RE: [CANSLIM] 50dMA as a sell sign, MVL

From: michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] 50dMA as a sell sign, MVL
Date: Tue, 24 Jun 2003 11:40:39 -0500

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Katherine,

I am REALLY disappointed with the "hand written" notes, can't I have nice
neat computer generated charts with annotations? (Just kidding, of course!)

What an awesome analysis!   Thanks for providing both the conservative and
aggressive side for the reasoning.  In the case of MVL, it would have to
get back to $19.71 to hit the 50 dMA (EMA) and that is not looking good.
It also has dropped below the support that should be around that same point
as seen on the chart a couple of weeks back.  (I will need to figure out
how so include a link to a chart, do you have any suggestions on how to do
that, since I don't have a website?)

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com


                                                                                                                            
                    "Katherine Malm"                                                                                        
                    <kmalm@earthlink.net>        To:     canslim@lists.xmission.com                                         
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                    owner-canslim@lists.xm       Subject:     RE: [CANSLIM] 50dMA as a sell sign, MVL                       
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                    06/24/2003 11:22 AM                                                                                     
                    Please respond to                                                                                       
                    canslim                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                            




Hi Mike,

I look at a situation like that in two ways, each a different strategy with
different odds of success. I think that's the reason why WON's sell rules
are often so obscure. The "rules" one uses are flexible depending on the
underlying market conditions and the person's personal risk tolerance. Here
are 2 different strategies, neither of which considers a scenario where one
would take profits on the way up, which is available in either case.

Strategy 1: Sell into climax
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ClimaxRunStrategyScenario1.JPG

Strategy 2: Wait for show of support at 50dMA
http://www.cwhcharts.com/katherine/ClimaxRunStrategyScenario2.JPG

(BTW, I think the show of support at the 50dMA has got to come in within 5
days. I am also skeptical when the price wedges up on low volume up to the
50dMA. Better to see very good volume, and/or a tail-up showing a strong
sign of support.)

In the end, it's just a matter of assessing the odds and picking a strategy
that fits the market and the person.

Katherine

- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of
michael_niemotka@baxter.com
Sent: Tuesday, June 24, 2003 8:05 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: Re: [CANSLIM] 50dMA as a sell sign, MVL



One could argue that if all the other conditions are still right in the
stock that this could be a secondary entry point, but of course at a much
higher risk than buying on the breakout, especially for MVL, since it has
moved up a lot since breakoing out.

Mike

Mike Niemotka , PE
Sr. Principal Engineer
Baxter Healthcare Corporation
Route 120 & Wilson Road
Round Lake, IL 60073
Tel (847) 270-4075
Fax (847) 270-4525
michael_niemotka@baxter.com



                    Davellil5@aol.com
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                    ission.com                   Subject:     Re: [CANSLIM]
50dMA as a sell sign, MVL


                    06/24/2003 08:55 AM
                    Please respond to
                    canslim






What if it does move back above the 50DMA -- on good volume -- is that a
buy
signal?

Dave

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