RE: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss

From: "Katherine Malm" <kmalm@earthlink.net>
Subject: RE: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss
Date: Fri, 11 Jul 2003 14:23:36 -0500
Next Article (by Date): [CANSLIM] Trading Journal (was Break outs or pullbacks) "Gene Ricci"
Previous Article (by Date): Re: [CANSLIM] Break outs or pullbacks "John P"
Articles sorted by: [Date] [Author] [Subject]
HI John,

Sometimes the devil's in the details on stocks such as ANN. To put things
into perspective, first look at the recent base itself:

http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANN070303Wkly.JPG

Pretty good base, but the sideways looking handle on the weekly chart looks
a bit suspect.

Here's an up close of the handle itself:
http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNHandle071003.JPG

The slight wedging in the handle means that the final shakeout may not have
occurred, meaning that this one may not be quite ready to rock and roll.

I'm familiar with ANN, having been a favorite shopping haunt for many years.
But this is also a company that has had its problems with store management,
appealing designs for its target audience and general poor inventory
mangement. I'm more likely to go in and see how much of the current season
is on the sales rack than to buy these days. That's always a good indication
as to how they're doing. That aside, here's a look a the fundamentals in
greater detail, which gives a better view than my subjective "sale rack"
musings:

http://www.breakoutwatch.com/katherine/ANNCE071003.JPG


That aside, the question as to how to deal with a high volume pullback after
the breakout is probably better addressed in looking at the technicals,
particularly the handle. The action after the move above the pivot doesn't
surprise me, in fact, I think the odds favor a continued shakeout here more
than a continued move up. The only question is whether or not you're willing
to sit it out and see if it can muster up a low volume decline followed by a
stronger move up knowing the odds of it falling back into the base are
probably 50/50.

Katherine




- -----Original Message-----
From: owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com
[mailto:owner-canslim@lists.xmission.com]On Behalf Of John Calkins
Sent: Friday, July 11, 2003 12:55 AM
To: canslim@lists.xmission.com
Subject: [CANSLIM] ANN at 8% loss


Hi CANSLIMers,

I bought ANN on Tuesday - breakout day - and today it pulled back below its
pivot on higher volume than its breakout day.  In looking at at the intraday
trading, there was a huge volume/price move early in the day then the stock
was quiet the rest of the day.  I watched closely during the day for a price
swing at the end of the day so as not to jump the gun on selling.  I saw the
price creep up a little at the end of the day so I held.  I have herd not to
sell onfirst day intra-day movement but to watch the following day for
continued movement.  I almost pulled the plug anyway. Would it be wise to
concider to sell Friday if the price does not rebound on volume during the
day?  This is the hardest part for me.  I will of coarse sell if it drops to
my mental 8% stop.  I do not like the stock anymore because it did not move
as I anticipated.  I would have understood a drop on low volume, but this
high volume drop gets my attention every time.  This is the part that is so
dissapointing.  You spend weeks making a profit on one stock, then the next
two drop like a rock.  My selling at 7-8 % are engrained now.  With the
entry within a couple of percent of the pivot, at least I get a second day
of watching before I pull the plug.  The last stock I dropped was JOYG but
that was clear to me on the volume and I got out even including my
commistions.  This down day on lower volume in the market has me holding off
a bit.  When I bought ANSS, a few days later the price moved down and
"kissed the pivot" as Katherine says and it volume is predictible and still
is.  So I guess my question is would you sell ANN because of yesterdays
price/volume action or give it a second chance?

JC


- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.



- -
- -To subscribe/unsubscribe, email "majordomo@xmission.com"
- -In the email body, write "subscribe canslim" or
- -"unsubscribe canslim".  Do not use quotes in your email.
Go to Jeff Salisbury LWGate Home Page.