Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2003 06:33:21 -0400
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I think we have already seen pretty much all of the "post war rally" and =
the market is already refocused on the economy and current earnings =
being released. And judging by daily reports over the past few months, I =
expect very little positive surprises for this earnings reporting cycle, =
and much higher than usual reports either "in line" with expectations, =
or failing expectations.

The question now shifts to whether the final stages of the war in Iraq =
encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up corporate activity, =
and boosting expectations for future earnings reports, with focus now =
looking into 2004 economic and earnings forecasts.

There is also the short term question whether the Feds will cut rates =
another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it before the next =
meeting in May.


- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Harold Josephson=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War


Hi Gene,

=20

Thanks for the historically illuminating study.

=20

I wonder what other even more weighty factors were in play at the war's =
end?  How did the economic outlook then compare with the present?  I =
believe that though war sentiment is a powerful determinant of =
investors' behavior now, it will be quickly replaced by more typical =
influences when over.  If the economy is forecast to be lousy, and =
earnings expected to be poor, the recent war will not be a conceptually =
meaningful determinant of stock prices.

=20

Harold

=20

Harold Josephson
Tel: 323.850.1333
Fax: 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com=20

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 9:06 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War

=20

Story from Schwab.com:=20


 =
http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArticle/0,,8=
73|6057,00.html=20
=20
 Gene=20

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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I think we have already seen pretty much all of =
the "post=20
war rally" and the market is already refocused on the economy and =
current=20
earnings being released. And judging by daily reports over the past few =
months,=20
I expect very little positive surprises for this earnings reporting =
cycle, and=20
much higher than usual reports either "in line" with expectations, or =
failing=20
expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The question now shifts to whether the final =
stages of the=20
war in Iraq encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up =
corporate=20
activity, and boosting expectations for future earnings reports, with =
focus now=20
looking into 2004 economic and earnings forecasts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>There is also the short term question whether =
the Feds=20
will cut rates another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it =
before the=20
next meeting in May.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dhj@hjosephson.com href=3D"mailto:hj@hjosephson.com">Harold =
Josephson</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound =
After=20
War</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Hi =
Gene,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Thanks for the historically =
illuminating=20
study.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">I wonder what other even more =
weighty=20
factors were in play at the war=92s end?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes">&nbsp;=20
</SPAN>How did the economic outlook then compare with the present?<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes">&nbsp; </SPAN>I believe that though war =
sentiment is a=20
powerful determinant of investors=92 behavior now, it will be quickly =
replaced by=20
more typical influences when over.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes">&nbsp;=20
</SPAN>If the economy is forecast to be lousy, and earnings expected to =
be poor,=20
the recent war will not be a conceptually meaningful determinant of =
stock=20
prices.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">Harold<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">Harold=20
Josephson</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes"><BR>Tel:=20
323.850.1333<BR>Fax: =
323.512.8968<BR>hj@hjosephson.com</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">=20
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Mes</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">sa</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">ge-----<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">=20
[mailto:</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN =

style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">] <B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Gene =
Ricci<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Tuesday, April 08, 2003 =
9:06=20
PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] History Shows =
Markets=20
Tend to Rebound After War</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Story from Schwab.com:=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><BR>&nbsp;<A=20
href=3D"http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArti=
cle/0,,873|6057,00.html">http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib1=
23/SN123EmailArticle/0,,873|6057,00.html</A>=20
<BR>&nbsp;<BR>&nbsp;Gene =
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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