Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 29 Mar 2003 20:25:35 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_01AC_01C2F631.5A79D740 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_01AD_01C2F631.5A79D740" - ------=_NextPart_001_01AD_01C2F631.5A79D740 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable HOUSING Housing sales, both new and existing, have helped power and sustain the = economy for several years. Many with expertise in this sector (Katherine = included) have doubted the strength and ability to continue this trend. = It is significant, both for its creation of additional consumer spending = (everybody has to buy something new for the new house, no matter how = "perfect" it is), as well as the long term commitment to major debt even = in the face of rising unemployment, and loss of job security. The = industry has been well supported by falling mortgage rates, which have = also allowed many to refinance, and either reduce their monthly mortgage = payment (thus having more to spend on something else), or pull out = equity giving them cash to pay off higher rate debt (hopefully) or spend = on other consumer goods. While this week saw further weakening in = housing sales reports, it must be remembered that these are being = compared to all time records, which is just not sustainable month after = month. Existing home sales fell in February by 4.3% to a 5.84 million unit = annual rate (4th highest on record). January was revised upward to 6.1 = million rate from 6.09 million (December was also revised up). Expected = was 5.8 million. Sales price was at $161.6K, up 8.2% from Feb 2002, = while inventory dropped to a 4.4 month supply from 4.5 months. New home sales also fell sharply, down 8.1% to an annual rate of = 854,000, against an expectation of 935,000. January was revised up to = 929K from 914K. While new home sales make up only a small portion of the = sector, they are crucial to the expectations on earnings growth for home = builder stock prices. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- ECONOMICS The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 62.5 in = March from 64.8, lowest rating since Oct 1993. Expected was 62.4. = Expectations index also fell (62.5 from 65.7) as did the present = situations index (62.4 from 63.5). Credit card delinquencies rose to 4.07% from 4.00% for 4th quarter 2002, = highest since data collection began in 1990 and second month in a row to = set a record. Just check what Sear's (S) stock did when they announced = last week they were considering selling their house credit card = business. Consumer loans delinquencies (including auto and home equity) = rose to 2.16% from 2.06%. Home equity loans alone were up to 1.64%.=20 Durable goods orders slowed further, down another 1.2% and in line with = expectations. However, excluding defense goods, the drop was sharper, = down 2.7%. Capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) was down 2.8%. = Computers and electronics products was down 2.9%. The Chicago PMI and = the ISM Index are reporting next week (Monday, Tuesday) and both are = expected to show sharp drops, with the national ISM Index slipping into = contraction mode. New claims for unemployment fell to 402K last week, well under = expectations of 419K (maybe everyone glued to their TV set?) while the 4 = week moving average followed, down to 422,500 from 426,500. Continuing = claims slowed to 3.52 million from 3.53 million. Personal income grew 0.3% in February while personal spending was = unchanged. Spending, adjusted for price changes, actually fell 0.4%. = Spending on durable goods dropped 2.2% (undoubtedly continued high gas / = energy prices contributed to lack of funds for discretionary spending). Univ. of Michigan revised its March reading on consumer confidence from = 75 up to 77.6, still the lowest since August 1993. Current conditions = were 90.0, down from Feb's 95.4 and future conditions were unchanged at = 69.9, both revised upward slightly. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- "M" All the major indexes ended up remaining over their 50 dma, but none = were able to climb further. NASDAQ 100, and Composite, were the only = ones already well over their 200 dma, and stayed there, reflecting more = the long drop in recent months and the sharp recovery on this market = compared to the rest. Most indexes also showed well under average = volume, as everyone watched the news on the Iraq war, and remained = uncertain about the near future. A clear trend is not evident from the = charts as the market continues to move more on news than fundamentals. = Ten day average of up/down volume reached a 2 for 1 ratio while the ten = day average of new highs to new lows finally struggled into positive = territory for the first time in months. "M" remains fragile, mostly = sideways, and susceptible to any bad news whether war related or = economics (but especially war related right now). Despite the negative = tone of the market for the week, both NASDAQ and NYSE Composite are more = overbought than a week ago. - -------------------------------------------------------------------------= - ------- WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20 This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It = is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's = "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with = constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from = (and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in = Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views = or opinions of my employer. I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, = and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout = scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, = focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all = industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast = for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no = due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM = patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases = (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR = (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my = personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any = stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether = real money or virtual reality (VR). The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend was growing = slightly, despite market trends.