Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Mike Gibbons" <mike@proactech.com>
Subject: "M" as affected by dividend tax reductions- was - RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2003 21:28:25 -1000
Next Article (by Author): Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War "Tom Worley"
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Tom, kudos for raising a little discussed issue.
Your last paragraph highlights an issue that has received little focus in=
the popular media, probably because the issue is too
arcane to be captured in a sound-bite. As you rightly draw attention to, =
corporations pay interest on their debts out of their
profits before taxes, while dividends must be paid from profits after tax=
es. Thus the tax code gives companies an incentive to
finance their activities by borrowing money rather than by selling stock,=
which would spread the risks and rewards of the enterprise
among the community of stockholders. In other words, the present tax code=
in this respect is actually anti-capitalistic and the
proposed changes would do nothing to redress this. There would be an ince=
ntive for companies who don't currently pay dividends to
start doing so, because there would be a one-time jump in their stock pri=
ce, but once this initial stimulus (which is its purpose)
is past, the benefit to the economy as a whole would seem negligible.
You also refer to the preference given to dividend income from stocks rat=
her than from bonds, or other interest income, and that too
introduces a distortion. While stock investors may applaud it, why are th=
ey more deserving than other forms of investor?
When and if enacted, the dividend tax cut will probably achieve a short t=
erm stimulus, although that may already be built in, but it
is unlikely, of itself to transform "M" from bull to bear.
Aloha,
Mike Gibbons
Proactive Technologies, LLC
http://www.proactech.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com]On Behalf Of Tom Worley
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 6:05 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
the consumer never really stopped spending, or even slowed up that much=
until the past several months, despite recession. So there
never was a "pent up" spending binge once the recession ended (assuming i=
t did, in fact, end, and I don't make that assumption).
The Fed has lowered rates a dozen times so far, and what it achieved was =
preventing an even deeper slide into recession. Another cut
would be intended to do just that, either make a current recession more s=
hallow, or prevent a "double dip recession" (assuming we
are not still in one).
The overhang on the market for months has been the uncertainty of all t=
he issues surrounding a war against Iraq. There was little
focus on fundamentals (economy and corporate earnings, to be specific). N=
ow that focus begins to return, and the picture is not
pretty. The past few months of daily reports I get on corporate commentar=
y / forecasts on their earnings has been more neutral to
negative than I have seen in at least a year or more.
I don't think the issue of tax free dividends will change market fundam=
entals, or trend direction. While I strongly feel the
double taxation should end, I don't think the shareholder should get a fr=
ee ride on this form of income anymore than they get to
avoid income tax on bond interest. I do think the taxation at the corpora=
te level should have been eliminated, and I think that
would have done far more to inspire fresh buying of stocks that began to =
pay a dividend, or increased the dividend, once it could be
deducted as a business expense instead of a direct reduction of after tax=
profits.
----- Original Message -----
From: Gene Ricci
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 11:50 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Hi Tom, are you saying that 'if' the consumer resumes spending and the =
FED lowers rates the ''post'' war rally will continue? I
think the real intangible will be the passing of the 'tax-free' dividend=
s... if that happens much money will flow into the market
and into those old 'value' plays.
----- Original Message -----
From: Tom Worley
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 5:33 AM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After Wa=
r
I think we have already seen pretty much all of the "post war rally" =
and the market is already refocused on the economy and
current earnings being released. And judging by daily reports over the pa=
st few months, I expect very little positive surprises for
this earnings reporting cycle, and much higher than usual reports either =
"in line" with expectations, or failing expectations.
The question now shifts to whether the final stages of the war in Ira=
q encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up
corporate activity, and boosting expectations for future earnings reports=
, with focus now looking into 2004 economic and earnings
forecasts.
There is also the short term question whether the Feds will cut rates=
another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it before
the next meeting in May.
----- Original Message -----
From: Harold Josephson
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After Wa=
r
Hi Gene,
Thanks for the historically illuminating study.
I wonder what other even more weighty factors were in play at the war=
=92s end? How did the economic outlook then compare with the
present? I believe that though war sentiment is a powerful determinant o=
f investors=92 behavior now, it will be quickly replaced by
more typical influences when over. If the economy is forecast to be lous=
y, and earnings expected to be poor, the recent war will
not be a conceptually meaningful determinant of stock prices.
