Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal?
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 16:11:30 -0600
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Hi Ian - I like your response better than mine - much more optimistic. Following up on Gene's question, approximately how much time do you spend (daily, weekly, ??) to achieve those gains? If this is too personal a question, please say so. For me, discipline seems to be a function of time. That is, the more time I have available, the more disciplined my trading becomes. When other demands on my time make me less focused, I tend to make stupid mistakes. Rolf - ----- Original Message ----- From: "Ian" <ianstm@shaw.ca> > Hi Tomas: > > I'll be the exception here and say that I believe that 40% a year is a > reasonable goal (particularly up until you have about $600,000 - IMHO, > outsized returns are a lot easier with smaller amounts of money) if you are > extremely disciplined about: > * cutting losses very early > * REALLY letting your winners run > * committed to buying strong breakouts during confirmed rallies (You don't > have to believe in a 'secular bull' to do this - but you do need to > understand that most of these rallies are good for about 2 months and 30% > runs in the indices). > > NONE of these 3 things are remotely easy. They all seem to fly in the face > of basic human nature. But they are all absolutely essential to achieve > outsized gains. > > > My personal goals are to double every two years (about 42% per year), and I > have been achieving it. As an example, my virtual fund was started 2 years > ago this weekend, and is up about 118% to date: > http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/FundPublicPa > ge?source=DoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi (and this was during an ugly market, and > with an average of 30% cash, and no shorting allowed, and using strict SEC > mutual fund asset allocation rules) > > As a Canadian, the hardest part about trying to compound the gains is > taxes - I'm not sure how difficult that is in the US. > > Consider all the strong post-March 12 breakouts that are up 80-200%. If you > slowly went to fully invested as these breakouts happened, you would easily > be up 40% in the last 2 1/2 months. > > IMHO, with an unintentional focus on microcaps and nanocaps, I think that > somewhere in the neighbourhood of $2,000,000 - $4,000,000 is where these > kind of gains become more difficult. Therefore, for the professional money > manager, who must look after 10's of millions just to earn a living from > fees, it really is unreasonable to expect 40%+ annual gains. But for the > individual investor with a much smaller amount of $$$, I believe their > 'money making universe' is an order of magnitude larger in terms of > available equities, so they have a reasonable chance at these kind of gains. > > Consider SSYS and HITK, which have been 2 of the best stocks during the last > 2 months. Both of them were trading under 100,000 shares a day when the > rally started (SSYS had a 13,000 share day in early march, with the average > probably under 50,000). As a professional manager with $100,000,000, you > probably couldn't or wouldn't buy enough of either of these to make a huge > impact on you fund. But as an individual, if you buy 6-10 positions for > yourself, these two stocks alone could have netted you 20-30%. > > > Cheers, > > Ian > > > Marketocracy has 100+ funds that were up 30% in the last 30 days alone: > http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/wa/RankingViewP > age?date=20030516&subject=30Days%20Rankings%2081%20%2D%20100 > IMHO, that is only possible because of the small position sizes. > > > > > > > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com> > To: canslim canslim <canslim@lists.xmission.com> > Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 12:57 PM > Subject: [CANSLIM] Reasonable Goal? > > > > This question is for the senior CS'ers. If an > > investor is 29 years old right now, and his goal is to > > make $2M by 40 to retire, is this a reasonable goal? > > The assumption is that he will start with $10K and add > > between $5-$10K capital every year. > > > > I understand that there are many factors like > > - how discipline you are > > - how diligence you are > > - how persistent you are > > - how you learn from your mistake and > > do post analysis of your trades > > - and even how lucky you are. > > > > But assumption that the investor is decently good on > > those factors. What is your opinion? > > > > Thanks, > > tomas > > > > > > __________________________________ > > Do you Yahoo!? > > The New Yahoo! Search - Faster. Easier. Bingo. > > http://search.yahoo.com > > > > - > > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. > > > - > -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" > -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or > -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email. - - - -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com" - -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or - -"unsubscribe canslim". Do not use quotes in your email.
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