RE: [CANSLIM] SHFL

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] SHFL
Date: Sun, 11 May 2003 19:28:03 -0500
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Hi Tomas, Roger, jans,

I thought it would be appropriate to comment on some of the figures Tomas
gave in his reply, as he mentions numbers from our site.

- -On fundamentals: Our CANSLIM Evaluator (CE) is divided into 2 separate
figures, one for fundamentals (i.e. the drivers of technical action) and one
for technicals (the price/volume action). For SHFL, the total of 15.69 is
derived from a technical score of 6.47 (out of 7 possible) and a fundamental
score of 9.22 (out of 11 possible). That's nothing to sneeze at, but I
wouldn't want to mislead anybody into thinking that all 15.69 points were
derived from fundamentals alone. Part of our reasoning for having these two
separate components is to be sure that a stock has a good combination of
*both* fundamental and technical attributes at the same time. That helps
avoid stocks that are strong one way or the other, but not in tandem. In
comparison to the other 44 stocks in the industry, SHFL rates first in
fundamentals, a hair better than PENN. It ranks 5th in overall technical
condition. It's rare to find stocks that get a "perfect" fundamental score.
In SHFL's case, it looses some points due to the slight deceleration in
sales and earnings growth rates and due to the net shares sold by
institutions which both Roger and Tomas mentioned.

- -On the chart: It is true that SHFL originally set up in a cup with handle
pattern back in March. It appeared on one of our watchlists 3/31 and set up
with the pivot as you described:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/SHFL033103.JPG

However, it did not breakout at that time. You can see a close up of the
action shortly after. While it tried to break free, it did not do so on
volume, so effectively, the right side of the cup continued to form:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/SHFLSincePivot0303.JPG

In general, I don't much like the volume on the right side of the
continuation of the cup. It looks wedge-like to me and I think SHFL may need
to spend some time in the current handle to properly shake out that lousy
action in the base. It might be a bit easier to see in a weekly chart:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/SHFL050903Wkly.JPG  (Note: current pivot
is at 24.85)


- -General comments: When I first took a look at SHFL this morning, I truly
expected to see the industry action rolling over. As jans mentioned, this
group has been strong in the last couple of years and the odds of an
industry staying at the top after such a long time is rather low. However,
when I took a look at the industry action as a whole and at the charts of
the stocks within the industry, I noticed that for the most part, most of
the stocks have been oscillating sideways for quite a while. That *could*
very well indicate a shoring up for another move up. Looking at the chart of
the industry technicals and rank as a whole, there's certainly evidence that
the group is turning back *up* rather than rolling over and heading down:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/LeisureGaming050903.JPG

The popularity of gambling escapes me, so I can't say that this group has
ever interested me enough to dive into the details, but technically and
fundamentally, there seems to be some promise in the group. Here's one last
look at the distribution of the group across the CE Zone Map:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/LeisureGamingMap050903.JPG

This shows that there are quite a few stocks with good CANSLIM
characteristics, i.e. a good combo of both fundamentals and technical, as
the number of stocks in the green zone area are pretty impressive.

Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Tomas
Sent: Sunday, May 11, 2003 1:52 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHFL


Roger, Jans,

I believe Roger is looking at the institutional
ownership activities for the stock when he commented
about the institional thing.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/ownership/ownership.asp?Symbol=s
hfl

I cannot comment on the RS lines from Jans' input
since I don't have much experience reading the RS
line.

The fundies for SHFL looks good.  15.69 out of 18
(very good) for the CS evaluator.  The zone is green
4-4.  The institional ownership looks too high ~98%.
Anyone want to correct me on this opinion?

Looking at the chart, left side of the cup starts at
11/4/02 and right side of the cup is at 3/21/03
at $21.98.  Handle is from 3/22 to 4/29.  Handle
trended down, which is good.  BO is on 4/30
with not as much volume as I would have liked.  But
big volume two days later.

If you agreen with the CwH dates, then the stock is a
little extended.

Just my $.02
tomas


- --- Spencer48@aol.com wrote:
> Roger,
>
>      What gives you the clue that "...institutions
> seem to be getting out."
> The number of funds invested in SHFL, according to
> Daily Graphs Online, from
> June/02 to March/03 is 81->98 (although in Dec. it
> was 99).  Is this the only
> signal that you see?
>
>      In my opinion I wouldn't invest in SHFL for
> these reasons:  1) I believe
> strength of the Leisure/Gaming Equip. industry is
> beginning to end; its power
> was shown in the past few months and now-in my
> opinion-it's going to
> dissipate.  The stocks in this group are already
> surfeited and ready to
> digest their gains.  The up and coming industries, I
> believe, will have to do
> with Technology and Medical stocks.
>
>      Also, specifically to SHFL, notice the four
> weakly peaks it has made
> since May/01.  Around 25 seems to be the resistance
> point.  And the
> RelativeStrengthLine does not indicate that the
> stock is strong enough to
> break the resistance.  I conclude this because:
> Notice that the previous
> peak's RSL was in strong divergence from its prior
> resistance peak (in early
> Nov./02).
>
>      However, in last week's price peak (at the
> resistance) RSL is either
> below or just barely above (it is certainly not
> showing the kind of strength
> the previous RSL showed at Nov/02's resistance
> point).
>
> jans
>
>
>
> In a message dated 5/10/2003 8:10:07 PM Eastern
> Daylight Time,
> roger@tawacentral.net writes:
>
> << The fundies look good, with one exception:
> institutions seem to be getting
>  out.
>   >>
>
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