RE: Lagging RSLines (was: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking Out)

From: "inderjit" <inderjit@adelphia.net>
Subject: RE: Lagging RSLines (was: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking Out)
Date: Tue, 27 May 2003 22:00:18 -0400
Previous Article (by Author): RE: [CANSLIM] usna, stcr david rossing
Top of Thread: RE: Lagging RSLines (was: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking Out) "Katherine Malm"
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 <http://www.breakout.com/main.html> Break-Out Flashing Image
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- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine Malm
Sent: Tuesday, May 27, 2003 9:22 PM
To: Canslim@Lists.Xmission.Com
Subject: RE: Lagging RSLines (was: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking Out)
=20
=20
Hi jans,
=20
Your comment about the leaders showing lagging RSLines peaked my
interest.
So, here's my personal impressions along with some statistics to back
them
up...
=20
I think the bottom line is that when you have a group of early leaders
that
break out early in a rally, the leaders' RSLines will likely pull back
for a
couple of reasons. First, it's not uncommon for a strong stock to pause
along its rising price path. When this pause occurs while the rest of
the
market is not particularly strong, the RSLines of these leaders will
continue to rise because their sideways price action will still be
outperforming a market where prices as a whole are not rising
particularly
quickly (or at all). However, if the stock is pausing while additional
monies are flowing into the market in general and market prices are
rising,
this pause in the leaders' price action will translate into a pullback
in
the RSLine. Second, if instead, the leaders do indeed continue to rise,
but
at a time when the market as a whole is strong and getting stronger,
then
the RSLines will fall back, because the rise is relative to a market
where
prices are increasing at a fast clip. In other words, the positive
divergence between the price action of the leaders and the rest of the
market begins to dissipate as the market gets stronger.
=20
To illustrate this in action, I took all the cup with handle (cwh)
breakouts
for the month prior to and after the follow thru day on 3/17/03. While
this
doesn't represent *all* breakouts during the period, it's a very good
barometer, because the cwh pattern is by far the most common
intermediate
term pattern. I chose the 2 months around the FTD so that I could  have
a
steady state group of "leaders" and then measure their technical
condition
against the market as a whole between the beginning of that period and
5/23/03 (which is when I prepared the stats). For the period between
2/17/03
and 4/17/03, there were 71 distinct stocks that broke out. I used the
same
methodology we use for measuring the industry scores for use in
assigining
industry rank and then measured that group score from 2/17 through 5/23.
The
score is derived by assigning points to each stock based on the RSRank,
%
off 52 week high, price relative to the 50dMA, price relative to the
200dMA,
an 50 realtive to 200dMA. (For a more in depth description, see
http://www.breakoutwatch.com/industry_methodology.htm )
=20
Here is a graph of the score for this group of leaders against the
market as
a whole:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsGroupA.jpg
=20
Notice that wile the group as a whole has pulled back in score ever so
slightly, it is still at a very high value of 90 out of a possible 100.
Notice also that the market as whole has been very strong during this
period, rising very steadily. What that translates into is a pause in
the
action of the leaders that is very mild against a strengthening market.
That
would mean that the RSLines would then fall back a bit.
=20
Here's another view point to demonstrate the strength of the market
during
that same period:
=20
First is the total number of cwh breakouts by week:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsByWk.jpg
Notice the dearth of breakouts in mid-2002 and the more recent increase.
=20
You can also see the increase in the total number of cwh breakouts by
looking at the cumulative number since the 10/10/2 market low:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsCumul.jpg
We're now up to more than 300 cumulative breakouts and the rate of
breakouts
per week has accelerated since mid March when we posted the FTD.
=20
Here's another viewpoint to show the cwh breakouts action. This is a
rolling
total. At any point in time, the number you see shows the total number
of
breakouts over the prior 13 week period:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsRolling13wks.jpg
Notice how the cumulative total rose into late 2002, then churned a bit
until about 2/21/3. That's about 1 month prior to the FTD 3/17/3 and
corresponds to the beginning of the period I selected for highlighting
the
"leaders" in the rally.
