Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Date: Thu, 10 Apr 2003 00:05:14 -0400
Previous Article (by Author): "M" as affected by dividend tax reductions- was - RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War "Mike Gibbons"
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the consumer never really stopped spending, or even slowed up that much =
until the past several months, despite recession. So there never was a =
"pent up" spending binge once the recession ended (assuming it did, in =
fact, end, and I don't make that assumption). The Fed has lowered rates =
a dozen times so far, and what it achieved was preventing an even deeper =
slide into recession. Another cut would be intended to do just that, =
either make a current recession more shallow, or prevent a "double dip =
recession" (assuming we are not still in one).
The overhang on the market for months has been the uncertainty of all =
the issues surrounding a war against Iraq. There was little focus on =
fundamentals (economy and corporate earnings, to be specific). Now that =
focus begins to return, and the picture is not pretty. The past few =
months of daily reports I get on corporate commentary / forecasts on =
their earnings has been more neutral to negative than I have seen in at =
least a year or more.
I don't think the issue of tax free dividends will change market =
fundamentals, or trend direction. While I strongly feel the double =
taxation should end, I don't think the shareholder should get a free =
ride on this form of income anymore than they get to avoid income tax on =
bond interest. I do think the taxation at the corporate level should =
have been eliminated, and I think that would have done far more to =
inspire fresh buying of stocks that began to pay a dividend, or =
increased the dividend, once it could be deducted as a business expense =
instead of a direct reduction of after tax profits.
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Gene Ricci=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 11:50 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Hi Tom, are you saying that 'if' the consumer resumes spending and the =
FED lowers rates the ''post'' war rally will continue? I think the real =
intangible will be the passing of the 'tax-free' dividends... if that =
happens much money will flow into the market and into those old 'value' =
plays.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Tom Worley=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 5:33 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
I think we have already seen pretty much all of the "post war rally" =
and the market is already refocused on the economy and current earnings =
being released. And judging by daily reports over the past few months, I =
expect very little positive surprises for this earnings reporting cycle, =
and much higher than usual reports either "in line" with expectations, =
or failing expectations.
The question now shifts to whether the final stages of the war in Iraq =
encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up corporate activity, =
and boosting expectations for future earnings reports, with focus now =
looking into 2004 economic and earnings forecasts.
There is also the short term question whether the Feds will cut rates =
another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it before the next =
meeting in May.
----- Original Message -----=20
From: Harold Josephson=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Hi Gene,
=20
Thanks for the historically illuminating study.
=20
I wonder what other even more weighty factors were in play at the =
war's end? How did the economic outlook then compare with the present? =
I believe that though war sentiment is a powerful determinant of =
investors' behavior now, it will be quickly replaced by more typical =
influences when over. If the economy is forecast to be lousy, and =
earnings expected to be poor, the recent war will not be a conceptually =
meaningful determinant of stock prices.
=20
Harold
=20
Harold Josephson
Tel: 323.850.1333
Fax: 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com=20
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com =
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 9:06 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
=20
Story from Schwab.com:=20
=
http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArticle/0,,8=
73|6057,00.html=20
=20
Gene=20
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>the consumer never really stopped spending, or =
even slowed=20
up that much until the past several months, despite recession. So there =
never=20
was a "pent up" spending binge once the recession ended (assuming it =
did, in=20
fact, end, and I don't make that assumption). The Fed has lowered =
rates a=20
dozen times so far, and what it achieved was preventing an even deeper =
slide=20
into recession. Another cut would be intended to do just that, either =
make a=20
current recession more shallow, or prevent a "double dip recession" =
(assuming we=20
are not still in one).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The overhang on the market for months has been =
the=20
uncertainty of all the issues surrounding a war against Iraq. There was =
little=20
focus on fundamentals (economy and corporate earnings, to be specific). =
Now that=20
focus begins to return, and the picture is not pretty. The past few =
months of=20
daily reports I get on corporate commentary / forecasts on their =
earnings has=20
been more neutral to negative than I have seen in at least a year or=20
more.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I don't think the issue of tax free dividends =
will change=20
market fundamentals, or trend direction. While I strongly feel the =
double=20
taxation should end, I don't think the shareholder should get a free =
ride on=20
this form of income anymore than they get to avoid income tax on bond =
interest.=20
I do think the taxation at the corporate level should have been =
eliminated, and=20
I think that would have done far more to inspire fresh buying of stocks =
that=20
began to pay a dividend, or increased the dividend, once it could be =
deducted as=20
a business expense instead of a direct reduction of after tax=20
profits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 11:50 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound =
After=20
War</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hi Tom, are you saying that 'if' the =
consumer=20
resumes spending and the FED lowers rates the ''post'' war rally will =
continue?=20
I think the real intangible will be the passing of the 'tax-free'=20
dividends... if that happens much money will flow into the market and =
into those=20
old 'value' plays.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 =
5:33=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] History =
Shows=20
Markets Tend to Rebound After War</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I think we have already seen pretty much all =
of the=20
"post war rally" and the market is already refocused on the economy =
and=20
current earnings being released. And judging by daily reports over the =
past=20
few months, I expect very little positive surprises for this earnings=20
reporting cycle, and much higher than usual reports either "in line" =
with=20
expectations, or failing expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The question now shifts to whether the final =
stages of=20
the war in Iraq encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up =
corporate=20
activity, and boosting expectations for future earnings reports, with =
focus=20
now looking into 2004 economic and earnings forecasts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>There is also the short term question whether =
the Feds=20
will cut rates another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it =
before the=20
next meeting in May.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dhj@hjosephson.com href=3D"mailto:hj@hjosephson.com">Harold =
Josephson</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to =
Rebound After=20
War</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Hi =
Gene,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Thanks for the historically =
illuminating=20
study.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">I wonder what other even more =
weighty=20
factors were in play at the war=92s end?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>How did the economic outlook then compare with the =
present?<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I believe that though war =
sentiment is=20
a powerful determinant of investors=92 behavior now, it will be =
quickly replaced=20
by more typical influences when over.<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>If the economy is forecast to be lousy, and earnings expected =
to be=20
poor, the recent war will not be a conceptually meaningful determinant =
of=20
stock prices.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">Harold<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">Harold=20
Josephson</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes"><BR>Tel:=20
323.850.1333<BR>Fax: =
323.512.8968<BR>hj@hjosephson.com</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">=20
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Mes</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">sa</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">ge-----<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> =
</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">=20
[mailto:</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">]=20
<B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Gene=20
Ricci<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Tuesday, April=20
08, 2003 9:06 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] History =
Shows Markets=20
Tend to Rebound After War</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Story from Schwab.com:=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT face=3D"Times =
New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><BR> <A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArti=
cle/0,,873|6057,00.html">http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib1=
23/SN123EmailArticle/0,,873|6057,00.html</A>=20
<BR> <BR> Gene=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
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Previous Article (by Author): "M" as affected by dividend tax reductions- was - RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War "Mike Gibbons"
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