Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Gene Ricci" <genr@swbell.net>
Subject: Fw: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100
Date: Wed, 18 Jun 2003 20:07:52 -0500
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Hi Katherine,=20
I went back to my original email and find that I asked: "Has any(one) =
been bold enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD Top =
100 list on the next day's open?" I further defined the top stocks as =
those meeting the minimum criteria of EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> A.
Hopefully my question didn't suggest that the criteria would find all =
the stocks with the potential for further huge gains. The data =
presented showed that although the Top 100 list contained stocks =
'extended' there was still ample room to garner significant returns =
without much work.=20
Maybe an explanation of 'my' CANSLIM is needed. It's a set of criteria =
that I use to cull stocks that have been identified by my tops down =
approach.... it does not use WON's recommended buy or sell rules per se =
.... and since I'm basically a support and resistance trader, based on =
the teachings of Stan Weinstein and Martin Pring, it only includes a =
basic knowledge of the many chart patterns.
I try to focus on the following (listed in my priority order):
1. money management
2. market timing and direction
3. stock selection to buy long or short
- -> I no longer even try to use CANSLIM in a down market because shorting =
is easier as well as a heck of a lot more profitable for me.
My goal is to continue to refine a daily process that allows me to =
identify good stocks, ride my winners, cut my losses and continue to =
grow my portfolio ... with minimum effort ... while preserving my =
capital.
- -----------------------------------
See my answers inserted in blue:
- ------------------------
> Hi Gene,
>
> I can take any list of "good stocks" at any point in time and
> *retroactively* choose the optimal time in the past to "buy and hold =
the
> list," particularly if during that same period of time 95% of stocks =
in the
> market place are rising off 3 year lows.
If the strategy itself is to buy and hold, at what point to you purchase =
the list (or the stocks from the list with EPS+RS>=3D190, AD>=3DA)?
When it is published, using position sizing as I do on all portfolios.
Why April 21?
That's when the list was a week old.
A strategy has to be robust in all time periods.=20
I agree that one wants it to be robust in all time periods. However in =
this case it's impossible to backtest because the list just appeared.
What if the IBD100 had been published in early March 2000?
Folks used DGO and IBD to buy the same class of stocks during that time =
period. The criteria was a little tighter EPS+RS =3D> 194 and A/D =3D> =
A. They also watched 'M'and used stops. The last piece of data that I =
saw showed them to be profitable in all years from 1996 until today.
> What if I'd purchased the EPS+RS stocks or the entire list and held =
on to
> them since then? What sort of returns would I be sitting on now?
If you were using stops and still owned them I would assume that your =
returns would be astronomical. This is not a buy/hold strategy. All of =
my strategies are you hold them until..............
>
> Why not purchase the stocks on 12/17/01 or 12/24/02 or any other date? =
I'm sure that the 194 A group had a strategy for those time periods.
What happens when a stock enters and leaves the list? When would one =
exit? How
> often would one reconstitute their portfolio? =20
Weed and seed (details highly classified)... good portfolio and money =
management process, initial and trailing stops ....=20
If instead of buying and > holding the entire list on 4/21, what if =
instead I'd purchased each and
> every stock as it broke out of a sound base on volume? I don't have =
access to your trades so only you can compare to the results that I =
showed. But hopefully you should be clearly ahead. This is a simpler =
approach that relies on the strong to get stronger approach. No =
hunting, no huge amounts of time spent, etc etc. Downside is less gain.
How would I have caught a breakout like TALX when the RS at the time of =
its breakout was a
> measely 53? Finding all breakouts is not nearly as important as =
minimizing my effort. This is not a breakout strategy, it is a buy =
strong stocks that are likely to get stronger strategy.=20
That flies in the face of mining a la CANSLIM rules, yet the IBD100 =
list doesn't recognize that.=20
I don't have an issue with their Top 100 list because I'm looking for =
strong stocks that will get stronger. IBD says that their list fully =
meets the criteria for featuring the 100 leading companies. Their =
rankings are based on a combo of each company's current/recent earnings =
growth, Composite Rating, ROE, sales growth and profit margins and =
relative price performance in the prior 12 months.