=20
Now, one last view to show the strength of the breakouts and the market
as a
whole during the latest 13 week period. I've taken three 13 week periods
and
measured the action of the cwh breakouts during each of those periods.
The
chart shows the price action of the breakouts 3 weeks after they
originally
broke out. I used 3 weeks, because WON often suggests that we look to
see
not only *how many* stocks are setting up and breaking out, but also
*how
strong* those breakouts are in the first few weeks of their breakout:
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/PctIncAfterBO.JPG
=20
Notice that for the period 11/25/02 through 2/21/03 that only 1.3% of
breakouts were up >=3D20% and only about 16% were up 5% or more in the
first 3
weeks. The number of failures (down more than 8% in the first 3 weeks)
was
also very high, 25% of all the breakouts. However, in the latest 13 week
period (2/24/03 through 5/23/03), 12.7% of the breakouts during the
period
are up >=3D20%, and 47% are up >=3D5%. At the same time, failures are =
down
considerably at 7.8% of the total breakouts during the period. Looking
at
the performance to date of all breakouts during the latest 13 week
period,
57.2% are now up >=3D5% since their breakout and only 6% have failed.
=20
Bottom line.... the leaders are still strong (average technical score
for
the group 90 out of 100) + market continues to serve up more breakouts +
market continues to serve up successful breakouts and shows a small % of
failed breakouts =3D RSLines of the leaders will fall back a bit.
=20
That said, this is a record of the market as it is today. If the number
of
breakouts begins to wane, if the price action of breakouts falls back,
if
breakouts begin to fail, and/or if the price/volume action in the
indexes
begins to show churning and/or distribution, then those would be signs
the
rally is over. By itself, a slight pullback in the RSLines of the
leaders
does not, by itself indicate problems.
=20
Katherine
=20
=20
- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Spencer48@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, May 22, 2003 3:53 PM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking Out
=20
=20
Charley:
=20
     I don't know if its my gut (or just indigestion due to my
uncertainty),
but a lot of leaders seem to me to have lagging or weak Relative
Strength
Lines.  To me, when the leaders portray this, it indicates that not too
many
funds
are interested in buying (ie. they expect a correction shortly).
=20
     This is just an impression I have from looking look at a lot of
charts
everyday; it is not based on any rigorous statistical analysis (al=E0 =
what
Katherine might do-to all our benefits, I should accurately add).
=20
jans
=20
=20
In a message dated 5/22/2003 4:53:45 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
Chazmoore@aol.com writes:
=20
<< SHFL closed at $25.00 on volume that was up over 423%, clearly
indicating
 strong buying pressure, but not enough to push the price much over the
pivot.
 Tomorrow could be interesting. My gut tells me there may be more
sellers
lurking
 around waiting to get out. Notice that the handle volume did not really
dry
up
 that much.
=20
 Charley >>
=20
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<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
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<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-----Original Message-----<br>
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com] On Behalf Of Katherine =
Malm<br>
Sent: </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"27" =
Year=3D"2003">Tuesday, May 27,
 2003</st1:date> <st1:time Hour=3D"21" Minute=3D"22">9:22 =
PM</st1:time><br>
To: Canslim@Lists.Xmission.Com<br>
Subject: RE: Lagging RSLines (was: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking =
Out)<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Hi jans,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Your comment about the leaders showing lagging RSLines peaked my
interest.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>So, here's my personal impressions along with some statistics to =
back
them<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>up...<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>I think the bottom line is that when you have a group of early =
leaders
that<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>break out early in a rally, the leaders' RSLines will likely =
pull back
for a<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>couple of reasons. First, it's not uncommon for a strong stock =
to pause<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>along its rising price path. When this pause occurs while the =
rest of
the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>market is not particularly strong, the RSLines of these leaders =
will<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>continue to rise because their sideways price action will still =
be<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>outperforming a market where prices as a whole are not rising
particularly<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>quickly (or at all). However, if the stock is pausing while =
additional<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>monies are flowing into the market in general and market prices =
are
rising,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>this pause in the leaders' price action will translate into a =
pullback
in<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>the RSLine. Second, if instead, the leaders do indeed continue =
to rise,
but<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>at a time when the market as a whole is strong and getting =
stronger,
then<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>the RSLines will fall back, because the rise is relative to a =
market
where<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>prices are increasing at a fast clip. In other words, the =
positive<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>divergence between the price action of the leaders and the rest =
