Re: [CANSLIM] This rally/AVID?

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] This rally/AVID?
Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2003 13:18:35 -0400
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Jonathan,

I have also been very surprised at the lack of activity in the group, =
usually by now I would expect to see a lot more postings and =
discussions, both of individual stocks breaking out, or setting up for a =
b/o, as well as implications of "M". I have an excuse, overwork, =
averaging better than 80 hours/week for some time. Perhaps others have =
the same problem.=20

On AVID, I note that the short position of 6 days ADV increased 21% on =
the past report, so your guess as to the shorts covering may be =
accurate. I would be more concerned at the lack of sales growth on a =
sequential quarter basis. Otherwise, fundies look strong, and the =
company appears to be in good position to reach this years earnings =
forecasts of over 200% growth.

I would also note that on a weekly chart this is a high handle scenario, =
which by experience means greater risk of a break down.
=20
- ----- Original Message -----=20
From: Jonathan Lobatto=20
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20
Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 4:36 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] This rally/AVID?


Based on past experience with this list, it's a bit odd to me that there =
isn't more activity here as there have been decent stocks breaking out =
for a while now. Prior rallies have brought a good deal of comment. If =
one can conclude from the relative silence that everyone is so disgusted =
with a couple of years of false breakouts and as such, so skeptical of =
this current rally, is it possible this one may be for real??

BTW, one stock I bought recently (on the 4/2 breakout) is AVID. AVID =
announced earnings this morning and the stock instantly tanked around =
10%. I was just about to sell it as it was right around an 8% loss for =
me when the stock began to recover. It basically climbed the rest of the =
day and actually ended the day closing up a fraction! Odd =
behavior....I'm tempted to say this shows big underlying demand for the =
stock. One clue may be that it has a large short interest and when the =
shorts came to the conclusion that the earnings were not that =
horrendous, they may have been covering today. Could be a short squeeze =
in the making (although now having said that, watch it sink like a =
stone!)

Jon
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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>Jonathan,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I have also been very surprised at the lack of =
activity in=20
the group, usually by now I would expect to see a lot more postings and=20
discussions, both of individual stocks breaking out, or setting up for a =
b/o, as=20
well as implications of "M". I have an excuse, overwork, averaging =
better than=20
80 hours/week for some time. Perhaps others have the same problem. =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>On AVID, I note that the short position of 6 =
days ADV=20
increased 21% on the past report, so your guess as to the shorts =
covering may be=20
accurate. I would be more concerned at the lack of sales growth on a =
sequential=20
quarter basis. Otherwise, fundies look strong, and the company appears =
to be in=20
good position to reach this years earnings forecasts of over 200%=20
growth.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>I would also note that on a weekly chart this is =

a&nbsp;high handle scenario, which by experience means greater risk of a =
break=20
down.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial>&nbsp;</FONT></DIV>
<DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message -----=20
<DIV style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B> <A=20
title=3Djlobatto@nyc.rr.com href=3D"mailto:jlobatto@nyc.rr.com">Jonathan =
Lobatto</A>=20
</DIV>
<DIV><B>To:</B> <A title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
 </DIV>
<DIV><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, April 17, 2003 4:36 PM</DIV>
<DIV><B>Subject:</B> [CANSLIM] This rally/AVID?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>Based on past experience with =
this list,=20
it's a bit odd to me that there isn't more activity here as there have =
been=20
decent stocks breaking out for a while now. Prior rallies have brought a =
good=20
deal of comment. If one can conclude from the relative silence that =
everyone is=20
so disgusted with a couple of years of false breakouts and as such, so =
skeptical=20
of this current rally, is it possible this one may be for =
real??</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>BTW, one stock I bought =
recently (on the=20
4/2 breakout) is AVID. AVID announced earnings this morning and the =
stock=20
instantly tanked around 10%. I was just about to sell it as it was right =
around=20
an 8% loss for me when the stock began to recover. It basically climbed =
the rest=20
of the day and actually ended the day&nbsp;closing up a fraction! Odd=20
behavior....I'm tempted to say this shows big underlying demand for the =
stock.=20
One clue may be that it has a large short interest and when the shorts =
came to=20
the conclusion that the earnings were not that horrendous, they may have =
been=20
covering today. Could be a short squeeze in the making (although now=20
having&nbsp;said that, watch it sink like a stone!)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff></FONT>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DVerdana color=3D#0000ff>Jon</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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