>
> Another example of this is the IBD weekly review index. The assumption =
for
> that index measure is that in order to achieve the same results as the
index one would have to (1) buy the entire list and (2) buy and sell the
components of the list as they were added or deleted. The index returns
also do not take into account the transaction costs of buying and =
selling each
> individual equity as the portfolio is jiggered from one week to the =
next.=20
I don't follow the IBD weekly review strategies. From what little I =
know, some of their established 'weed and seed' portfolio management =
strategies may be applicable to the Top 100 project. ... I've heard =
that during Bull markets WER strategies have done fairly well. No idea =
how they are working now. =20
Transaction costs are a don't care for me, I trade in a wrap account.
>
> Numbers like these you quoted are useful in demonstrating that these
*kinds* of stocks are doing well in the market since 4/21, but they =
don't
represent a realizable return on an actual "strategy."
A real money portfolio was started on 4/21 and I have money in my jeans =
from it.... and while I'll agree that most everything went up during =
that time period, I have to say...I wasn't looking at everything, only =
the Top 100 list.=20
It's too early in the data collection and measuring process to determine =
how this strategy will do over the long haul. Only data from real trades =
will tell me if the current weed and seed criteria needs to be modified.
Best,
Gene
>
> Katherine
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
> [mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene Ricci
> Sent: Tuesday, June 17, 2003 4:07 PM
> To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
> Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100
>
>
> Has any been bold enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from =
the IBD
> Top 100 list on the next day's open? Here's some data from two =
sources:
>
> If purchased on April 21 you would be up 25.42% and still holding =
on to
them
> (no stops applied).
>
> Minimal criteria EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> A. 6 positions =
with 25.42%
> gain: HITK GRMN SSYS TARO BCGI (loser but basing) JBSS.
>
> If purchased on April 11, 2003 you would be up 35% (same as above
criteria):
> HITK COH TARO
>
> How's this.... if you bought all of the stocks you would be up =
16.4%.
>
> regards,
> Gene
>
> P.S. data is a couple of days old.
>
>
>
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<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hi Katherine, </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I went back to my original email =
and find=20
that I asked: </FONT><FONT =
color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>"</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Times New Roman"><FONT color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>Has any(one) been =
bold enough=20
to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD Top 100 list on the =
next day's=20
open?"</STRONG></FONT> </FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I =
further defined=20
the top stocks as those meeting the minimum criteria of EPS+RS =3D> =
190 and A/D=20
=3D> A.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Hopefully my question didn't suggest =
that the=20
criteria would find all the stocks with the potential for further =
huge=20
gains. </FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">The data =
presented showed=20
that although the Top 100 list contained stocks 'extended' there was =
still ample=20
room to garner significant returns without much work. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">Maybe an explanation of 'my' CANSLIM =
is=20
needed. It's a set of criteria that I use to cull stocks that have =
been=20
identified by my tops down approach.... it does not use WON's =
recommended=20
buy or sell rules per se .... and since </FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I'm basically a support and resistance trader, =
based on the=20
teachings of Stan Weinstein and Martin Pring, =
it only=20
includes a basic knowledge of the many chart patterns.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I try to focus on the following =
(listed=20
in my priority order):</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">1. money management</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">2. market timing and =
direction</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">3. stock selection to buy long or=20
short</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">-> I no longer even try to use =
CANSLIM=20
in a down market because shorting is easier as well as a heck of a lot =
more=20
profitable for me.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">My goal is to continue to refine =
a daily=20
process that allows me to identify good stocks, ride my=20