Harold
Harold Josephson
Tel: 323.850.1333
Fax: 323.512.8968
hj@hjosephson.com
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xm=
ission.com] On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
Sent: Tuesday, April 08, 2003 9:06 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to Rebound After War
Story from Schwab.com:
http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArticle=
/0,,873|6057,00.html
Gene
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<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Tom,=20
kudos for raising a little discussed issue.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Your=20
last paragraph highlights an issue that has received little focus in the =
popular=20
media, probably because the issue is too arcane to be captured in a =
sound-bite.=20
As you rightly draw attention to, corporations pay interest on =
their debts=20
out of their profits before taxes, while dividends must be paid from =
profits=20
after taxes. Thus the tax code gives companies an incentive to finance =
their=20
activities by borrowing money rather than by selling stock, which would =
spread=20
the risks and rewards of the enterprise among the community of =
stockholders. In=20
other words, the present tax code in this respect is actually =
anti-capitalistic=20
and the proposed changes would do nothing to redress this. There would =
be an=20
incentive for companies who don't currently pay dividends to start doing =
so,=20
because there would be a one-time jump in their stock price, but once =
this=20
initial stimulus (which is its purpose) is past, the benefit to the =
economy as a=20
whole would seem negligible.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>You=20
also refer to the preference given to dividend income from stocks rather =
than=20
from bonds, or other interest income, and that too introduces a =
distortion.=20
While stock investors may applaud it, why are they more deserving than =
other=20
forms of investor?</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080 size=3D2>When=20
and if enacted, the dividend tax cut will probably achieve a short term=20
stimulus, although that may already be built in, but it is unlikely, of =
itself=20
to transform "M" from bull to bear.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN class=3D853315806-10042003></SPAN><FONT face=3DTahoma =
color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>Aloha,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Mike =
Gibbons</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080 size=3D2>Proactive =
Technologies,=20
LLC</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DTahoma color=3D#000080=20
size=3D2>http://www.proactech.com</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr style=3D"MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV class=3DOutlookMessageHeader dir=3Dltr align=3Dleft><FONT =
face=3DTahoma=20
size=3D2>-----Original Message-----<BR><B>From:</B>=20
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]<B>On Behalf Of </B>Tom=20
Worley<BR><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 6:05 PM<BR><B>To:</B> =
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] History =
Shows=20
Markets Tend to Rebound After War<BR><BR></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>the consumer never really stopped spending, or =
even=20
slowed up that much until the past several months, despite recession. =
So there=20
never was a "pent up" spending binge once the recession ended =
(assuming it=20
did, in fact, end, and I don't make that assumption). The Fed =
has=20
lowered rates a dozen times so far, and what it achieved was =
preventing an=20
even deeper slide into recession. Another cut would be intended to do =
just=20
that, either make a current recession more shallow, or prevent a =
"double dip=20
recession" (assuming we are not still in one).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The overhang on the market for months has been =
the=20
uncertainty of all the issues surrounding a war against Iraq. There =
was little=20
focus on fundamentals (economy and corporate earnings, to be =
specific). Now=20
that focus begins to return, and the picture is not pretty. The past =
few=20
months of daily reports I get on corporate commentary / forecasts on =
their=20
earnings has been more neutral to negative than I have seen in at =
least a year=20
or more.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I don't think the issue of tax free dividends =
will=20
change market fundamentals, or trend direction. While I strongly feel =
the=20
double taxation should end, I don't think the shareholder should get a =
free=20
ride on this form of income anymore than they get to avoid income tax =
on bond=20
interest. I do think the taxation at the corporate level should have =
been=20
eliminated, and I think that would have done far more to inspire fresh =
buying=20
of stocks that began to pay a dividend, or increased the dividend, =
once it=20
could be deducted as a business expense instead of a direct reduction =
of after=20
tax profits.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Dgenr@swbell.net href=3D"mailto:genr@swbell.net">Gene Ricci</A> =
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 11:50 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to =
Rebound After=20
War</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hi Tom, are you saying that 'if' the =
consumer=20
resumes spending and the FED lowers rates the ''post'' war rally will=20
