RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT

From: Karen White <karenwhite7@charter.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] VRNT
Date: Fri, 06 Jun 2003 08:51:47 -0700

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Hi... watching VRNT and see its really dropping today and cant figure out 
why? buying opportunity.?. I had turned off my news source for a brief trip 
and now cant find anything...  ideas?  thx, karen
At 09:07 AM 6/6/2003 -0500, you wrote:
>Hi Dave,
>
>Heaven's no, I'm still a fundamentals junkie. I didn't refer to VRNT
>specifically in my reply, just to Tomas' question as to whether a B/O on an
>earnings report was valid.
>
>As to other posts I might've made recently, they might have seemed "100%
>technical" only because folks were asking about the charts, not the stock on
>the whole. If I haven't done a due diligence myself, I'll rarely spend the
>time doing that just to answer someone's question on the list, but looking
>at a chart and marking it up only takes a couple of minutes. You can take a
>look at a recent post I made on APPX to see what a fundamentals junkie I
>really am. In it, I gave an extensive analysis of what I'd uncovered in my
>due diligence last January, including a slew of red flags based on what I'd
>read in the SEC reports.
>
>I don't pay the least attention to broker's analysis or recommendations, so
>that would have no influence on my own personal decision-making process on a
>stock. The same would hold true for the PE, though I do look at in in
>comparison to other stocks within the same industry and to the market as a
>double check on things. In this case, VRNT is 1.6 times the S&P average.
>That doesn't necessarily mean that the S&P average is "sane", but that VRNT
>is in line for what one would expect from a growth stock.
>
>As the market is a forward-looking mechanism, the price action does indeed
>reflect an expectation of future earnings and growth. That, in combination
>with a track record, shows what one might expect from a stock. In WON's
>writings, he often talks about stocks in "turnaround" mode and suggests that
>with as little as 2 quarters of improvement under their belt (along with
>other requirements), that one could consider a stock a viable candidate.
>Personally, with a stock like VRNT, public only since May of last year, I
>see a darn good track record. Add that to their business, which serves a
>very important and growing market (security), and I'll trust the technicals
>on this one if they say the stock is forging ahead. That doesn't mean it
>can't turn on a dime, but for the time being, the chart says full speed
>ahead.
>
>Take a look at the fundamental detail for VRNT and you can see the same
>numbers that I am looking at:
>http://www.cwhcharts.com/canslim/
>
>Katherine
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
>[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Davellil5@aol.com
>Sent: Friday, June 06, 2003 7:40 AM
>To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
>Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] VRNT
>
>
>Katherine:
>
>Puzzled!
>
>Are we now 100% technicians?  No more "fundies"?
>
>VRNT has had negligible sales and earnings growth over the past 5 years.
>However, sales in latest quarter was up 22% over same qtr. last yr., and
>earnings
>up 75% (to a big 14 cents/sh).
>
>Projected EPS gain this year over last year is 30% and another 27% next year
>(consensus of 6 brokers).
>
>So, no history of performance.  What basis for believing that the very
>recent
>improvement can be maintained, brokers' optimism?  If the brokers are so
>confident, why are they rating VRNT at 2.8, not "Strong Buy"?
>
>Trailing PE at 190.
>
>Sounds like the market is betting on the come.  Is that good enough for
>CANSLIM these days?
>
>Reason for asking is that, in all the email about VRNT (and some other
>stocks
>of recent interest), I've seen no reference to "fundies".
>
>Regards, Dave
>
>
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