Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: Roger Tawa <roger@tawacentral.net>
Subject: RE: APPX (was: [CANSLIM] ADVP)
Date: Sat, 24 May 2003 19:22:46 -0400
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This is a multi-part message in MIME format. - --Boundary_(ID_KwGU9xKco6+2t6/7DRl31A) Content-type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1 Content-transfer-encoding: 7BIT Hi Katherine, As always, thank you very much for your commentary. One thing I have heard very much is that you should have a profit taking plan in place *before* you buy a stock. In this case, my plan was to sell if it reached 20% profit, so I am going to stick with this plan. ================================================= Roger Tawa http://tawacentral.net/ [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] [When you stop, you're done.] -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 5:37 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: APPX (was: [CANSLIM] ADVP) Hi Roger, APPX is another one of those cases where you have a better perspective on the action since the breakout by using a weekly chart: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/APPXWkly052303.JPG It's hard not to have a situation where price declines a bit since the breakout, because that day, the volume was 150%+ of average. Subsequent days can still be on respectable volume, but viewed in contrast to the big breakout day, might give the impression of wedging action. In that case, you want to ask whether the action, in general, is doing what you'd expect. Are up days on high volume and down days on low volume? Is there a significant decrease in volume on up days in comparison to the beginning of the run or is it still respectibly high? Is the price churning (very little upward price movement on high volume)? Etc. http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/APPX052303.JPG That doesn't mean APPX won't flash warning signs in the near future, but right now it looks pretty healthy. That also shouldn't affect your profit taking plan in any way. If you've chosen to follow the 20%-take-it-and-run rule, then you should absolutely stick to your plan. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 10:58 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP Thanks again Katherine. In the case of APPX, I stock which I purchased at 26.99$ as it broke out on 05-14, and which I still hold, I have been looking for any signs of whether I should get out. although the rsrank is great and the rsline is making new all-time highs, it has definitely been wedging since the breakout. Do you consider the rsline action outweighs the wedge or not? Please feel free not to answer this question given my vested interest in APPX. Note that, given I am very new at this, I will, much more than likely, invoke the take-your-20%-profit-and-run rule with this one. ================================================= Roger Tawa http://tawacentral.net/ [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] [When you stop, you're done.] -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 12:36 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP Hi Roger, Contrary to what might seem to be the case, a strong stock will most often see the RSLine stay flat or (preferrably) rise even as price is falling. That occurs because, despite the pullback, the price action *relative to the market as a whole* is still showing superiority. For example, if the price of stock A is falling at a *slower rate* than the market is falling, the RSLine will rise. That's why you can have a stock's RSLine rise even as the price is falling on the left side of the cup and why it's possible for the RSLine to make new highs, even as the stock's price is drifting down within the handle (which is ideally what you would like to see). However, I wouldn't get overly concerned about a minor pullback in the RSLine during the handle as long as the overall upward trend of the RSLine remains intact. That can happen when the market as a whole is very strong. What you really want to keep your eye on is a very marked negative divergence in the direction of the RSLine relative to the price action in the stock. This will happen in ill formed bases and in stocks that are currently rising after a previous breakout. If the price continues to rise while the RSLine heads markedly South, that's a warning sign the move is running out of gas. This is the same reasoning you would use when looking for the "wedging" action discussed here on the list previously. That is, if price is rising on ever decreasing volume, that divergence shows a lack of conviction in the move and raises the likelihood that the stock will correct. That's why you ideally want to see volume *rise* on the right side of the cup. Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Saturday, May 24, 2003 10:13 AM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP Thanks Katherine. As for the down-sloping ud volume in the handle, I guess that's to be expected in a proper handle given that the price should be falling. would the same be true for the rsline and rsrank? Assuming the handle is forming due to a general market downturn, you might expect the rsline and rank to (at least) be flat for a true leader. Does that make sense? ================================================= Roger Tawa http://tawacentral.net/ [One thing about paradigms: shift happens.] [When you stop, you're done.] -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Friday, May 23, 2003 1:56 PM To: canslim@lists.xmission.com Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ADVP Hi Roger, I think with a stock like ADVP, particularly where the base is lengthy, it's easiest to put the volume action in perspective when looking at the weekly chart. I don't think there's anything worrisome about an decreasing ADV line as it's simply summarizing action over the last 50 days and so will vary a bit, particularly if there were some very high volume days early in the 50 day period that then drop off the calculation as time marches on. That would be particularly true when much of the base falls outside that 50 day period. In this case, ADVP's base is more than a year. If there were high volume on the left side or near the bottom of the base as the stock pushed down and then made a high volume reversal at the bottom, then eventually, those volume bars fall outside the 50 days and action on the right side of the base takes over in the ADV calculation. So, all in all, I'd put ADVP's base into perspective by looking at the weekly action: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ADVPWkly052303.JPG and a close up of the action on the right side of the base and handle: http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ADVP052303.JPG Katherine -----Original Message----- From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 8:42 PM To: CANSLIM Subject: [CANSLIM] ADVP Hi all, I am looking at ADVP. I do not own it at this time. It seems to have pretty good fundies. As for the chart, the handle looks good, going down along the lows and volume drying up. The rsline is making new highs at the pp. the rsrank and ud volume are good. Finally, the weekly chart also looks good, except it seems to have a downtrend in the ud volume. The one thing I'm not sure about is the lack of volume in rhs of the cup. In fact, the 50 day ADV actually goes down during the rhs of the cup, except for one spike near the pp. Is this a big concern? 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