Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading

From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2003 16:07:23 -0500
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Tom,

I appreciate the response. I went back and read WON this weekend, and
started looking at using the % above the 50 or 200dMA as a possible exit
point, for at least part of my position.  Some of the chart signs that he
gives as sell signals seem a bit subjective, and that is why I wanted to
ask the group for some help on the chart analysis.

 Interestingly enough, I also had a position in OVTI that I was up 20% on,
and it got hammered one day, and by stop at a 5% gain got me out. And of
course, it corrected and has continued to move up since!  That is why I
waffle back and forth. Take the sure thing 20% profit today, or hold out
for more....

At least for today it was good, up another 4.5% on MVL.

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com


                                                                                                                            
                    "Tom Worley"                                                                                            
                    <stkguru@bellsouth.net       To:     canslim@lists.xmission.com                                         
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                    04/18/2003 12:01 PM                                                                                     
                    Please respond to                                                                                       
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Hi Michael,

I see no reason to be a profit taker right now. Granted, after seven
straight days of gains, a correction is overdue, but could easily take the
form of a sideways move for a week or so, rather than an inversion of price
gains. Fundies already look strong, yet market cap/sales ratio still only
about 3. The trailing PE is high at 42, but much more moderate using
forward
PE, which must be the focus. Volume has remained high, and funds ownership
is low (6%) suggesting there is a lot of room for funds to jump on the
bandwagon, especially if they get excited about upcoming product releases.

Likewise, last short position report showed 4 days volume as short, and was
up 8%. So the shorts may be already getting squeezed and could be a part of
the recent rise in price / volume. But a determined shorter will also be
selling more now, at the new, higher prices.

Since this is a highly liquid stock trading with a tight spread, and you
are
already up over 15%, what I would be doing is maintaining a trailing 15%
hard stop loss, adjusted up daily as long as it continues to rise. Whether
you use intraday high, or closing price, for this adjustment is your
choice.
This would protect your profit to a degree, and absent a major gap down
guarantee you escaping with something to show for taking the risk. My
simple
indicators I use for target price for exiting (1.5X the 50 DMA and 2X the
200 DMA) suggest a target price short term of the very high teens to low
20s. If it continues to rise over time, a trailing stop loss regularly
adjusted will increase your profit potential and hopefully give you enough
slack to stay in the stock despite short term corrections.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 1:34 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading


Hi all,

I have a position in Marvel (MVL) and currently am sitting on a profit of
20% +. I am tempted to sell at least part of my position, since I have been
burned recently when a breakout stock gets hit hard and falls back. (I do
have a 10% trailing stop in place).

But, since the 20% gain had occurred within  first 3 weeks of my purchase,
my reading of WON says that I should hold on for at least 8 weeks.

Also, with the upcoming movie releases of X-men 2 and the Hulk, I would
certainly think that the upside for further gains in the near future looks
good.


Does anyone see anything on the chart that would lead them to any yellow or
red flags for selling now?

Thanks for any help

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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