[CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview


From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: [CANSLIM] Worley's Weekend Weeview
Date: Sat, 29 Mar 2003 20:25:35 -0500

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HOUSING
Housing sales, both new and existing, have helped power and sustain the =
economy for several years. Many with expertise in this sector (Katherine =
included) have doubted the strength and ability to continue this trend. =
It is significant, both for its creation of additional consumer spending =
(everybody has to buy something new for the new house, no matter how =
"perfect" it is), as well as the long term commitment to major debt even =
in the face of rising unemployment, and loss of job security. The =
industry has been well supported by falling mortgage rates, which have =
also allowed many to refinance, and either reduce their monthly mortgage =
payment (thus having more to spend on something else), or pull out =
equity giving them cash to pay off higher rate debt (hopefully) or spend =
on other consumer goods. While this week saw further weakening in =
housing sales reports, it must be remembered that these are being =
compared to all time records, which is just not sustainable month after =
month.

Existing home sales fell in February by 4.3% to a 5.84 million unit =
annual rate (4th highest on record). January was revised upward to 6.1 =
million rate from 6.09 million (December was also revised up). Expected =
was 5.8 million. Sales price was at $161.6K, up 8.2% from Feb 2002, =
while inventory dropped to a 4.4 month supply from 4.5 months.

New home sales also fell sharply, down 8.1% to an annual rate of =
854,000, against an expectation of 935,000. January was revised up to =
929K from 914K. While new home sales make up only a small portion of the =
sector, they are crucial to the expectations on earnings growth for home =
builder stock prices.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

ECONOMICS
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index slipped to 62.5 in =
March from 64.8, lowest rating since Oct 1993. Expected was 62.4. =
Expectations index also fell (62.5 from 65.7) as did the present =
situations index (62.4 from 63.5).

Credit card delinquencies rose to 4.07% from 4.00% for 4th quarter 2002, =
highest since data collection began in 1990 and second month in a row to =
set a record. Just check what Sear's (S) stock did when they announced =
last week they were considering selling their house credit card =
business. Consumer loans delinquencies (including auto and home equity) =
rose to 2.16% from 2.06%. Home equity loans alone were up to 1.64%.=20

Durable goods orders slowed further, down another 1.2% and in line with =
expectations. However, excluding defense goods, the drop was sharper, =
down 2.7%. Capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) was down 2.8%. =
Computers and electronics products was down 2.9%. The Chicago PMI and =
the ISM Index are reporting next week (Monday, Tuesday) and both are =
expected to show sharp drops, with the national ISM Index slipping into =
contraction mode.

New claims for unemployment fell to 402K last week, well under =
expectations of 419K (maybe everyone glued to their TV set?) while the 4 =
week moving average followed, down to 422,500 from 426,500. Continuing =
claims slowed to 3.52 million from 3.53 million.

Personal income grew 0.3% in February while personal spending was =
unchanged. Spending, adjusted for price changes, actually fell 0.4%. =
Spending on durable goods dropped 2.2% (undoubtedly continued high gas / =
energy prices contributed to lack of funds for discretionary spending).

Univ. of Michigan revised its March reading on consumer confidence from =
75 up to 77.6, still the lowest since August 1993. Current conditions =
were 90.0, down from Feb's 95.4 and future conditions were unchanged at =
69.9, both revised upward slightly.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

"M"
All the major indexes ended up remaining over their 50 dma, but none =
were able to climb further. NASDAQ 100, and Composite, were the only =
ones already well over their 200 dma, and stayed there, reflecting more =
the long drop in recent months and the sharp recovery on this market =
compared to the rest. Most indexes also showed well under average =
volume, as everyone watched the news on the Iraq war, and remained =
uncertain about the near future. A clear trend is not evident from the =
charts as the market continues to move more on news than fundamentals. =
Ten day average of up/down volume reached a 2 for 1 ratio while the ten =
day average of new highs to new lows finally struggled into positive =
territory for the first time in months. "M" remains fragile, mostly =
sideways, and susceptible to any bad news whether war related or =
economics (but especially war related right now). Despite the negative =
tone of the market for the week, both NASDAQ and NYSE Composite are more =
overbought than a week ago.
- -------------------------------------------------------------------------=
- -------

WORLEY'S WATCHLIST WANNABES=20
This list is in no way intended to recommend any stocks to the group. It =
is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health of CANSLIM's =
"M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some stocks with =
constructive chart patterns that may be worth WATCHING and learning from =
(and of course doing your own due diligence). I am employed in =
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views =
or opinions of my employer.