of the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>market begins to dissipate as the market gets =
stronger.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>To illustrate this in action, I took all the cup with handle =
(cwh)
breakouts<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>for the month prior to and after the follow thru day on =
</span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"3" Day=3D"17" Year=3D"2003">3/17/03</st1:date>. While =
this<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>doesn't represent *all* breakouts during the period, it's a very =
good<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>barometer, because the cwh pattern is by far the most common
intermediate<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>term pattern. I chose the 2 months around the FTD so that I =
could<span
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0 </span>have =
a<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>steady state group of &quot;leaders&quot; and then measure their
technical condition<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>against the market as a whole between the beginning of that =
period and<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"23" =
Year=3D"2003"><font size=3D2
 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt'>5/23/03</span></font></st1:date>
(which is when I prepared the stats). For the period between <st1:date =
Month=3D"2"
Day=3D"17" Year=3D"2003">2/17/03</st1:date><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>and </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"4" Day=3D"17" =
Year=3D"2003">4/17/03</st1:date>,
there were 71 distinct stocks that broke out. I used the =
same<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>methodology we use for measuring the industry scores for use in
assigining<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>industry rank and then measured that group score from 2/17 =
through
5/23. The<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>score is derived by assigning points to each stock based on the =
RSRank,
%<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>off 52 week high, price relative to the 50dMA, price relative to =
the
200dMA,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>an 50 realtive to 200dMA. (For a more in depth description, =
see<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.breakoutwatch.com/industry_methodology.htm =
)<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Here is a graph of the score for this group of leaders against =
the
market as<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>a whole:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsGroupA.jpg<o:p></o=
:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Notice that wile the group as a whole has pulled back in score =
ever so<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>slightly, it is still at a very high value of 90 out of a =
possible 100.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Notice also that the market as whole has been very strong during =
this<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>period, rising very steadily. What that translates into is a =
pause in
the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>action of the leaders that is very mild against a strengthening =
market.
That<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>would mean that the RSLines would then fall back a =
bit.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Here's another view point to demonstrate the strength of the =
market
during<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>that same period:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>First is the total number of cwh breakouts by =
week:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsByWk.jpg<o:p></o:p=
></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Notice the dearth of breakouts in mid-2002 and the more recent
increase.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>You can also see the increase in the total number of cwh =
breakouts by<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>looking at the cumulative number since the =
</span></font><st1:date
Month=3D"10" Day=3D"10" Year=3D"2002">10/10/2</st1:date> market =
low:<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsCumul.jpg<o:p></o:=
p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>We're now up to more than 300 cumulative breakouts and the rate =
of
breakouts<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>per week has accelerated since mid March when we posted the =
FTD.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Here's another viewpoint to show the cwh breakouts action. This =
is a
rolling<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>total. At any point in time, the number you see shows the total =
number
of<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>breakouts over the prior 13 week =
period:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/cwhBreakoutsRolling13wks.jpg<o=
:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Notice how the cumulative total rose into late 2002, then =
churned a bit<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>until about </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"2" Day=3D"21" =
Year=3D"2003">2/21/3</st1:date>.
That's about 1 month prior to the FTD <st1:date Month=3D"3" Day=3D"17" =
Year=3D"2003">3/17/3</st1:date>
and<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>corresponds to the beginning of the period I selected for =
highlighting
the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>&quot;leaders&quot; in the rally.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Now, one last view to show the strength of the breakouts and the =
market
as a<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>whole during the latest 13 week period. I've taken three 13 week
periods and<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>measured the action of the cwh breakouts during each of those =
periods.
