Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Gene Ricci" <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 13:13:11 -0500
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Hi Ian, and how much time would be required on a daily basis? a. beginning investor b. intermediate investor c. trained investor d. expert investor Thanks, Gene ----- Original Message -----=20 From: Ian=20 To: canslim@lists.xmission.com=20 Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 1:11 PM Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal? Hi Tomas: I'll be the exception here and say that I believe that 40% a year is a reasonable goal (particularly up until you have about $600,000 - IMHO, outsized returns are a lot easier with smaller amounts of money) if = you are extremely disciplined about: * cutting losses very early * REALLY letting your winners run * committed to buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You = don't have to believe in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to understand that most of these rallies are good for about 2 months and = 30% runs in the indices). NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all seem to fly in the = face of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely essential to = achieve outsized gains. My personal goals are to double every two years (about 42% per year), = and I have been achieving it. As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 = years ago this weekend, and is up about 118% to date: = http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/FundPubli= cPa ge?source=3DDoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi (and this was during an ugly = market, and with an average of 30% cash, and no shorting allowed, and using strict = SEC mutual fund asset allocation rules) As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound the gains is taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the US. Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up 80-200%. = If you slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts happened, you would = easily be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months. IMHO, with an unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think = that somewhere in the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where = these kind of gains become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional = money manager, who must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living = from fees, it really is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for = the individual investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their 'money making universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of available equities, so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of = gains. Consider SSYS and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during = the last 2 months. Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when = the rally started (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the = average probably under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, = you probably couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a = huge impact on you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions = for yourself, these two stocks alone could have netted you 20-30%. Cheers, Ian Marketocracy has 100+ funds that were up 30% in the last 30 days = alone: = http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/RankingVi= ewP age?date=3D20030516&subject=3D30Days%20Rankings%2081%20%2D%20100 IMHO, that is only possible because of the small position sizes. ----- Original Message ----- From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com> To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com> Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal? > This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an > investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to > make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal? > The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add > between $5-$10K capital every year. > > I understand that there are many factors like > - how discipline you are > - how diligence you are > - how persistent you are > - how you learn from your mistake and > do post analysis of your trades > - and even how lucky you are. > > But assumption that the investor is decently good on > those factors. What is your opinion? > > Thanks, > tomas > > > __________________________________ > Do you Yahoo!? > The New Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo. > http://search.yahoo.com > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> <HTML><HEAD> <META http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=3D"text/html; = charset=3Diso-8859-1"> <META content=3D"MSHTML 6.00.2726.2500" name=3DGENERATOR> <STYLE></STYLE> </HEAD> <BODY bgColor=3D#ffffff> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hi Ian, and how much time would be = required on a=20 daily basis?</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">a. beginning investor</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">b. intermediate investor</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">c. trained investor</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">d. expert investor</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Thanks,</FONT></DIV> <DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Gene</FONT></DIV> <BLOCKQUOTE=20 style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; = BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px"> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV> <DIV=20 style=3D"BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: = black"><B>From:</B>=20 <A title=3Dianstm@shaw.ca href=3D"mailto:ianstm@shaw.ca">Ian</A> = </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A = title=3Dcanslim@lists.xmission.com=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= </DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Saturday, May 24, 2003 = 1:11=20 PM</DIV> <DIV style=3D"FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [CANSLIM] = Reasonable=20 Goal?</DIV> <DIV><BR></DIV>Hi Tomas:<BR><BR>I'll be the exception here and say = that I=20 believe that 40% a year is a<BR>reasonable goal (particularly up until = you=20 have about $600,000 - IMHO,<BR>outsized returns are a lot easier with = smaller=20 amounts of money) if you are<BR>extremely disciplined about:<BR>* = cutting=20 losses very early<BR>* REALLY letting your winners run<BR>* committed = to=20 buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You don't<BR>have to = believe=20 in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to<BR>understand that = most of=20 these rallies are good for about 2 months and 30%<BR>runs in the=20 indices).<BR><BR>NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all = seem to=20 fly in the face<BR>of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely=20 essential to achieve<BR>outsized gains.<BR><BR><BR>My personal goals = are to=20 double every two years (about 42% per year), and I<BR>have been = achieving it.=20 As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 years<BR>ago this = weekend, and is=20 up about 118% to date:<BR><A=20 = href=3D"http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/F= undPublicPa">http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa= /wa/FundPublicPa</A><BR>ge?source=3DDoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi=20 (and this was during an ugly market, and<BR>with an average of 30% = cash, and=20 no shorting allowed, and using strict SEC<BR>mutual fund asset = allocation=20 rules)<BR><BR>As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound = the=20 gains is<BR>taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the=20 US.<BR><BR>Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up = 80-200%. If you<BR>slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts = happened,=20 you would easily<BR>be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months.<BR><BR>IMHO, = with an=20 unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think = that<BR>somewhere in=20 the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where these<BR>kind of = gains=20 become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional = money<BR>manager, who=20 must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living from<BR>fees, = it really=20 is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for the<BR>individual = investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their<BR>'money = making=20 universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of<BR>available = equities,=20 so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of = gains.<BR><BR>Consider SSYS=20 and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during the last<BR>2 = months.=20 Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when the<BR>rally = started=20 (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the = average<BR>probably=20 under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, = you<BR>probably=20 couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a = huge<BR>impact on=20 you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions = for<BR>yourself,=20 these two stocks alone could have netted you=20 20-30%.<BR><BR><BR>Cheers,<BR><BR>Ian<BR><BR><BR>Marketocracy has 100+ = funds=20 that were up 30% in the last 30 days alone:<BR><A=20 = href=3D"http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/R= ankingViewP">http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa= /wa/RankingViewP</A><BR>age?date=3D20030516&subject=3D30Days%20Rankin= gs%2081%20%2D%20100<BR>IMHO,=20 that is only possible because of the small position=20 sizes.<BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR><BR>----- Original Message=20 -----<BR>From: Tomas <<A=20 href=3D"mailto:tomas986@yahoo.com">tomas986@yahoo.com</A>><BR>To: = canslim=20 canslim <<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>= ><BR>Sent:=20 Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM<BR>Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable=20 Goal?<BR><BR><BR>> This question is for the senior CS'ers. If = an<BR>> investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is = to<BR>> make=20 $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal?<BR>> The assumption = is that=20 he will start with $10K and add<BR>> between $5-$10K capital every=20 year.<BR>><BR>> I understand that there are many factors = like<BR>> -=20 how discipline you are<BR>> - how diligence you are<BR>> - how=20 persistent you are<BR>> - how you learn from your mistake=20 and<BR>> do post analysis of your trades<BR>> - and = even how=20 lucky you are.<BR>><BR>> But assumption that the investor is = decently=20 good on<BR>> those factors. What is your = opinion?<BR>><BR>>=20 Thanks,<BR>> tomas<BR>><BR>><BR>>=20 __________________________________<BR>> Do you Yahoo!?<BR>> The = New=20 Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo.<BR>> <A=20 = href=3D"http://search.yahoo.com">http://search.yahoo.com</A><BR>><BR>&= gt;=20 -<BR>> -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>>= ; -In=20 the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>> -"unsubscribe=20 canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.<BR><BR><BR>-<BR>-To=20 subscribe/unsubscribe, email "<A=20 = href=3D"mailto:majordomo@xmission.com">majordomo@xmission.com</A>"<BR>-In= the=20 email body, write "subscribe canslim" or<BR>-"unsubscribe = canslim". Do=20 not use quotes in your email.<BR></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML> - ------=_NextPart_000_04B5_01C321F6.39DB7160-- - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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