I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS ranking of 80 or better, =
and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition / buyout =
scenario. I look at all charts that meet this general RS/EPS criteria, =
focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I consider all =
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal investing. I no longer will actively consider earnings forecast =
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. I do no =
due diligence, that is your responsibility. I will note any CANSLIM =
patterns I see, such as c&h, double (or triple) bottoms, or flat bases =
(shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also note LLUR =
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely are any of these stocks of interest to me for my =
personal investing due size, price or industry group. I will note any =
stocks in which I have a current personal financial interest, whether =
real money or virtual reality (VR).

The population of stocks I am reviewing this weekend was growing =
slightly, despite market trends.=20

AET - b/o from a short, low handle despite weakness in the group
ANSI - nice b/o Thursday from a trading range / handle on heavy volume
BSTE - nice cup
BWS - long consolidation handle
DNEX - B6
DRL - base on base?, nice b/o on volume Friday
EDUC - B5, in my VR Fund, low price, volume
ELTE - c&h, low price, volume, in my VR Fund
EPIQ - of course, nice b/o on volume Friday
ERES - LLUR
FCN - LLUR, volatile, but volatility reduced lately, nice straight 200 =
dma average doubled in a year
FRX - double bottom, at the pivot
GAF - B11
GIL - B8
IMDC - b/o Thursday
JCOM - handle forming?
OZRK - B10
PFCB - c&h
PSUN - c&h, handle slightly high
SFFS - LLUR, but no earnings growth
STJ - young LLUR?
SYK - c&h
UCBH - c&h, volume picked up Friday as it approached the pivot

God bless America and our troops


Tom Worley
stkguru@bellsouth.net
AIM: TexWorley
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>HOUSING</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Housing sales, both new and existing, have =
helped power=20
and sustain the economy for several years. Many with expertise in this =
sector=20
(Katherine included) have doubted the strength and ability to continue =
this=20
trend. It is significant, both for its creation of additional consumer =
spending=20
(everybody has to buy something new for the new house, no matter how =
"perfect"=20
it is), as well as the long term commitment to major debt even in the =
face of=20
rising unemployment, and loss of job security. The industry has been =
well=20
supported by falling mortgage rates, which have also allowed many to =
refinance,=20
and either reduce their monthly mortgage payment (thus having more to =
spend on=20
something else), or pull out equity giving them cash to pay off higher =
rate debt=20
(hopefully) or spend on other consumer goods. While this week saw =
further=20
weakening in housing sales reports, it must be remembered that these are =
being=20
compared to all time records, which is just not sustainable month after=20
month.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Existing home sales fell in February by 4.3% to =
a 5.84=20
million unit annual rate (4th highest on record). January was revised =
upward to=20
6.1 million rate from 6.09 million (December was also revised up). =
Expected was=20
5.8 million. Sales price was at $161.6K, up 8.2% from Feb 2002, while =
inventory=20
dropped to a 4.4 month supply from 4.5 months.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New home sales also fell sharply, down 8.1% to =
an annual=20
rate of 854,000, against an expectation of 935,000. January was revised=20
up&nbsp;to 929K from 914K. While new home sales make up only a small =
portion of=20
the sector, they are crucial to the expectations on earnings growth for =
home=20
builder stock prices.
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>ECONOMICS</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The Conference Board's consumer confidence index =
slipped=20
to 62.5 in March from 64.8, lowest rating since Oct 1993. Expected was =
62.4.=20
Expectations index also fell (62.5 from 65.7) as did the present =
situations=20
index (62.4 from 63.5).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Credit card delinquencies rose to 4.07% from =
4.00% for 4th=20
quarter 2002, highest since data collection began in 1990 and second =
month in a=20
row to set a record. Just check what Sear's (S) stock did when they =
announced=20
last week they were considering selling their house credit card =
business.=20
Consumer loans delinquencies (including auto and home equity) rose to =
2.16% from=20
2.06%. Home equity loans alone were up to 1.64%. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Durable goods orders slowed further, down =
another 1.2% and=20
in line with expectations. However, excluding defense goods, the drop =
was=20
sharper, down 2.7%. Capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) was =
down=20
2.8%. Computers and electronics products was down 2.9%. The Chicago PMI =
and the=20
ISM Index are reporting next week (Monday, Tuesday) and both are =
expected to=20
show sharp drops, with the national ISM Index slipping into contraction=20
mode.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>New claims for unemployment fell to 402K last =
week, well=20
under expectations of 419K (maybe everyone glued to their TV set?) while =
the 4=20
week moving average followed, down to 422,500 from 426,500. Continuing =
claims=20
slowed to 3.52 million from 3.53 million.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Personal income grew 0.3% in February while =
personal=20
spending was unchanged. Spending, adjusted for price changes, actually =
fell=20
0.4%. Spending on durable goods dropped 2.2% (undoubtedly continued high =
gas /=20
energy prices contributed to lack of funds for discretionary=20
spending).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Univ. of Michigan revised its March reading on =
consumer=20
confidence from 75 up to 77.6, still the lowest since August 1993. =
Current=20
conditions were 90.0, down from Feb's 95.4 and future conditions were =
unchanged=20
at 69.9, both revised upward slightly.
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>"M"</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>All the major indexes ended up remaining over =
their 50=20
dma, but none were able to climb further. NASDAQ 100, and Composite, =
were the=20
only ones already well over their 200 dma, and stayed there, reflecting =
more=20
the&nbsp;long drop in recent months and the sharp recovery on this =
market=20
compared to the rest. Most indexes also showed well under average =
volume, as=20
everyone watched the news on the Iraq war, and remained uncertain about =
the near=20
future. A clear trend is not evident from the charts as the market =
continues to=20
move more on news than fundamentals. Ten day average of up/down volume =
reached a=20
2 for 1 ratio while the ten day average of new highs to new lows finally =