winners, cut my losses and continue to grow my portfolio ... =
with=20
minimum effort ... while preserving my capital.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS">-----------------------------------</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">See my answers inserted in =
<STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff>blue:</FONT></STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff>------------------------</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>> Hi Gene,<BR>><BR>> I can take any list of "good stocks" =
at any=20
point in time and<BR>> *retroactively* choose the optimal time in the =
past to=20
"buy and hold the<BR>> list," particularly if during that same period =
of time=20
95% of stocks in the<BR>> market place are rising off 3 year =
lows.</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>If the strategy itself is to buy and hold, at what point to =
you=20
purchase the list (or the stocks from the list with =
EPS+RS>=3D190,=20
AD>=3DA)?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>When it is =
published,=20
using position sizing as I do on all portfolios.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Why April 21?</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>That's when =
the list was a=20
week old.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>A strategy has to be robust in all time periods. </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>I agree that =
one wants it=20
to be robust in all time periods. However in this case it's =
impossible to=20
backtest because the list just appeared.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV>What if the IBD100 had been published in early March =
2000?</DIV></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>Folks used DGO =
and IBD to=20
buy the same class of stocks during that time period. The criteria=20
</STRONG></FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>was =
a little=20
tighter EPS+RS =3D> 194 and A/D =3D> A. They also watched=20
'M'</STRONG></FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" =
color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>and used=20
stops. The last piece of data that I saw showed them to be =
</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>profitable in =
</STRONG></FONT><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>all years from 1996 until =
today.</STRONG></FONT></DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT><BR>> What if I'd purchased =
the=20
EPS+RS stocks or the entire list and held on to<BR>> them since =
then?=20
What sort of returns would I be sitting on now?</DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><STRONG>If you =
were using=20
stops and still owned them I would assume that your=20
</STRONG></FONT><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">returns would be=20
astronomical. </FONT></STRONG></FONT><STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT =
face=3D"Comic Sans MS">This is not a buy/hold strategy. All of=20
my strategies are you hold them=20
until..............</FONT><BR></FONT></STRONG>><BR>> Why not =
purchase the=20
stocks on 12/17/01 or 12/24/02 or any other date? </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>I'm sure that =
the 194 A=20
group had a strategy for those time=20
periods.</STRONG></FONT></DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG>
<DIV><BR>What happens when a stock enters and leaves the list? When =
would=20
one exit? How<BR>> often would one reconstitute their =
portfolio?<STRONG><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff>Weed and seed =
(details=20
highly classified)... <IMG alt=3D"" hspace=3D0=20
src=3D"cid:015701c335ff$35364eb0$6401a8c0@desktop" align=3Dbaseline =
border=3D0>good=20
portfolio and money management process, initial and trailing=20
stops .... </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV>If instead of buying and > holding the entire list on 4/21, what =
if=20
instead I'd purchased each and<BR>> every stock as it broke out of a =
sound=20
base on volume? <FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS"><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#0000ff>I don't have access to your trades so only you can =
compare to the=20
results that I showed.</FONT></STRONG> <STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff>But =
hopefully</FONT></STRONG></FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff><STRONG> you should be clearly ahead. This is =
a simpler=20
approach that relies on the strong to get stronger approach. No =
hunting,=20
no huge amounts of time spent, etc etc. Downside is less=20
gain.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>How would I have caught a breakout like TALX when the RS at =
the time=20
of its breakout was a<BR>> measely 53? <STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic =
Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff>Finding all breakouts is not nearly as important=20