=20 AET - b/o from a short, low handle despite weakness in the group ANSI - nice b/o Thursday from a trading range / handle on heavy volume BSTE - nice cup BWS - long consolidation handle DNEX - B6 DRL - base on base?, nice b/o on volume Friday EDUC - B5, in my VR Fund, low price, volume ELTE - c&h, low price, volume, in my VR Fund EPIQ - of course, nice b/o on volume Friday ERES - LLUR FCN - LLUR, volatile, but volatility reduced lately, nice straight 200 = dma average doubled in a year FRX - double bottom, at the pivot GAF - B11 GIL - B8 IMDC - b/o Thursday JCOM - handle forming? OZRK - B10 PFCB - c&h PSUN - c&h, handle slightly high SFFS - LLUR, but no earnings growth STJ - young LLUR? SYK - c&h UCBH - c&h, volume picked up Friday as it approached the pivot God bless America and our troops Tom Worley stkguru@bellsouth.net AIM: TexWorley - ------=_NextPart_001_01AD_01C2F631.5A79D740 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2800.1141" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>HOUSING</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing sales, both new and existing, have = helped power=20 and sustain the economy for several years. Many with expertise in this = sector=20 (Katherine included) have doubted the strength and ability to continue = this=20 trend. It is significant, both for its creation of additional consumer = spending=20 (everybody has to buy something new for the new house, no matter how = "perfect"=20 it is), as well as the long term commitment to major debt even in the = face of=20 rising unemployment, and loss of job security. The industry has been = well=20 supported by falling mortgage rates, which have also allowed many to = refinance,=20 and either reduce their monthly mortgage payment (thus having more to = spend on=20 something else), or pull out equity giving them cash to pay off higher = rate debt=20 (hopefully) or spend on other consumer goods. While this week saw = further=20 weakening in housing sales reports, it must be remembered that these are = being=20 compared to all time records, which is just not sustainable month after=20 month.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Existing home sales fell in February by 4.3% to = a 5.84=20 million unit annual rate (4th highest on record). January was revised = upward to=20 6.1 million rate from 6.09 million (December was also revised up). = Expected was=20 5.8 million. Sales price was at $161.6K, up 8.2% from Feb 2002, while = inventory=20 dropped to a 4.4 month supply from 4.5 months.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New home sales also fell sharply, down 8.1% to = an annual=20 rate of 854,000, against an expectation of 935,000. January was revised=20 up to 929K from 914K. While new home sales make up only a small = portion of=20 the sector, they are crucial to the expectations on earnings growth for = home=20 builder stock prices. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Conference Board's consumer confidence index = slipped=20 to 62.5 in March from 64.8, lowest rating since Oct 1993. Expected was = 62.4.=20 Expectations index also fell (62.5 from 65.7) as did the present = situations=20 index (62.4 from 63.5).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Credit card delinquencies rose to 4.07% from = 4.00% for 4th=20 quarter 2002, highest since data collection began in 1990 and second = month in a=20 row to set a record. Just check what Sear's (S) stock did when they = announced=20 last week they were considering selling their house credit card = business.=20 Consumer loans delinquencies (including auto and home equity) rose to = 2.16% from=20 2.06%. Home equity loans alone were up to 1.64%. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders slowed further, down = another 1.2% and=20 in line with expectations. However, excluding defense goods, the drop = was=20 sharper, down 2.7%. Capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) was = down=20 2.8%. Computers and electronics products was down 2.9%. The Chicago PMI = and the=20 ISM Index are reporting next week (Monday, Tuesday) and both are = expected to=20 show sharp drops, with the national ISM Index slipping into contraction=20 mode.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment fell to 402K last = week, well=20 under expectations of 419K (maybe everyone glued to their TV set?) while = the 4=20 week moving average followed, down to 422,500 from 426,500. Continuing = claims=20 slowed to 3.52 million from 3.53 million.</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Personal income grew 0.3% in February while = personal=20 spending was unchanged. Spending, adjusted for price changes, actually = fell=20 0.4%. Spending on durable goods dropped 2.2% (undoubtedly continued high = gas /=20 energy prices contributed to lack of funds for discretionary=20 spending).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan revised its March reading on = consumer=20 confidence from 75 up to 77.6, still the lowest since August 1993. = Current=20 conditions were 90.0, down from Feb's 95.4 and future conditions were = unchanged=20 at 69.9, both revised upward slightly. