RE: COLM (was: [CANSLIM] THO)

From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Subject: RE: COLM (was: [CANSLIM] THO)
Date: Fri, 30 May 2003 12:36:19 -0500
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Price is there, but once again, the volume is way too low to count as a
breakout.


Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com


                                                                                                                            
                    "Eddie Garratt"                                                                                         
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                    05/30/2003 12:22 PM                                                                                     
                    Please respond to                                                                                       
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It's breaking out as we speak.  I might be a little premature, but it's
getting close.

- -----Original Message-----
From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com [mailto:michael_niemotka@baxter.com]
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2003 10:22 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE:COLM (was: [CANSLIM] THO)



Katherine,

I can't believe that after all that analysis, you won't give us the correct
answer to what will happen with COLM... Is the crystal ball in the shop for
repairs?  <grin>

Mike



Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com




                    "Katherine Malm"

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canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    Sent by:                     cc:

                    owner-canslim@lists.xm       Subject:     RE:COLM (was:
[CANSLIM] THO)
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                    05/30/2003 11:41 AM

                    Please respond to

                    canslim









Hi Mike,

Let me answer your question generically, as I think it provides the
explanation without going into site-specific details and so is more
appropriate for discussion here on the list.

The first clue is to look at COLM's base as of 5/28/03.

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/COLM052803.JPG

The question is, as of today, is COLM still in the base? Take a look of the
close-up action since 5/28:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/COLM053003.JPG

Notice that on 5/29, COLM attempted a breakout, but while the stock closed
above the pivot, it did not actually breakout, because volume was too low.
In short, COLM is no longer in its base. This happens to stocks and is the
reason one would want to be watchful of both recent attempted breakouts
that
are still near their pivot (thus yours and Ed's interest in COLM), and also
stocks that have recently staged a successful breakout on volume but are
still within 5% of the original pivot. The point with COLM is that it has
hesitated near its logical area of support. The lack of conviction on the
move here shows that there is not yet enough buying power to enable it to
completely break free of the  base. While "worth watching" it's not
currently *in* the base, and therefore, not on our current watchlist.

From here one of several things can happen:
(1) COLM will pull back fairly significantly and form a "fresh" handle. The
new pivot would then be the $49.50 high set on 5/29.
(2) COLM will fail altogether and roll back into its base.
(3) COLM will hesitate here and then gather steam and forge ahead. This
"multi-day" breakout is relatively common, but I don't know that I've ever
seen statistics on the success rates of multi-day breakouts vs. strong
breakouts on volume in a single day, so couldn't give you a good
risk-assessment clue.

Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2003 10:05 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] THO



Katherine,

Interestingly enough,  I reached the same conclusion.  Thanks for the
input.  So back onto COLM, I saw that it was not on a watchlist at
cwhcharts , do you know why?

Mike



Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    "Katherine Malm"
                    <kmalm@earthlink.net>        To:
canslim@lists.xmission.com
                    Sent by:                     cc:
                    owner-canslim@lists.xm       Subject:     RE: [CANSLIM]
THO
                    ission.com


                    05/30/2003 10:56 AM
                    Please respond to
                    canslim







Hi Mike,

Interestingly, THO and COLM have very similar fundamental (CEF) component
scores. THO=8.6 to COLM=8.59 (max 11). COLM pulls ahead in the overall CE
score thanks to a far better technical (CET) component score. COLM=6.32 and
THO =4.63 (max 7)

As a further means of distinguishing between the stocks, I think the real
tale is told when looking at THO's Industry condition:

http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/BldgMobileRV052303.JPG

For me, that's reason enough to eliminate THO as a comparative potential
investment.

Katherine



- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2003 9:35 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] THO


This is another one  that seems to be breaking out from a cwh.  Between it
and COLM, COLM has slightly better CE scores, so I am leaning towards it.


Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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