as minimizing my effort. This is not a breakout strategy, it =
is a buy=20
strong stocks that are likely to get stronger strategy. =
</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV>That flies in the face of mining a la CANSLIM rules, yet the =
IBD100=20
list doesn't recognize that. </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>I don't have =
an issue with=20
their Top 100 list because I'm looking for strong stocks that will get=20
stronger. IBD says that their list fully meets the=20
criteria for featuring the 100 leading companies. Their rankings =
are=20
based on a combo of each company's current/recent earnings =
growth,=20
Composite Rating, ROE, sales growth and profit margins =
and=20
relative price performance in the prior 12 months.</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<DIV>><BR>> Another example of this is the IBD weekly review =
index. The=20
assumption for<BR>> that index measure is that in order to achieve =
the same=20
results as the<BR>index one would have to (1) buy the entire list and =
(2) buy=20
and sell the<BR>components of the list as they were added or deleted. =
The index=20
returns<BR>also do not take into account the transaction costs of =
buying=20
and selling each<BR>> individual equity as the portfolio is jiggered =
from one=20
week to the next. </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS">I don't=20
follow the IBD weekly review strategies. From what little I know, =
some of=20
their established 'weed and seed' portfolio management strategies may be =
applicable to the Top 100 project. =
...</FONT></FONT></STRONG><STRONG><FONT=20
color=3D#ff0000> <FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"><FONT =
color=3D#0000ff>I've heard=20
that during Bull markets WER strategies have done fairly =
well. =20
No idea how they are working now.</FONT> =20
</FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=3D#ff0000></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff>Transaction =
costs are a=20
don't care for me, I trade in a wrap=20
account.</FONT></STRONG><STRONG><BR></STRONG>><BR>> Numbers like =
these you=20
quoted are useful in demonstrating that these<BR>*kinds* of stocks =
are=20
doing well in the market since 4/21, but they don't<BR>represent a=20
realizable return on an actual "strategy."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>A real money =
portfolio was=20
</STRONG></FONT><STRONG><FONT color=3D#0000ff><FONT=20
face=3D"Comic Sans MS">started </FONT><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans =
MS">on 4/21 and=20
I have money in my jeans from it.... and while I'll agree that most =
everything=20
went up during that time period, I have to say...I wasn't looking at=20
everything, only the Top 100 list. =
</FONT></FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" color=3D#0000ff>It's too early =
in the data=20
collection and measuring process to determine how this strategy will do =
over the=20
long haul. Only data from real trades will tell me if the =
current=20
weed and seed criteria needs to be modified.</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#ff0000></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"=20
color=3D#0000ff>Best,</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS" =
color=3D#0000ff><STRONG>Gene</STRONG></FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=3Dltr=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<BLOCKQUOTE=20
style=3D"PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; =
BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV><FONT face=3D"Comic Sans MS"></FONT><BR>><BR>>=20
Katherine<BR>><BR>> -----Original Message-----<BR>> From: =
<A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com">owner-canslim@lists.xmis=
sion.com</A><BR>>=20
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of Gene =
Ricci<BR>>=20
Sent: Tuesday, June 17, 2003 4:07 PM<BR>> To: <A=20
=
href=3D"mailto:canslim@lists.xmission.com">canslim@lists.xmission.com</A>=
<BR>>=20
Subject: [CANSLIM] IBD Top 100<BR>><BR>><BR>> Has any been =
bold=20
enough to just buy and hold the top stocks from the IBD<BR>> Top =
100 list=20
on the next day's open? Here's some data from two=20
sources:<BR>><BR>> If purchased on April 21 you would be up =
25.42% and=20
still holding on to<BR>them<BR>> (no stops =
applied).<BR>><BR>>=20
Minimal criteria EPS+RS =3D> 190 and A/D =3D> =
A. 6=20
positions with 25.42%<BR>> gain: HITK GRMN SSYS TARO BCGI =
(loser=20
but basing) JBSS.<BR>><BR>> If purchased on April 11, 2003 you =
would=20
be up 35% (same as above<BR>criteria):<BR>> HITK COH =
TARO<BR>><BR>>=20
How's this.... if you bought all of the stocks you would be up=20
16.4%.<BR>><BR>> regards,<BR>> Gene<BR>><BR>> P.S. =
data is a=20
couple of days=20
old.<BR>><BR>><BR>></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML=
>
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