From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be breakout
Date: Thu, 3 Apr 2003 23:48:11 -0500
Next Article (by Subject): RE: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be breakout "Jerome Buckmelter"
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for a correct ("proper") breakout, I would certainly want to see volume =
at least 50% over ADV (and preferably at least 100%). Problem with that =
is for those trying to catch a breakout during the day, when the price =
may have broken the pivot, and volume up to that point looks like it =
will reach these levels, but then volume slows way up in the afternoon.
I rarely have the time to try to catch b/o's during the day, so normally =
can consider the full day's trading with some leisure at night, or early =
the next morning. But if I was to buy during the day, and volume up to =
that point indicated double or better day's average (assuming I was at =
least an hour or two into the day), then a slowdown in the afternoon =
would not by itself cause me to sell out. Once I am in a stock, I rely =
much more on the chart pattern, where it closes in terms of that day's =
trading range, and whether it is up or down on more or less than ADV.
One of the principles of CANSLIM, in addition to being able to read the =
charts, is to buy on a breakout within 5% of the pivot, then use an 8% =
stop loss from your purchase price. This means you could slip below the =
pivot, and still not feel obligated to sell. The closer to the pivot you =
buy, the further below the pivot you could ride it.=20
In the case you mention with FRX, one point I would emphasize, which I =
suspect you are already sensitive to, is that you saw a b/o with only a =
4 day handle. The cup itself was well formed, including a capitulation =
day on 2/14/03 on 2X ADV. However, the shortness of the handle, combined =
with the lack of time for volume to dry up, suggests to me that the b/o =
that enticed you was far too immature, especially given the state of =
"M", and the market susceptibility to emotional reaction to the war in =
Iraq (which has nothing to do at least directly to either "M" or the =
state of the economy, but is nonetheless the most current overwhelming =
and overriding influence on "M").
Sometimes you can get away with buying too quickly, or too early, but =
normally you want the trend ("M") already in your favor when you do so. =
With the economy continuing to weaken, emotions still very high over the =
war with Iraq, and a lot of uncertainty still remaining, I think I would =
be unlikely to buy a breakout intraday unless it had already traded =
twice a normal ADV, regardless of just how far it is in the trading day.
Should you now sell (if you haven't already)?? I can't answer that, even =
with today's drop below the pivot, and on 1.5X ADV. Certainly today was =
not encouraging. But your investment time frame, risk tolerance, whether =
you bot the entire intended position or just a portion, etc. all affect =
what you should do now. The stock has not broken down, the fundies =
remain quite healthy, forecasts are strong for the longer term.=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Jerome Buckmelter=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, April 03, 2003 11:04 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be breakout
Tom, Thank you for your input. I value your insights and opinions. Is =
it not true that if volume does not reach 50%, a breakout has not =
occurred by definition? Therefore shouldn't I view the action I =
described with FRX as not a breakout, and think about treating the buy =
differently from a genuine breakout, i.e., setting the loss at 7% or 8%, =
etc.? I
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2003 8:14 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be breakout
=20
Jerome, assuming you are accurate in selecting the pivot point, and =
bought within 5% of that point, then I would stick to a stop loss of 8 =
- -10% below your purchase price. This is a very volatile and emotional =
market. I would also pay close attention to where such a stop loss price =
places you with recent downside support. Depending on that, I might use =
a larger or smaller stop loss, so that my selling point is just under =
support, especially institutional support.
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Jerome Buckmelter=20
To: CANSLIM LIST=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 02, 2003 10:22 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be breakout
=20
Does anyone have an idea how to handle a "breakout" if it doesn't act =
right on the first day? I got fooled this morning by the huge volume =
FRX displayed as it zoomed by its pivot (on a 4-day handle). Of course, =
everything else was surging upwards at the opening of the market! FRX =
cooled off as the day progressed, and its volume ended the day a little =
above average. And the price, of course, dropped below my purchase =
price, but still held above the pivot. Some time ago I devised a =
strategy for myself for such occasions, but I haven't tested it yet, and =
I hope I could get some feed back from fellow CANSLIMers before making a =
mistake with it. Here's my strategy: Sell near at the end of the first =
day if 50% volume does not materialize and stock closes below purchase =
price. Hold if volume does not materialize and stock price closes above =
the purchase price. Sell at the end of the second day if volume does not =
materialize, even if the price is up. Sell the second day if the price =
falls below the pivot. Is this a sound strategy? Does WON address this =
situation anywhere? Can anyone share their strategy? I would really =
appreciate some input. Thanks.=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>for a correct ("proper") breakout, I would =
certainly want=20
to see volume at least 50% over ADV (and preferably at least 100%). =
Problem with=20
that is for those trying to catch a breakout during the day, when the =
price may=20
have broken the pivot, and volume up to that point looks like it will =
reach=20
these levels, but then volume slows way up in the =
afternoon.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I rarely have the time to try to catch b/o's =
during the=20
day, so normally can consider the full day's trading with some leisure =
at night,=20
or early the next morning. But if I was to buy during the day, and =
volume up to=20
that point indicated double or better day's average (assuming I was at =
least an=20
hour or two into the day), then a slowdown in the afternoon would not by =
itself=20
cause me to sell out. Once I am in a stock, I rely much more on the =
chart=20
pattern, where it closes in terms of that day's trading range, and =
whether it is=20
up or down on more or less than ADV.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>One of the principles of CANSLIM, in addition to =
being=20
able to read the charts, is to buy on a breakout within 5% of the pivot, =
then=20
use an 8% stop loss from your purchase price. This means you could slip =
below=20
the pivot, and still not feel obligated to sell. The closer to the pivot =
you=20
buy, the further below the pivot you could ride it. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>In the case you mention with FRX, one point I =
would=20
emphasize, which I suspect you are already sensitive to, is that you saw =
a b/o=20
