Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.From: "Rolf Hertenstein" <rolfh@mindspring.com>
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] Fourth Distribution Day -- potentially in the last 16 sessions
Date: Mon, 23 Jun 2003 11:55:55 -0600
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I can up with my own system to help me track accumulation and distribution
days, and especially to avoid IBD's masking of distribution days that were
not "unequivocal". On days with higher volume, an index gets a D- if it was
down less than 1%, a D if down 1-2%, and a D+ if down > 2%. Same idea for
accumulation days: on higher volume days it's an A- if up <1%, A if up 1-2%,
and A+ if up > 2%.
Using this system, here's the number of acumulation and distribution days
for the last 3 weeks (15 trading days ended June 20):
DOW SP500 NASD
A- 3 4 1
A 2 2 2
A+ 1 1 2
D- 0 1 1
D 1 1 2
D+ 0 0 0
I wasn't sure what to do with the DOW on 17 June. Volume was up, but the
DOW wasn't even down 0.1%, so it's not included in the tally. I don't have
a D+ on the DOW or SP500 for the past few months. Last D+ day on the NASD
was 31 March. A's still have it in the past few weeks, who knows about the
next few.
I wouldn't call you paranoid in any case; healthy skepticism is good IMHO.
Rolf
- ----- Original Message -----
From: "Pritish Shah" <pshah@lason.com>
I guess people are thinking why the heck am I so paranoid. This probably is
the third distribution day in the last two to three weeks on Nasdaq.
I am trying to guage whether other people are seeing the same things as I
am.
IBD said in its Big Picture that one of the D-Days did not have enough
selling preassure. However, the volume was higher than the previous day by
just a tad and was also above the average volume.
Plus, I noticed on Friday that 60%+ of all the advisors were bullish on the
market (contrarian indicator). A lot of the leaders are reversing their
gains. I had to sell few stocks in the last couple days. Some violated the
8% (Eg. AZN) rule and some were going to turn into a loss (Eg. CELG).
I have also noticed that microcaps have been more stable. (TCHC, WFSI and
others)
Regards,
Pritish
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