continue? I think the real intangible will be the passing of the =
'tax-free' dividends... if that happens much money will flow into the =
market=20
and into those old 'value' plays.</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV=20
style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: =
black"><B>From:</B>=20
<A title=3Dstkguru@bellsouth.net =
href=3D"mailto:stkguru@bellsouth.net">Tom=20
Worley</A> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A =
title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, =
2003 5:33=20
AM</DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] =
History Shows=20
Markets Tend to Rebound After War</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I think we have already seen pretty much all =
of the=20
"post war rally" and the market is already refocused on the economy =
and=20
current earnings being released. And judging by daily reports over =
the past=20
few months, I expect very little positive surprises for this =
earnings=20
reporting cycle, and much higher than usual reports either "in line" =
with=20
expectations, or failing expectations.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>The question now shifts to whether the final =
stages of=20
the war in Iraq encourages consumers to resume spending, driving up=20
corporate activity, and boosting expectations for future earnings =
reports,=20
with focus now looking into 2004 economic and earnings=20
forecasts.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>There is also the short term question =
whether the Feds=20
will cut rates another 50 basis points, and if so, will they do it =
before=20
the next meeting in May.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> =
<A=20
title=3Dhj@hjosephson.com href=3D"mailto:hj@hjosephson.com">Harold =
Josephson</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Wednesday, April 09, 2003 1:25 AM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> RE: [CANSLIM] History Shows Markets Tend to =
Rebound=20
After War</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV class=3DSection1>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Hi =
Gene,<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">Thanks for the historically=20
illuminating study.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black">I wonder what other even =
more weighty=20
factors were in play at the war=92s end?<SPAN style=3D"mso-spacerun: =
yes"> =20
</SPAN>How did the economic outlook then compare with the =
present?<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>I believe that though war =
sentiment=20
is a powerful determinant of investors=92 behavior now, it will be =
quickly=20
replaced by more typical influences when over.<SPAN=20
style=3D"mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>If the economy is forecast =
to be=20
lousy, and earnings expected to be poor, the recent war will not be =
a=20
conceptually meaningful determinant of stock=20
prices.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black">Harold<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D3><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: =
black"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3D"Times New Roman" color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">Harold=20
Josephson</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT color=3Dblack =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes"><BR>Tel:=20
323.850.1333<BR>Fax: =
323.512.8968<BR>hj@hjosephson.com</SPAN></FONT><FONT=20
color=3Dblack><SPAN style=3D"COLOR: black; mso-no-proof: yes">=20
</SPAN></FONT><o:p></o:p></P></DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">-----Original=20
Mes</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">sa</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><FONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">ge-----<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B>=20
</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">=20
[mailto:</SPAN></FONT><st1:PersonName><FONT face=3DTahoma =
size=3D2><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com</SPAN></FONT></st1:PersonName><F=
ONT=20
face=3DTahoma size=3D2><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: =
Tahoma">]=20
<B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">On Behalf Of </SPAN></B>Gene=20
Ricci<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> =
Tuesday, April=20
08, 2003 9:06 PM<BR><B><SPAN style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: =
bold">To:</SPAN></B>=20
canslim@lists.xmission.com<BR><B><SPAN=20
style=3D"FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B> [CANSLIM] History =
Shows=20
Markets Tend to Rebound After War</SPAN></FONT></P>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: =
12pt"><o:p> </o:p></SPAN></FONT></P>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Story from Schwab.com:=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=3DMsoNormal style=3D"MARGIN-LEFT: 0.5in"><FONT =
face=3D"Times New Roman"=20
size=3D3><SPAN style=3D"FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><BR> <A=20
=
href=3D"http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib123/SN123EmailArti=
cle/0,,873|6057,00.html">http://www.schwab.com/SchwabNOW/SNLibrary/SNLib1=
23/SN123EmailArticle/0,,873|6057,00.html</A>=20
<BR> <BR> Gene=20
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></FONT></P></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY=
></HTML>
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