Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading

From: "Tom Worley" <stkguru@bellsouth.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading
Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2003 19:56:48 -0400
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Top of Thread: Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading michael_niemotka@baxter.com
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I think any stop loss price should be selected after studying the chart, and
considering your entry point. When I use hard stops, I like to put them just
under where I see support, figuring if it goes thru short term support then
it could go down a lot further.

When I really don't want to be stopped out, and especially when I already
have a nice profit, I tend to use looser stops.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>
To: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>; <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Monday, April 21, 2003 5:28 PM
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading


Michael,

I have been going back and forth too. I still have not been able to
make up my mind as to where to put the sell point.

I have kind of worked up the courage of putting a stop at 8% below the
highest price of the day (or my purchase price -- whichever is higher)
with the hopes that any stock that goes 8% down from any point is a
potential target for further corrections because of potential lack of
support from institutional buyers.

Have people played with the above kind of stop? And doing that what
kind of success/failures have they gotten?

Regards,
Pritish

>>> michael_niemotka@baxter.com 04/21/03 05:07PM >>>

Tom,

I appreciate the response. I went back and read WON this weekend, and
started looking at using the % above the 50 or 200dMA as a possible
exit
point, for at least part of my position.  Some of the chart signs that
he
gives as sell signals seem a bit subjective, and that is why I wanted
to
ask the group for some help on the chart analysis.

 Interestingly enough, I also had a position in OVTI that I was up 20%
on,
and it got hammered one day, and by stop at a 5% gain got me out. And
of
course, it corrected and has continued to move up since!  That is why
I
waffle back and forth. Take the sure thing 20% profit today, or hold
out
for more....

At least for today it was good, up another 4.5% on MVL.

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com




                    "Tom Worley"

                    <stkguru@bellsouth.net       To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    >                            cc:

                    Sent by:                     Subject:     Re:
[CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm

                    ission.com





                    04/18/2003 12:01 PM

                    Please respond to

                    canslim









Hi Michael,

I see no reason to be a profit taker right now. Granted, after seven
straight days of gains, a correction is overdue, but could easily take
the
form of a sideways move for a week or so, rather than an inversion of
price
gains. Fundies already look strong, yet market cap/sales ratio still
only
about 3. The trailing PE is high at 42, but much more moderate using
forward
PE, which must be the focus. Volume has remained high, and funds
ownership
is low (6%) suggesting there is a lot of room for funds to jump on the
bandwagon, especially if they get excited about upcoming product
releases.

Likewise, last short position report showed 4 days volume as short, and
was
up 8%. So the shorts may be already getting squeezed and could be a
part of
the recent rise in price / volume. But a determined shorter will also
be
selling more now, at the new, higher prices.

Since this is a highly liquid stock trading with a tight spread, and
you
are
already up over 15%, what I would be doing is maintaining a trailing
15%
hard stop loss, adjusted up daily as long as it continues to rise.
Whether
you use intraday high, or closing price, for this adjustment is your
choice.
This would protect your profit to a degree, and absent a major gap
down
guarantee you escaping with something to show for taking the risk. My
simple
indicators I use for target price for exiting (1.5X the 50 DMA and 2X
the
200 DMA) suggest a target price short term of the very high teens to
low
20s. If it continues to rise over time, a trailing stop loss regularly
adjusted will increase your profit potential and hopefully give you
enough
slack to stay in the stock despite short term corrections.

- ----- Original Message -----
From: <michael_niemotka@baxter.com>
To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
Sent: Thursday, April 17, 2003 1:34 PM
Subject: [CANSLIM] sell rules and chart reading


Hi all,

I have a position in Marvel (MVL) and currently am sitting on a profit
of
20% +. I am tempted to sell at least part of my position, since I have
been
burned recently when a breakout stock gets hit hard and falls back. (I
do
have a 10% trailing stop in place).

But, since the 20% gain had occurred within  first 3 weeks of my
purchase,
my reading of WON says that I should hold on for at least 8 weeks.

Also, with the upcoming movie releases of X-men 2 and the Hulk, I
would
certainly think that the upside for further gains in the near future
looks
good.


Does anyone see anything on the chart that would lead them to any
yellow or
red flags for selling now?

Thanks for any help

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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