RE: VRNT (was: [CANSLIM] Stop losses and DHI)

From: Tomas <tomas986@yahoo.com>
Subject: RE: VRNT (was: [CANSLIM] Stop losses and DHI)
Date: Tue, 10 Jun 2003 21:52:30 -0700 (PDT)
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Katherine,

Question 4,5,6 may be hard to answer.  If I add "in my
watchlist" at the end of those questions, then it is
easier to answer.  My point is you are referring to
all the stocks I am monitoring on my radar, right?  I
guess so, or else there's no point in asking those 3
question since there are always some better stock out
there that you don't know about.

1) yes
2) yea
3) same as alway (for loss, sell at 7-8%; for
   win, depends on how the stock is doing).
4) hmmm, I think so... currently most of the stocks
   in my watchlist is extended.
5) no, not in my watchlist
6) no
7) I don't think I'm being stubborn and I don't feel
like I have to prove anything with this stock. :) 
This stock has very good fundies, if the technical is
right(market will go up), it is a good pick (IMHO).


Regards,
tomas

- --- Katherine Malm <kmalm@earthlink.net> wrote:
> Hi Tomas,
> 
> Here are some questions you might ask in making this
> kind of decision:
> 
> (1) If I buy it back, is it a low-risk entry?
> (2) If I buy it back, can I handle the price
> volatility that it typically
> displays?
> (3) If I buy it back, what will be my exit strategy,
> both for profit taking
> and for cutting losses?
> (4) Is this the best stock I can buy with my money?
> Or, would my money be
> better off in *any* other investment than this?
> (This is also a good
> question to ask when struggling with a sell
> decision.)
> (5) Are there other stocks that are either pulling
> back on lower volume and
> showing less volatility?
> (6) Are there other stocks, equally attractive, that
> are offering a low risk
> entry and/or a fresh breakout?
> (7) What is my real motivation for buying it back?
> For example, is it
> because I've answered all of the questions above and
> still feel that it is
> the best investment at the time? Is it because I
> want to prove I was
> something? Am I being smart or just stubborn? Etc.
> 
> Questions like this force the trader to be
> completely honest within
> him/herself and make consistently wise and
> emotionless decisions.
> 
> Regardless of your decision, there are times where
> it can take a couple of
> tries with the same stock to get it "right" and that
> is A-OK, as it is a
> compilation of factors acting on the stock all at
> the same time. On the
> other hand, sometimes when breakouts are whipsawing
> you one after the other,
> that's a sign that the rally may be wearing thin.
> One stock doesn't make a
> trend, but it's something to consider.
> 
> Katherine
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf
> Of Tomas
> Sent: Tuesday, June 10, 2003 7:45 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop losses and DHI
> 
> 
> VRNT is back to a little above the pivot point.
> Should I buy it back?  Or should I wait for a few
> days
> and see what the market is doing.  The market seems
> to
> be at a critical point where it is deciding if it
> will
> head north or south.
> 
> What is the rule for buying back a stock that had
> such
> a big dip 2 days after the BO with big volume, but
> is
> now gaining back ground?  Is the big dip a red flag
> enough to stay way from this stock?
> 
> With this stock, I feel like I am currently going
> through a common mistake made by newbie.
> 
> You experience investors better stop me if I am
> going
> to make a big mistake buying this stock back.  :)
> 
> tomas
> 
> --- Bill Triffet <btriffet@earthlink.net> wrote:
> > Hi Tomas,
> >
> > I think you partially answered yourself here. Had
> > you bought it on the day
> > of the breakout 6/3 you'd still be in (maybe...).
> >
> > Unfortunately VRNT gapped up the next day. I'd
> just
> > pass on it and wait for
> > a pullback which it did on 6/6. The huge volume of
> > the pullback though was a
> > red flag to me. I might have sold it even if I got
> > it in the range due to
> > that. Also given the fact I've been using 7%
> > stop-losses, I'd have been
> > stopped out as well.
> >
> > Btw, I never use overnight buy orders as there's
> > just too much volatility in
> > the first 30min. Also, I want to see the price as
> I
> > buy it.
> >
> > In the past I've used buy-limit orders for stocks
> I
> > felt were ready to
> > breakout. The issue there was to make sure it had
> > enough projected volume
> > for the day. If it closed up but on low volume I'd
> > almost always have to
> > sell the next day. For this  reason I just stick
> to
> > market orders for buys.
> > The trick is to get some free time during the work
> > day to "sneak a peek" at
> > my watchlist.
> >
> > --
> > Bill
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Tomas" <tomas986@yahoo.com>
> > To: <canslim@lists.xmission.com>
> > Sent: Monday, June 09, 2003 7:59 PM
> > Subject: Re: Re: [CANSLIM] Stop losses and DHI
> >
> >
> > > Bill,
> > >
> > > I did not buy DHI, but had a position on VRNT,
> > which
> > > went down 12% last Friday(no stop loss order in
> > > place).  I sold the stock this morning and
> > actually
> > > walked away with a 18% lost.  Post analysis:
> > >
> > > 1) BO on 6/3 with close $24.37 (Pivot point at
> > > $23.95).  Put an order to buy on 6/3 that night.
> > 6/4
> > > morning, order execute at $26.21 (about 9% above
> > pivot
> > > point + .10).  Bought extended, should have put
> a
> > > limit order instead of a market order?  But, if
> > use
> > > market order sometime will miss the boat on a
> good
> > > stock...
> > >
> > > 2) On 6/6, stock went down $2.99.  Sold today at
> > > $21.53.  Should have put a stop order when I
> > bought
> > > it?  Probably.
> > >
> > > Final note, if I bought it right, at pivot point
> +
> > > $.10, then I would still be in the stock today.
> > It
> > > never actually go below the 8%.  I guess my
> > trigger
> > > finger is too slow, and need to be faster next
> > time...
> > >
> > > So, this is why I am trying to figure out what
> > kind of
> > > orders (stop/lost, market, limit,...) I need to
> do
> > for
> > > buys and sells.  It's kind of though, since
> every
> > kind
> > > of order has its pro's and con's.
> > >
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > > tomas
> > >
> > >
> > > --- Bill Triffet <btriffet@earthlink.net> wrote:
> > > > Tomas,
> > > > To this day the main rule I've never disagreed
> > with
> > > > WON has been "preservation of capital". " Live
> > to
> > > > trade another day" is the way to go.
> > > >
> > > > Appling a trailing stop after you've made some
> > gains
> > > > may knock you out of the stock. Maybe it
> > continues
> > > > on up after that. Maybe not. The point is you
> > live
> > > > to trade another day.
> 
=== message truncated ===


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