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>All the major indexes ended up remaining over = their 50=20 dma, but none were able to climb further. NASDAQ 100, and Composite, = were the=20 only ones already well over their 200 dma, and stayed there, reflecting = more=20 the long drop in recent months and the sharp recovery on this = market=20 compared to the rest. Most indexes also showed well under average = volume, as=20 everyone watched the news on the Iraq war, and remained uncertain about = the near=20 future. A clear trend is not evident from the charts as the market = continues to=20 move more on news than fundamentals. Ten day average of up/down volume = reached a=20 2 for 1 ratio while the ten day average of new highs to new lows finally = struggled into positive territory for the first time in months. "M" = remains=20 fragile, mostly sideways, and susceptible to any bad news whether war = related or=20 economics (but especially war related right now). Despite the negative = tone of=20 the market for the week, both NASDAQ and NYSE Composite are more = overbought than=20 a week ago. <HR> </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST = WANNABES</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20 face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any = stocks to=20 the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health = of=20 CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some = stocks=20 with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of = course doing=20 your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed = in=20 Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is = strictly=20 my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or = opinions of=20 my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS = ranking of 80=20 or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition = /=20 buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet = this general RS/EPS=20 criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I = consider all=20 industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my = personal=20 investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings = forecast=20 for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20 color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your = responsibility</FONT>. I will=20 note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) = bottoms, or=20 flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also = note LLUR=20 (Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM = pattern. Rarely=20 are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due = size,=20 price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a = current=20 personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20 (VR).</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this = weekend was=20 growing slightly, despite market trends. </FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AET - b/o from a short, low handle despite = weakness in the=20 group</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ANSI - nice b/o Thursday from a trading range / = handle on=20 heavy volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BSTE - nice cup</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BWS - long consolidation handle</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DNEX - B6</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DRL - base on base?, nice b/o on volume=20 Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EDUC - B5, in my VR Fund, low price, = volume</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - c&h, low price, volume, in my VR=20 Fund</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EPIQ - of course, nice b/o on volume = Friday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - LLUR</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - LLUR, volatile, but volatility reduced = lately, nice=20 straight 200 dma average doubled in a year</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FRX - double bottom, at the pivot</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GAF - B11</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GIL - B8</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMDC - b/o Thursday</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>JCOM - handle forming?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OZRK - B10</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PFCB - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PSUN - c&h, handle slightly = high</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SFFS - LLUR, but no earnings growth</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>STJ - young LLUR?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SYK - c&h</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>UCBH - c&h, volume picked up Friday as it = approached=20 the pivot</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America and our troops</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 = src=3D"cid:01ab01c2f65b$434d6e40$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20 align=3Dbaseline=20 border=3D0></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></= DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20 href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20 face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: = TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_001_01AD_01C2F631.5A79D740-- - ------=_NextPart_000_01AC_01C2F631.5A79D740 Content-Type: image/gif; name="Waving Flag.gif" Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64 Content-ID: <01ab01c2f65b$434d6e40$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX> R0lGODlhZAA3AMcAAAAAAAAAMwAAZgAAmQAAzAAA/zMAADMAMzMAZjMAmTMAzDMA/2YAAGYAM2YA ZmYAmWYAzGYA/5kAAJkAM5kAZpkAmZkAzJkA/8wAAMwAM8wAZswAmcwAzMwA//8AAP8AM/8AZv8A 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