struggled into positive territory for the first time in months. "M" =
remains=20
fragile, mostly sideways, and susceptible to any bad news whether war =
related or=20
economics (but especially war related right now). Despite the negative =
tone of=20
the market for the week, both NASDAQ and NYSE Composite are more =
overbought than=20
a week ago.
<HR>
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial><STRONG>WORLEY'S WATCHLIST =
WANNABES</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman"> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>This list is in no way intended to recommend any =
stocks to=20
the group. It is a part of my regular personal assessment of the health =
of=20
CANSLIM's "M" and, as the name implies, only intended to identify some =
stocks=20
with constructive chart patterns that may be worth <STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>WATCHING</FONT> and learning from</STRONG> (and of =
course doing=20
your own due diligence). <FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG><EM>I am employed =
in=20
Operations by a US Broker Dealer, however everything presented by me is =
strictly=20
my own ideas and in no way should be taken to reflect the views or =
opinions of=20
my employer.</EM></STRONG></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I typically list stocks with both RS and EPS =
ranking of 80=20
or better, and try to exclude stocks undergoing any merger / acquisition =
/=20
buyout scenario. I look at all charts that meet =
this&nbsp;general&nbsp;RS/EPS=20
criteria, focusing on ones at or close to a new 12 month high. I =
consider all=20
industry groups and prices, even those I will not consider for my =
personal=20
investing. I&nbsp;no longer will&nbsp;actively consider&nbsp;earnings =
forecast=20
for this year and next due the confusing data presented by DGO. <FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000>I do no due diligence, that is your =
responsibility</FONT>. I will=20
note any CANSLIM patterns I see, such as c&amp;h, double (or triple) =
bottoms, or=20
flat bases (shown as Bx where "x" is the # of weeks, IMO). I will also =
note LLUR=20
(Lower Left Upper Right) even though it is not exactly a CANSLIM =
pattern. Rarely=20
are any of these stocks of interest to me for my personal investing due =
size,=20
price or industry group. I will note any stocks in which I have a =
current=20
personal financial interest, whether real money or virtual reality=20
(VR).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The population of stocks I am reviewing this =
weekend was=20
growing slightly, despite market trends. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>AET - b/o from a short, low handle despite =
weakness in the=20
group</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ANSI - nice b/o Thursday from a trading range / =
handle on=20
heavy volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BSTE - nice cup</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>BWS - long consolidation handle</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DNEX - B6</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>DRL - base on base?, nice b/o on volume=20
Friday</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EDUC - B5, in my VR Fund, low price, =
volume</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ELTE - c&amp;h, low price, volume, in my VR=20
Fund</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>EPIQ - of course, nice b/o on volume =
Friday</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>ERES - LLUR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FCN - LLUR, volatile, but volatility reduced =
lately, nice=20
straight 200 dma average doubled in a year</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>FRX - double bottom, at the pivot</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GAF - B11</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>GIL - B8</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>IMDC - b/o Thursday</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>JCOM - handle forming?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>OZRK - B10</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PFCB - c&amp;h</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>PSUN - c&amp;h, handle slightly =
high</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SFFS - LLUR, but no earnings growth</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>STJ - young LLUR?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>SYK - c&amp;h</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>UCBH - c&amp;h, volume picked up Friday as it =
approached=20
the pivot</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>God bless America and our troops</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0 =
src=3D"cid:01ab01c2f65b$434d6e40$6500a8c0@TOMSBOX"=20
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border=3D0></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></=
DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Tom Worley<BR></FONT><A=20
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net"><FONT=20
face=3DArial>stkguru@bellsouth.net</FONT></A><BR><FONT face=3DArial>AIM: =

TexWorley</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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