so, what and why?
> > >
> > >  Rolf
> > >
> > > > strictly market days, Mike
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Mike" <PatternDT@SoftHome.net>
> > > > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > > > Sent: Friday, March 14, 2003 12:41 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] "M"
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > Certainly was a fine rally, the shorts are writhing in fear.  I
> wouldn't
> > > be
> > > > disappointed to see a retest soon, how that goes will be more
telling.
> > > >
> > > > How are you counting the 4-7 days, market days or including
weekends?
> > > > Thanks,
> > > > Mike
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >  >>
> > > > OK, we got a good rally today, whether it was just a relief rally,
or
> > > short
> > > > covering, or maybe even a real rally, with real sidelined cash
flowing
> > > back
> > > > in.
> > > >
> > > > Mutual funds only have two weeks to invest any cash in excess of
their
> > > > limits, and may have contributed. A delay in a vote at the UN is
being
> > > > credited, so just may be news driven, here today, gone tomorrow.
> > > >
> > > > Nonetheless, we certainly got a 2+% gain on every index, and on
volume
> > > well
> > > > exceeding daily average. And that comes in a period when daily
volume
> > has
> > > > been typically well under average.
> > > >
> > > > So, is anybody starting to count the days, looking for the follow
thru
> > day
> > > > 4-7 days out? Coincidentally, that period might also fall just after
> war
> > > > with Iraq is unilaterally initiated by the USA, which would cause at
> > least
> > > > some minor relief rally.
> > > >
> > > > Does anyone trust today's gains? With so much news, can we trust
> > > technicals?
> > > >
> > > > Tom Worley
> > > > stkguru@bellsouth.net
> > > > AIM: TexWorley
> > > > <<
> > > >
> > > >
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