RE: [CANSLIM] MVL

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] MVL
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 12:31:28 -0500

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Hi Mike,


Since MVL's been running hard since late November (or January, depending how
you view it), you have to start looking for sell rules related to "extension
from the base." Here are some additional sell rules to review:

Signs of potential climax runs:
If a stock's price is overextended from its base and:
(1) its price closes for a larger increase than on any prior up days
(ultimate top often occurs on heaviest volume day since the beginning of the
advance)
(2) if it has been advancing rapidly and opens on a gap up in price (advance
is probably near its peak)
(3) the stock's price breaks badly for several days and does not rally
(4) suddenly makes its greatest one-day price drop since the beginning of
the move (consider in context of additional sell signals,industry group
weakness, market weakness, fundamental weakness in stock)
(5) a stock split is announced and the stock runs up sharply for 1-2 weeks.

Other signals of topping:
(1) Stock has advanced a number of months and price rises 25-50% on heavy
volume in a couple of weeks
(2) Churning: Stock trades on heavy volume but can't manage meaningful price
gains
(3) Wedging: New price highs on low volume
(4) Price repeatedly falls on high volume
(5) Leader in industry group puts in climax top

Overextension from the base is a nebulous term, but generally you're into
"extended" territory when:
(1) the stock gets into "rubberband sell rule territory"--i.e. >=25% above
the 50dMA AND >=70% above the 200dMA
(2) the current forward PE has expanded to 120%  of the trailing PE (i.e.
2.2 times) at the time of the breakout.


Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Monday, June 23, 2003 11:00 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] MVL


Hello all

I currently have a position in MVL, and am up nicely, currently 55%, and at
one point, was up 100%.  I sold some when it hit 150% of the 50dMA per a
WON "rule", and today sold another 1/4 of my position at a 15% trailing
loss.

For the remaining position, I am wondering if I should still hang on , or
if the action over the last couple of weeks (higher volume, price drops)
are warning signs to exit out totally.  Earning are in a couple of weeks,
and rumor is that they will exceed expectations.

Any thoughts?

Thanks

Mike


Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



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