with only a 4 day handle. The cup itself was well formed, including a=20
capitulation day on 2/14/03 on 2X ADV. However, the shortness of the =
handle,=20
combined with the lack of time for volume to dry up, suggests to me that =
the b/o=20
that enticed you was far too immature, especially given the state of =
"M", and=20
the market susceptibility to emotional reaction to the war in Iraq =
(which has=20
nothing to do at least directly to either "M" or the state of the =
economy, but=20
is nonetheless the most current overwhelming and overriding influence on =
"M").</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Sometimes you can get away with buying too =
quickly, or too=20
early, but normally you want the trend ("M") already in your favor when =
you do=20
so. With the economy continuing to weaken, emotions still very high over =
the war=20
with Iraq, and a lot of uncertainty still remaining, I think I would be =
unlikely=20
to buy a breakout intraday unless it had already traded twice a normal =
ADV,=20
regardless of just how far it is in the trading day.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Should you now sell (if you haven't already)?? I =
can't=20
answer that, even with today's drop below the pivot, and on 1.5X ADV. =
Certainly=20
today was not encouraging. But your investment time frame, risk =
tolerance,=20
whether you bot the entire intended position or just a portion, etc. all =
affect=20
what you should do now. The stock has not broken down, the fundies =
remain quite=20
healthy, forecasts are strong for the longer term. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Djsjbuck@myexcel.com href=3D"mailto:jsjbuck@myexcel.com">Jerome=20
Buckmelter</A> </DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 03, 2003 11:04 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] Bailing out of a would-be=20
breakout</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tom, Thank =
you for your=20
input.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I value your =
insights and=20
opinions.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Is it not true =
that if=20
volume does not reach 50%, a breakout has not occurred by =
definition?<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Therefore shouldn=92t I view =
the action I=20
described with FRX as not a breakout, and think about treating the buy=20
differently from a genuine breakout, i.e., setting the loss at 7% or 8%, =
etc.?=20
<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> </SPAN>I<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3DArial color=3Dnavy size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Message-----<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]=20
<B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B>=20
</SPAN></FONT><st1:date Year=3D"2003" Day=3D"2" Month=3D"4"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Wednesday, =
April 02,=20
2003</SPAN></FONT></st1:date><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> </SPAN></FONT><st1:time=20
Minute=3D"14" Hour=3D"20"><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">8:14=20
PM</SPAN></FONT></st1:time><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> Re: [CANSLIM] Bailing =
out of a=20
would-be breakout</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Jerome, assuming you are =
accurate in=20
selecting the pivot point, and bought within 5% of that point, then I =
would=20
stick to a stop loss of 8 -10% below your purchase price. This is a very =
volatile and emotional market. I would also pay close attention to where =
such a=20
stop loss price places you with recent downside support. Depending on =
that, I=20
might use a larger or smaller stop loss, so that my selling point is =
just under=20
support, especially institutional =
support.</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">----- Original Message =
- -----=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV style=3D"font-color: black">
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; MARGIN-LEFT: =
0.5in"><B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">From:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
title=3Djsjbuck@myexcel.com href=3D"mailto:jsjbuck@myexcel.com">Jerome=20
Buckmelter</A> <o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">To:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> <A=20
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">CANSLIM LIST</A>=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Sent:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">=20
</SPAN></FONT><st1:date Year=3D"2003" Day=3D"2" Month=3D"4"><FONT =
face=3DArial=20
size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Wednesday, =
April 02,=20
2003</SPAN></FONT></st1:date><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> </SPAN></FONT><st1:time =
Minute=3D"22"=20
Hour=3D"22"><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">10:22=20
PM</SPAN></FONT></st1:time><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><B><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial">Subject:</SPAN></FONT></B><FONT=20
face=3DArial size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Arial"> [CANSLIM]=20
Bailing out of a would-be =
breakout<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DArial =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Does anyone have an idea =
how to=20
handle a =93breakout=94 if it doesn=92t act right on the first day?<SPAN =
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I got fooled this morning by =
the huge=20
volume FRX displayed as it zoomed by its pivot (on a 4-day handle).<SPAN =
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Of course, everything else was =
surging=20
upwards at the opening of the market!<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>FRX cooled off as the day progressed, and its volume ended the =
day a=20
little above average.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>And =
the=20
price, of course, dropped below my purchase price, but still held above =
the=20
pivot.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Some time ago I =
devised a=20
strategy for myself for such occasions, but I haven=92t tested it yet, =
and I hope=20
I could get some feed back from fellow CANSLIMers before making a =
mistake with=20
it.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Here=92s my =
strategy:<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Sell near at the end of the =
first day if=20
50% volume does not materialize and stock closes below purchase price. =
Hold if=20
volume does not materialize and stock price closes above the purchase =
price.=20
Sell at the end of the second day if volume does not materialize, even =
if the=20
price is up.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Sell the =
second day if=20
the price falls below the pivot.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>Is=20
this a sound strategy?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>Does WON=20
address this situation anywhere?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> =
</SPAN>Can anyone share their strategy?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>I would really appreciate some input.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Thanks.=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></BODY></HTML>
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