The<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>chart shows the price action of the breakouts 3 weeks after they
originally<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>broke out. I used 3 weeks, because WON often suggests that we =
look to
see<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>not only *how many* stocks are setting up and breaking out, but =
also
*how<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>strong* those breakouts are in the first few weeks of their =
breakout:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/PctIncAfterBO.JPG<o:p></o:p></=
span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Notice that for the period </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"11" =
Day=3D"25"
Year=3D"2002">11/25/02</st1:date> through <st1:date Month=3D"2" =
Day=3D"21" Year=3D"2003">2/21/03</st1:date>
that only 1.3% of<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>breakouts were up &gt;=3D20% and only about 16% were up 5% or =
more in the
first 3<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>weeks. The number of failures (down more than 8% in the first 3 =
weeks)
was<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>also very high, 25% of all the breakouts. However, in the latest =
13
week<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>period (</span></font><st1:date Month=3D"2" Day=3D"24" =
Year=3D"2003">2/24/03</st1:date>
through <st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"23" =
Year=3D"2003">5/23/03</st1:date>), 12.7% of
the breakouts during the period<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>are up &gt;=3D20%, and 47% are up &gt;=3D5%. At the same time, =
failures are
down<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>considerably at 7.8% of the total breakouts during the period. =
Looking
at<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>the performance to date of all breakouts during the latest 13 =
week
period,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>57.2% are now up &gt;=3D5% since their breakout and only 6% have =
failed.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Bottom line.... the leaders are still strong (average technical =
score
for<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>the group 90 out of 100) + market continues to serve up more =
breakouts
+<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>market continues to serve up successful breakouts and shows a =
small %
of<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>failed breakouts =3D RSLines of the leaders will fall back a =
bit.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>That said, this is a record of the market as it is today. If the =
number
of<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>breakouts begins to wane, if the price action of breakouts falls =
back,
if<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>breakouts begin to fail, and/or if the price/volume action in =
the
indexes<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>begins to show churning and/or distribution, then those would be =
signs
the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>rally is over. By itself, a slight pullback in the RSLines of =
the
leaders<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>does not, by itself indicate =
problems.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Katherine<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-----Original Message-----<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>From: =
owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of =
Spencer48@aol.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Sent: </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"5" Day=3D"22" =
Year=3D"2003">Thursday,
 May 22, 2003</st1:date> <st1:time Hour=3D"15" Minute=3D"53">3:53 =
PM</st1:time><o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] SHFL Breaking =
Out<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Charley:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0=A0=A0=A0 </span>I don't =
know if its my gut
(or just indigestion due to my =
uncertainty),<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>but a lot of leaders seem to me to have lagging or weak Relative
Strength<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Lines.<span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0 </span>To me, when =
the leaders
portray this, it indicates that not too =
many<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>funds<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>are interested in buying (ie. they expect a correction =
shortly).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0=A0=A0=A0 </span>This is =
just an impression I
have from looking look at a lot of charts<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>everyday; it is not based on any rigorous statistical analysis =
(al=E0
what<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Katherine might do-to all our benefits, I should accurately =
add).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>jans<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>In a message dated </span></font><st1:date Month=3D"5" =
Day=3D"22"
Year=3D"2003">5/22/2003</st1:date> 4:53:45 PM Eastern Daylight =
Time,<o:p></o:p></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>Chazmoore@aol.com writes:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>&lt;&lt; SHFL closed at $25.00 on volume that was up over 423%, =
clearly
indicating<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0</span>strong buying =
pressure, but not
enough to push the price much over the<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>pivot.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0</span>Tomorrow could be =
interesting.
My gut tells me there may be more sellers<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>lurking<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0</span>around waiting to get =
out.
Notice that the handle volume did not really =
dry<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>up<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0</span>that =
much.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><span style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0</span>Charley =
&gt;&gt;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
&quot;majordomo@xmission.com&quot;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-In the email body, write &quot;subscribe canslim&quot; =
or<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-&quot;unsubscribe canslim&quot;.<span =
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0
</span>Do not use quotes in your email.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-To subscribe/unsubscribe, email =
&quot;majordomo@xmission.com&quot;<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-In the email body, write &quot;subscribe canslim&quot; =
or<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

<p class=3DMsoPlainText><font size=3D2 face=3D"Courier New"><span =
style=3D'font-size:
10.0pt'>-&quot;unsubscribe canslim&quot;.<span =
style=3D'mso-spacerun:yes'>=A0
</span>Do not use quotes in your email.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>

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